America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds.Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM Money … Read more Money Supply Charts Through August 2020
Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood. While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, … Read more The U.S. Economic Situation – September 23, 2020 Update
For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1945:Q4 through 2020:Q2). The last value (as of the September 21, 2020 update) is $118.955335 Trillion: (click on each chart to enlarge image) – Also of interest is the same metric presented on a “Percent Change from a Year Ago” basis, … Read more Total Household Net Worth As Of 2Q 2020 – Two Long-Term Charts
The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk post of September 21, 2020 titled “Fed Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $6.2 Trillion in Q2.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP. The underlying data is from the Federal Reserve’s Z.1 report, “Financial Accounts of the United States“: (click on chart … Read more Total Household Net Worth As A Percent Of GDP 2Q 2020
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The September 2020 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of September 21, 2020: The CFNAI, with a current reading of .79: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National … Read more Updates Of Economic Indicators September 2020
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Advisor Perspectives’ … Read more Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – September 18, 2020 Update
On Wednesday, September 16, 2020 FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell gave his scheduled September 2020 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Jerome Powell’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript. These comments are excerpted from the … Read more Jerome Powell’s September 16, 2020 Press Conference – Notable Aspects
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of September … Read more Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts
As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of September 16, 2020, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the … Read more S&P500 EPS Estimates Concerning Years 2020, 2021, And 2022
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of September 10, 2020: Year 2020 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $113.67/share … Read more Standard & Poor’s S&P500 EPS Estimates 2020 & 2021 – September 10, 2020