The State of the Union Address – Notable Excerpts

I found President Trump’s State of the Union Address last night (February 4, 2020) to contain some noteworthy comments.  While I could comment extensively on many parts of the speech, for now I will indicate excerpts that I found most relevant with regard to the economic situation, and may comment upon them at a future point.  I … Read more The State of the Union Address – Notable Excerpts

VIX Weekly And Monthly Charts Since The Year 2000 – February 4, 2020 Update

For reference purposes, below are two charts of the VIX from year 2000 through Monday’s (February 3, 2020) close, which had a closing value of 17.97. Here is the VIX Weekly chart, depicted on a LOG scale, with the 13- and 34-week moving averages, seen in the cyan and red lines, respectively: (click on chart … Read more VIX Weekly And Monthly Charts Since The Year 2000 – February 4, 2020 Update

Charts Of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980 – February 4, 2020 Update

In the March 9, 2012 post (“Charts of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980“) I highlighted two charts for reference purposes. Below are those two charts, updated through the latest daily closing price. The first is a daily chart of the S&P500 (shown in green), as well as five prominent (AAPL, IBM, … Read more Charts Of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980 – February 4, 2020 Update

U.S. Stock Indexes – Ultra Long-Term Price Charts

StockCharts.com maintains long-term historical charts of various major stock market indices, interest rates, currencies, commodities, and economic indicators. As a long-term reference, below are charts depicting various stock market indices for the dates shown.  All charts are depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale. (click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com) The … Read more U.S. Stock Indexes – Ultra Long-Term Price Charts

U.S. Dollar Decline – February 3, 2020 Update

U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine.  As such, I have extensively written about it.  I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar.  Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits.  The negative impact of a substantial … Read more U.S. Dollar Decline – February 3, 2020 Update

Future Consequences Stemming From The U.S. Economic Situation

Various surveys, economic growth projections, and market risk indicators continue to indicate U.S. economic growth and financial system stability for the foreseeable future. However, there are various indications – many of which have been discussed on this site – that this very widely-held consensus is in many ways incorrect.  There are many exceedingly problematical financial conditions that … Read more Future Consequences Stemming From The U.S. Economic Situation

Another Recession Probability Indicator – Updated Through Q3 2019

Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities.  The latest update was that of January 8, 2020, titled “Recession Probability Models – January 2020.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the … Read more Another Recession Probability Indicator – Updated Through Q3 2019

Consumer Confidence Surveys – As Of January 31, 2020

The Doug Short site had a post of January 31, 2020 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment: January Final Remains Positive“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts.  They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – There are a few aspects of the above charts … Read more Consumer Confidence Surveys – As Of January 31, 2020

Employment Cost Index (ECI) – Fourth Quarter 2019

While the concept of Americans’ incomes can be defined in a number of ways, many prominent measures continue to show disconcerting trends. One prominent measure is the Employment Cost Index (ECI). Here is a description from the BLS document titled “The Employment Cost Index:  what is it?“: The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a quarterly … Read more Employment Cost Index (ECI) – Fourth Quarter 2019

Velocity Of Money – Charts Updated Through January 30, 2020

Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 4th quarter of 2019, and were last updated as of January 30, 2020. Velocity of MZM Money Stock, current value = 1.288: Data Source: FRED, … Read more Velocity Of Money – Charts Updated Through January 30, 2020