America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk post of December 12, 2024 titled “Fed’s Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $4.8 Trillion in Q3.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP. The underlying data is from the Federal Reserve’s Z.1 report, “Financial Accounts of the United States“: As seen in …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the December 12, 2024 update (reflecting data through December 6, 2024) is -.5299: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
On December 10, 2024, the Business Roundtable released its CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 4th Quarter of 2024. Notable excerpts from this release, titled “Business Roundtable Q4 Economic Index Shifts Higher on CEO Expectations and Plans for 2025“: The overall Index rose 12 points from last quarter to 91, the highest level in …
The November NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, December 10, 2024. The headline of the Economic Trends report is “Small Business Optimism Jumps Above 50-Year Average in November.” The Index of Small Business Optimism increased by 8.0 points to 101.7. Here is an excerpt that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily agree …
My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts on this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.” These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematical conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment …
In the November 13, 2013 post (“Not In Labor Force Statistic“) I featured editorial commentary from the Wall Street Journal, as well as an accompanying long-term chart, with regard to the number of people not working. Also, on February 9, 2015 I wrote another post titled “Unemployment And The ‘Not In Labor Force’ Statistic,” in …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective. Both charts are from the St. …
As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment. However, even if one chooses to look at the …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …