America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from the Doug … Read moreLong-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – August 16, 2019 Update
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the August 8, 2019 update (reflecting data through August 2, 2019) is -1.355. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. At this time, the readings of various indicators are especially notable. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. While many U.S. economic indicators – including GDP – are indicating economic growth, others … Read moreCharts Indicating Economic Weakness – August 2019
The Philadelphia Fed 3rd Quarter 2019 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on August 9, 2019. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2019: 2.3% full-year 2020: 1.9% full-year 2021: … Read morePhiladelphia Fed – 3rd Quarter 2019 Survey Of Professional Forecasters
The August 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on August 8, 2019. The headline is “Economists See Greater Chance of September Rate Cut, WSJ Survey Says.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. … Read moreThe August 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities … Read moreDeflation Probabilities – August 8, 2019 Update
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the August 1, 2019 update (reflecting data through July 26, 2019) is -1.367. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts on this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.” These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematical conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment … Read moreBuilding Financial Danger – August 7, 2019 Update
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is … Read moreRecession Probability Models – August 2019
For reference purposes, below are two charts of the VIX from year 2000 through Monday’s (August 5, 2019) close, which had a closing value of 24.59. Here is the VIX Weekly chart, depicted on a LOG scale, with the 13- and 34-week moving averages, seen in the cyan and red lines, respectively: (click on chart … Read moreVIX Weekly And Monthly Charts Since The Year 2000 – August 6, 2019 Update