U.S. Dollar Decline – December 1, 2021 Update

U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine.  As such, I have extensively written about it, including commentary on the “A Substantial U.S. Dollar Decline And Consequences” page.  I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar.  Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, …

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The Highly Perilous Economic Situation

Various surveys, economic growth projections, and market risk indicators portrayed a short period (through mid-2020) of substantial U.S. economic decline, and now indicate a significant economic rebound followed by sustained economic growth and financial stability for the foreseeable future. However, there are various indications – many of which have been discussed on this site – …

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Consumer Confidence Surveys – As Of November 30, 2021

Advisor Perspectives had a post of November 30, 2021 (“Consumer Confidence Declined in November“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts.  They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – While I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be overemphasized, I find these readings …

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Corporate Profits As A Percentage Of GDP

In the last post (“3rd Quarter 2021 Corporate Profits“) I displayed, for reference purposes, a long-term chart depicting Corporate Profits After Tax. There are many ways to view this measure, both on an absolute as well as relative basis. One relative measure is viewing Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP.  I feel that this …

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3rd Quarter 2021 Corporate Profits

Today’s (November 24, 2021) GDP release (Q3 2021, Second Estimate) was accompanied by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Corporate Profits report (Preliminary Estimate) for the 3rd Quarter. Of course, there are many ways to adjust and depict overall Corporate Profits.  For reference purposes, here is a chart from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) …

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Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through October 2021

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through October 2021, updated on November 24, 2021. This value is $260,087 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …

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Money Supply Charts Through October 2021

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following: Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those …

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The U.S. Economic Situation – November 23, 2021 Update

Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood.  While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …

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Updates Of Economic Indicators November 2021

The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The November 2021 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of November 22, 2021: The CFNAI, with a current reading of .76: source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …

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