America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the November 29, 2019 update (reflecting data through November 22, 2019) is -1.325. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read more Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
For reference purposes, below are two charts of the VIX from year 2000 through Monday’s (December 2, 2019) close, which had a closing value of 14.91. Here is the VIX Weekly chart, depicted on a LOG scale, with the 13- and 34-week moving averages, seen in the cyan and red lines, respectively: (click on chart … Read more VIX Weekly And Monthly Charts Since The Year 2000 – December 3, 2019 Update
In the March 9, 2012 post (“Charts of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980“) I highlighted two charts for reference purposes. Below are those two charts, updated through the latest daily closing price. The first is a daily chart of the S&P500 (shown in green), as well as five prominent (AAPL, IBM, … Read more Charts Of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980 – December 3, 2019 Update
StockCharts.com maintains long-term historical charts of various major stock market indices, interest rates, currencies, commodities, and economic indicators. As a long-term reference, below are charts depicting various stock market indices for the dates shown. All charts are depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale. (click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com) The … Read more Four Ultra Long-Term Monthly U.S. Stock Index Charts
Various surveys, economic growth projections, and market risk indicators continue to indicate U.S. economic growth and financial system stability for the foreseeable future. However, there are various indications – many of which have been discussed on this site – that this very widely-held consensus is in many ways incorrect. There are many exceedingly problematical financial conditions that … Read more The Current U.S. Economic Strength And Resilience
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits. The negative impact of a substantial … Read more U.S. Dollar Decline – December 2, 2019 Update
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the November 21, 2019 update (reflecting data through November 15, 2019) is -1.319. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read more Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
In the last post (“3rd Quarter 2019 Corporate Profits“) I displayed, for reference purposes, a long-term chart depicting Corporate Profits After Tax. There are many ways to view this measure, both on an absolute as well as relative basis. One relative measure is viewing Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP. I feel that this … Read more Corporate Profits As A Percentage Of GDP
Today’s (November 27, 2019) GDP release (Q3 2019, second estimate) was accompanied by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Corporate Profits report (preliminary estimate) for the 3rd Quarter. Of course, there are many ways to adjust and depict overall Corporate Profits. For reference purposes, here is a chart from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) … Read more 3rd Quarter 2019 Corporate Profits
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through October 2019, updated on November 27, 2019. This value is $248,746 ($ Millions): (click on charts to … Read more Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through October 2019