On September 30 ECRI released a statement titled “U.S. Economy Tipping Into Recession.”
My thoughts on ECRI’s work are complex. While I don’t necessarily agree with their comments in this September 30 statement, I do find the following excerpts to be especially notable:
Early last week, ECRI notified clients that the U.S. economy is indeed tipping into a new recession. And there’s nothing that policy makers can do to head it off.
More than three years ago, before the Lehman debacle, we were already warning of a longstanding pattern of slowing growth: at least since the 1970s, the pace of U.S. growth – especially in GDP and jobs – has been stair-stepping down in successive economic expansions.
It’s important to understand that recession doesn’t mean a bad economy – we’ve had that for years now. It means an economy that keeps worsening, because it’s locked into a vicious cycle.
Here’s what ECRI’s recession call really says: if you think this is a bad economy, you haven’t seen anything yet.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1131.42 as this post is written