Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – January 15, 2021 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Advisor Perspectives’ …

Read moreLong-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – January 15, 2021 Update

The January 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The January 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 14, 2021. The headline is “WSJ Survey: U.S. Economic Growth Will Exceed 4% in 2021.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. An …

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Disturbing Charts (Update 40)

The following is the latest update of 10 charts that depict various aspects of the U.S. economic and financial situation. I find these charts portray disturbing long-term trends. These trends have been in effect for years, even during the longest U.S. economic expansion that recently ended. [The June 8 NBER BCDC declaration of U.S. recession …

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Charts Indicating Economic Weakness – January 2021

U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators.  This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. The level and trend of economic growth is especially notable at this time. As seen in various measures and near-term projections, the U.S. economy …

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Recession Probability Models – January 2021

Although there was an official declaration of U.S. recession on June 8, 2020 (as discussed in the “Recession Declared For The United States By The NBER BCDC” post), the following discussion is warranted for many reasons. Among the reasons is that two of the measures mentioned below are “forward-looking” in nature. There are a variety …

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U-3 And U-6 Unemployment Rate Long-Term Reference Charts As Of January 8, 2021

Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective.  Both charts are from the St. …

Read moreU-3 And U-6 Unemployment Rate Long-Term Reference Charts As Of January 8, 2021

3 Critical Unemployment Charts – January 2021

As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment. However, even if one chooses to look at the …

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Building Financial Danger – January 8, 2021 Update

My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts on this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.”  These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematical conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment …

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10-Year Treasury Yields – Two Long-Term Charts As Of January 6, 2021

I have written extensively about the importance of U.S. interest rate levels.  Rising interest rates have substantial ramifications for many aspects of the current-day economy.  My commentaries with regard to interest rates and the bond bubble are largely found under the “bond bubble” tag.   From an intervention perspective commentary is found under the “Intervention” …

Read more10-Year Treasury Yields – Two Long-Term Charts As Of January 6, 2021