America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Advisor Perspectives’ … Read more Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – September 18, 2020 Update
On Wednesday, September 16, 2020 FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell gave his scheduled September 2020 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Jerome Powell’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript. These comments are excerpted from the … Read more Jerome Powell’s September 16, 2020 Press Conference – Notable Aspects
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of September … Read more Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts
As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of September 16, 2020, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the … Read more S&P500 EPS Estimates Concerning Years 2020, 2021, And 2022
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of September 10, 2020: Year 2020 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $113.67/share … Read more Standard & Poor’s S&P500 EPS Estimates 2020 & 2021 – September 10, 2020
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the September 10, 2020 update (reflecting data through September 4, 2020) is -.32. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read more Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. The level and trend of economic growth is especially notable at this time. As seen in various measures and near-term projections, the U.S. economy … Read more Charts Indicating Economic Weakness – September 2020
The September 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on September 10, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Overall Economy Is Recovering Faster Than Economists Expected.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. An … Read more The September 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey
While there has been an official declaration of U.S. recession on June 8, 2020 (as discussed in the “Recession Declared For The United States By The NBER BCDC” post), the following discussion is warranted for many reasons. Among the reasons is that two of the measures mentioned below are “forward-looking” in nature. There are a … Read more Recession Probability Models – September 2020
The August NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, September 8, 2020. The headline of the Economic Trends report is “Small Business Optimism Index Rebounds, Exceeding Historical Average.” The Index of Small Business Optimism increased by 1.4 points to 100.2. Here is an excerpt that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily agree with): … Read more NFIB Small Business Optimism – August 2020