America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
I found a few items of interest in the September Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey. Perhaps the most interesting were the questions asked of the economists, including “Why is the U.S. recovery so disappointingly slow?” Also, similar to recent surveys in which this double-dip question has been asked, the survey said “The economists on …
I have mentioned The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) in a variety of posts, first in a March 30 post and then in the monthly Updates on Economic Indicators. I view the CFNAI (which is usually expressed via a 3-month moving average denoted CFNAI-3) as being among the most valuable of commonly referenced official …
In the August 16-August 29 Bloomberg BusinessWeek, there is a quote from Jeremy Siegel in which he says, “The stock market’s telling us there’s some good things happening. And I don’t think it’s only what they think Bernanke is going to say. There is now a very broad consensus that this…is not going to develop …
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The August Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of August 23, 2010: The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch: The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: An excerpt …
This post highlights current readings from the Consumer Metrics Institute. Previous posts solely concerning the Consumer Metrics Institute (CMI) can be found on July 27 and March 31; as well CMI data is included in the monthly “Updates On Economic Indicators.” Here is a chart of CMI’s Daily Growth Index: (click on chart images to …
I found a few items of interest in the August Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey. Perhaps the most interesting (and perhaps provocative item) was the following: “”It is irresponsible nonsense to claim that tax cuts ‘pay for themselves,’ ” said Nicholas Perna of Perna Associates.” As well, there a variety of interesting questions asked …
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The July Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of July 26, 2010: The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch: The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: An excerpt …
I have been following The Consumer Metrics Institute’s work since March. I have previously written two posts focusing on their work (both found on March 31), as well as included it in the monthly “Updates On Economic Indicators.” To briefly summarize, I find their work and methodologies very interesting, especially given that they appear quite …
As I commented in the July 12 post: “For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.” Along those lines, I would like to make comments on the ECRI WLI …
I found a few items of interest in The July Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey. The economists surveyed continue to place a relatively low probability on a “double-dip” recession. As stated in the article, “Economists, on average, now see the odds of double-dip recession at 20%.” As well, there a variety of interesting questions …