America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The Philadelphia Fed 3rd Quarter 2022 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on August 12, 2022. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2022: 1.6% full-year 2023: 1.3% full-year 2024: …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI3) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the August 11, 2022 update (reflecting data through August 5, 2022) is -2.1880: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI3], retrieved from FRED, …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating facets of U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. The level and trend of economic growth is especially notable at this time. As seen in various estimates, the probability of recession has grown significantly and the second …
My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts on this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.” These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematical conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment …
For reference purposes, below are five charts that display growth in payroll employment, as depicted by the Total Nonfarm Payroll measures (FRED data series PAYEMS). PAYEMS, which is seasonally adjusted, is defined in Financial Reserve Economic Data [FRED] as: All Employees: Total Nonfarm, commonly known as Total Nonfarm Payroll, is a measure of the number …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective. Both charts are from the St. …
As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment. However, even if one chooses to look at the …
For reference purposes, below are two charts of the VIX from year 2000 through the August 1, 2022 close, which had a closing value of 22.84. Here is the VIX Weekly chart, depicted on a LOG scale, with the 13- and 34-week moving averages, seen in the cyan and red lines, respectively: (click on chart …