America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The Philadelphia Fed Fourth Quarter 2011 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on November 14. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following expectations: GDP: full-year 2011 : 1.8% full-year 2012 : 2.4% full-year 2013 : 2.7% full-year …
Yesterday saw the release of the Economic Projections of the Federal Reserve Board Members and Federal Reserve Bank Presidents, November 2011 (pdf). Of note, since January, the Federal Reserve has been reducing its economic growth forecasts. _____ I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with …
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The October Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of October 24, 2011: – The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: An excerpt from the September 27 update titled “Index forecasts …
On March 28 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Here is the most recent chart. This chart was last updated on October 20, incorporating data from 12-31-93 to 10-14-11 on a weekly basis. The present level …
On October 7, I wrote a post about the latest Business Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Survey and the Duke/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey titled “CEO & CFO Surveys 3Q 2011.” Subsequent to that post, on October 11, The Conference Board released its 3rd Quarter CEO Confidence Survey. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI Growth is …
The October Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published today, October 13, 2011. The headline is “U.S. Incomes Seen Stagnant Through 2021 .” I found various aspects of the survey to be interesting, including the following excerpts: Americans’ incomes have dropped since 2000 and they aren’t expected to make up the lost ground before 2021, …
On September 29 the Business Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Survey was released for the 3rd quarter. The September Duke/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey (pdf) was released on September 13. Both contain a variety of statistics regarding how executives view business and economic conditions. In the CEO survey, of particular interest is the CEO Economic Outlook Index, which decreased …
On September 30 ECRI released a statement titled “U.S. Economy Tipping Into Recession.” My thoughts on ECRI’s work are complex. While I don’t necessarily agree with their comments in this September 30 statement, I do find the following excerpts to be especially notable: Early last week, ECRI notified clients that the U.S. economy is indeed …
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The September Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of September 26, 2011: – The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch: – The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: An excerpt …