Another Recession Probability Indicator – Through Q3 2022

Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities.  The latest update was that of January 12, 2023, titled “Recession Probability Models – January 2023.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the …

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Real GDP Chart Since 1947 With Trendline – 4th Quarter 2022

For reference purposes, below is a chart from the Advisor Perspectives’ post of January 26, 2023 titled “Q4 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at 2.9%, Better Than Forecast” reflecting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted.  This chart incorporates the Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate) of January 26, 2023: _________ I post various indicators …

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Updates Of Economic Indicators January 2023

The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The January 2023 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of January 26, 2023: The CFNAI, with a current reading of -0.49: source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …

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Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through December 2022

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through December 2022, updated on January 26, 2023. This value is $286,885 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …

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Money Supply Charts Through December 2022

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following: Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those …

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The U.S. Economic Situation – January 23, 2023 Update

Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood.  While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the January 19, 2023 update (reflecting data through January 13, 2023) is -.3061: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …

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Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of January …

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