America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from the Doug … Read moreLong-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – June 14, 2019 Update
The June 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on June 13, 2019. The headline is “Trump Tariffs Are Short-Term Pain Without Long-Term Gain, Economists Say.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. An … Read moreThe June 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey
U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. At this time, the readings of various indicators are especially notable. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. While many U.S. economic indicators – including GDP – are indicating economic growth, others … Read moreCharts Indicating Economic Weakness – June 2019
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities … Read moreDeflation Probabilities – June 10, 2019 Update
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the June 6, 2019 update (reflecting data through May 31, 2019) is -1.191. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
The May NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, June 11, 2019. The headline of the Economic Trends report is “Small Business Optimism Roars Back, Rivaling Historic Highs.” The Index of Small Business Optimism increased in May by 1.5 points to 105.0. Here is an excerpt that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily … Read moreNFIB Small Business Optimism – May 2019
My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts on this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.” These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematical conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment … Read moreBuilding Financial Danger – June 10, 2019 Update
The June 2019 Livingston Survey (pdf) published on June 7, 2019 contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast. It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: Jun. 28, 2019 2860.0 Dec. 31, 2019 2900.0 June 30, 2020 2950.0 Dec. 31, 2020 3042.7 These figures represent the median value across the forecasters on the survey’s panel. … Read moreS&P500 Price Projections – Livingston Survey June 2019
In the November 13, 2013 post (“Not In Labor Force Statistic“) I featured editorial commentary from the Wall Street Journal, as well as an accompanying long-term chart, with regard to the number of people not working. Also, on February 9, 2015 I wrote another post titled “Unemployment And The ‘Not In Labor Force’ Statistic,” in … Read more“Not In Labor Force” Statistic – As Of June 2019
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic … Read moreAverage Hourly Earnings Trends