The U.S. Economic Situation – May 23, 2025 Update

Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood.  While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …

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Updates Of Economic Indicators May 2025

The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The May 2025 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of May 22, 2025: The CFNAI, with a current reading of -.25: source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …

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Philadelphia Fed – 2nd Quarter 2025 Survey Of Professional Forecasters

The Philadelphia Fed 2nd Quarter 2025 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on May 16, 2025.  This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2025:  1.4% full-year 2026:  1.6% full-year 2027: …

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Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of May …

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S&P500 EPS Forecasts For 2024-2027 As Of May 9, 2025

As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of May 9, 2025, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts.  For reference, the …

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Standard & Poor’s S&P500 EPS Estimates 2025 – 2026 – May 9, 2025

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of May 9, 2025: Year 2025 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $257.91/share -From …

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Jerome Powell’s May 7, 2025 Press Conference – Notable Aspects

On Wednesday, May 7, 2025 FOMC Chair Jerome Powell gave his scheduled May 2025 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Jerome Powell’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript.  These comments are excerpted from the “Transcript of …

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Building Financial Danger – May 8, 2025 Update

My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts on this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.”  These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematical conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment …

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