America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1945:Q4 through 2021:Q2). The last value (as of the September 23, 2021 update) is $141.667529 Trillion: (click on each chart to enlarge image) – Also of interest is the same metric presented on a “Percent Change from a Year Ago” basis, …
The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk post of September 23, 2021 titled “Fed’s Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $5.9 Trillion in Q2.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP. The underlying data is from the Federal Reserve’s Z.1 report, “Financial Accounts of the United States“: (click on chart …
On Wednesday, September 22, 2021 FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell gave his scheduled September 2021 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Jerome Powell’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript. These comments are excerpted from the …
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The September 2021 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of September 23, 2021: The CFNAI, with a current reading of .29: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood. While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …
On September 21, 2021, the Zillow Q3 2021 Home Price Expectations Survey results were released. This survey is done on a quarterly basis. An excerpt from the press release: Experts surveyed expect home prices nationwide to increase a cumulative 31.8% through 2025, the equivalent of an average annual rate of 5.7% — far below the current annual …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of September …
As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of September 17, 2021, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of September 15, 2021: Year 2021 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $198.62/share …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the September 16, 2021 update (reflecting data through September 10, 2021) is -.9710: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI2], retrieved from FRED, …