America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds.Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM Money … Read more Money Supply Charts Through December 2019
Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood. While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, … Read more The U.S. Economic Situation – January 23, 2020 Update
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The January 2020 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of January 22, 2020: The CFNAI, with current reading of -.35: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity … Read more Updates Of Economic Indicators January 2020
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of January … Read more Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts
As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of January 21, 2020, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the … Read more S&P500 EPS Forecasts 2019 Through 2021 And Recent EPS
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of January 16, 2020: Year 2019 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $158.03/share … Read more Standard & Poor’s S&P500 EPS Estimates 2019, 2020, & 2021 – January 16, 2020
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from the Doug … Read more Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – January 17, 2020 Update
The January 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 16, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: U.S., China Agreement Will Boost Growth.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. Two excerpts: On … Read more The January 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey
I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 127 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable. These … Read more Disturbing Charts (Update 36)
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the January 9, 2020 update (reflecting data through January 3, 2020) is -1.419. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read more Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)