America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The September 2023 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of September 25, 2023: The CFNAI, with a current reading of -.16: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood. While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …
On Wednesday, September 20, 2023 FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell gave his scheduled September 2023 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Jerome Powell’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript. These comments are excerpted from the …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of September …
As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of September 15, 2023, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of September 13, 2023: Year 2023 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $220.20/share …
On September 12, 2023, the Business Roundtable released its most recent CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 3rd Quarter of 2023. Notable excerpts from this September 12, 2023 release, titled “Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index Continues to Dip Modestly…“: The overall Index dipped a modest four points from last quarter to 72, remaining …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the September 14, 2023 update (reflecting data through September 8, 2023) is -.7535: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
The August NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, September 12, 2023. The headline of the Economic Trends report is “Prices Rising Slightly on Main Street as Inflation Remains a Top Business Problem.” The Index of Small Business Optimism decreased by .6 points to 91.3. Here is an excerpt that I find particularly notable …