The U.S. Economic Situation – April 23, 2025 Update

Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood.  While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …

Read more

Money Supply Charts Through March 2025

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following: Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those …

Read more

Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of April …

Read more

S&P500 EPS Forecasts For 2024-2027 As Of April 11, 2025

As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of April 11, 2025, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts.  For reference, the …

Read more

Standard & Poor’s S&P500 EPS Estimates 2024 – 2026 – April 8, 2025

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of April 8, 2025: Year 2024 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $233.36/share -From …

Read more

Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) Q1 2025

On April 15, 2025, the Fannie Mae Q1 2025 Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) results were released.  This survey is done on a quarterly basis. Various Q1 2025 Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey information is available, including the chart seen below: As one can see from the above chart, the average expectation is that the residential real estate market, …

Read more

Disturbing Charts (Update 57)

The following is the latest update of 9 charts that depict various aspects of the U.S. economic and financial situation. I find these charts portray disturbing long-term trends. These trends have been in effect for years. These charts raise a lot of questions.  As well, they highlight the “atypical” nature of our economic situation from …

Read more

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the April 10, 2025 update (reflecting data through April 4, 2025) is .0944: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …

Read more