Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the December 12, 2024 update (reflecting data through December 6, 2024) is -.5299: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …

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CEO Confidence Surveys 4Q 2024 – Notable Excerpts

On December 10, 2024, the Business Roundtable released its CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 4th Quarter of 2024.   Notable excerpts from this release, titled “Business Roundtable Q4 Economic Index Shifts Higher on CEO Expectations and Plans for 2025“: The overall Index rose 12 points from last quarter to 91, the highest level in …

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NFIB Small Business Optimism – November 2024

The November NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, December 10, 2024. The headline of the Economic Trends report is “Small Business Optimism Jumps Above 50-Year Average in November.” The Index of Small Business Optimism increased by 8.0 points to 101.7. Here is an excerpt that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily agree …

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Building Financial Danger – December 8, 2024 Update

My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts on this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.”  These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematical conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment …

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Average Hourly Earnings Trends

I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …

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U-3 And U-6 Unemployment Rate Long-Term Charts As Of December 6, 2024

Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective.  Both charts are from the St. …

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3 Critical Unemployment Charts – December 2024

As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment. However, even if one chooses to look at the …

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