Philadelphia Fed – 4th Quarter 2019 Survey Of Professional Forecasters

The Philadelphia Fed 4th Quarter 2019 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on November 15, 2019.  This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2019:  2.3% full-year 2020:  1.8% full-year 2021:  … Read morePhiladelphia Fed – 4th Quarter 2019 Survey Of Professional Forecasters

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – November 15, 2019 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from the Doug … Read moreLong-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – November 15, 2019 Update

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the November 7, 2019 update (reflecting data through November 1, 2019) is -1.324. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

Charts Indicating Economic Weakness – November 2019

U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators.  At this time, the readings of various indicators are especially notable.  This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. While many U.S. economic indicators – including GDP – are indicating economic growth, others … Read moreCharts Indicating Economic Weakness – November 2019

10-Year Treasury Yields – Two Long-Term Charts As Of November 12, 2019

I have written extensively about the importance of U.S. interest rate levels.  Rising interest rates have substantial ramifications for many aspects of the current-day economy.  My commentaries with regard to interest rates and the bond bubble are largely found under the “bond bubble” tag.   From an intervention perspective commentary is found under the “Intervention” … Read more10-Year Treasury Yields – Two Long-Term Charts As Of November 12, 2019

Building Financial Danger – November 8, 2019 Update

My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts on this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.”  These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematical conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment … Read moreBuilding Financial Danger – November 8, 2019 Update

The November 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The November 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on November 7, 2019.  The headline is “WSJ Survey: Economists Split on Causes of Hiring Slowdown.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. An excerpt: … Read moreThe November 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

Deflation Probabilities – November 7, 2019 Update

While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities … Read moreDeflation Probabilities – November 7, 2019 Update

Another Recession Probability Indicator – Updated Through Q2 2019

Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities.  The latest update was that of November 6, 2019, titled “Recession Probability Models – November 2019.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the … Read moreAnother Recession Probability Indicator – Updated Through Q2 2019

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the October 31, 2019 update (reflecting data through October 25, 2019) is -1.285. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)