America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Recently Deloitte released their “CFO Signals” “High-Level Summary” report for the 2nd Quarter of 2020. As seen in page 3 of the report, there were 147 survey respondents. As stated: “Each quarter (since 2Q10), CFO Signals has tracked the thinking and actions of CFOs representing many of North America’s largest and most influential companies. All respondents are … Read more Deloitte “CFO Signals” Report Q2 2020 – Notable Aspects
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the May 14, 2020 update (reflecting data through May 8, 2020) is .6123. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read more Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
Jerome Powell gave an interview to “60 Minutes”, which was broadcast Sunday (May 17, 2020) night. The video of the Interview and transcript can be seen at “Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell On The Coronavirus-Ravaged Economy.” Below are Jerome Powell’s comments I found most notable in the order they appear in the transcript. (Please note … Read more Jerome Powell’s May 17, 2020 “60 Minutes” Interview – Notable Excerpts
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of May … Read more Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts
As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of May 18, 2020, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the … Read more S&P500 EPS Estimates 2020 Through 2022 And Prior Years’ EPS
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of May 14, 2020: Year 2020 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $111.65/share … Read more Standard & Poor’s S&P500 EPS Estimates 2020 & 2021 – May 14, 2020
The Philadelphia Fed 2nd Quarter 2020 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on May 15, 2020. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2020: -5.6% full-year 2021: 3.1% full-year 2022: … Read more Philadelphia Fed – 2nd Quarter 2020 Survey Of Professional Forecasters
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Advisor Perspectives’ … Read more Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – May 15, 2020 Update
I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 131 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable. These … Read more Disturbing Charts (Update 37)
The May 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on May 13, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Coronavirus to Cause 17% Unemployment in June.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. An excerpt: … Read more The May 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey