America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The October 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 17, 2021. The headline is “Supply-Chain Bottlenecks, Elevated Inflation to Last Well Into Next Year, Survey Finds.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section. …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of October …
As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of October 18, 2021, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of October 7, 2021: Year 2021 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $198.26/share …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Advisor Perspectives’ …
The following is the latest update of 10 charts that depict various aspects of the U.S. economic and financial situation. I find these charts portray disturbing long-term trends. These trends have been in effect for years. These charts raise a lot of questions. As well, they highlight the “atypical” nature of our economic situation from …
On October 14, 2021 the latest CFO Survey (formerly called the “Duke/CFO Global Business Outlook”) was released. It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions. In this CFO Survey press release, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them: Three-fourths of U.S. …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 14, 2021 update (reflecting data through October 8, 2021) is -.8827: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI2], retrieved from FRED, …
On October 7, 2021, The Conference Board released the Q3 2021 Measure Of CEO Confidence. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 67, down from 82. [note: a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses] Notable excerpts from this October 7, 2021 Press Release include: Current Conditions CEOs’ assessment of general …
U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating facets of U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. The level and trend of economic growth is especially notable at this time. As seen in various measures and near-term projections, the U.S. …