America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the April 2, 2020 update (reflecting data through March 27, 2020) is 5.1434. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read more Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts on this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.” These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematical conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment … Read more Building Financial Danger – April 8, 2020 Update
My latest discussion concerning the U.S. bond market as being an exceedingly large asset bubble can be found on “The Immense Bond Market Bubble And Future Economic Consequences” page. The existence of a bubble of this size is highly noteworthy and vastly problematical. The effects this asset bubble has had – and, more importantly – … Read more Discussion Concerning The Bond Market Bubble And Characteristics
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is … Read more Recession Probability Models – April 2020
“Stock market capitalization to GDP” is a notable and important metric regarding stock market valuation. In February of 2009 I wrote of it in “Does Warren Buffett’s Market Metric Still Apply?” On the Advisor Perspective site there is an update depicting this “stock market capitalization to GDP” metric. As seen in the April 2, 2020 … Read more Stock Market Capitalization To GDP – Through Q4 2019
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic … Read more Average Hourly Earnings Trends
Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective. Both charts are from the St. … Read more U-3 And U-6 Unemployment Rate Long-Term Reference Charts As Of April 3, 2020
As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment. However, even if one chooses to look at the … Read more 3 Critical Unemployment Charts – April 2020
For reference purposes, below are two charts of the VIX from year 2000 through Wednesday’s (April 1, 2020) close, which had a closing value of 57.06. Here is the VIX Weekly chart, depicted on a LOG scale, with the 13- and 34-week moving averages, seen in the cyan and red lines, respectively: (click on chart … Read more VIX Weekly And Monthly Charts Since The Year 2000 – April 2, 2020 Update
In the March 9, 2012 post (“Charts of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980“) I highlighted two charts for reference purposes. Below are those two charts, updated through the latest daily closing price. The first is a daily chart of the S&P500 (shown in green), as well as five prominent (AAPL, IBM, … Read more Charts Of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980 – April 2, 2020 Update