Money Supply Charts Through August 2023

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following: Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those …

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Updates Of Economic Indicators September 2023

The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The September 2023 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of September 25, 2023: The CFNAI, with a current reading of -.16: source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …

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The U.S. Economic Situation – September 22, 2023 Update

Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood.  While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …

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Jerome Powell’s September 20, 2023 Press Conference – Notable Aspects

On Wednesday, September 20, 2023 FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell gave his scheduled September 2023 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Jerome Powell’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript.  These comments are excerpted from the …

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Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of September …

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S&P500 EPS Forecasts For 2023-2025 As Of September 15, 2023

As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of September 15, 2023, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts.  For reference, the …

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Standard & Poor’s S&P500 EPS Estimates 2023 – 2024 – September 13, 2023

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of September 13, 2023: Year 2023 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $220.20/share …

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CEO Confidence Surveys 3Q 2023 – Notable Excerpts

On September 12, 2023, the Business Roundtable released its most recent CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 3rd Quarter of 2023.   Notable excerpts from this September 12, 2023 release, titled “Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index Continues to Dip Modestly…“: The overall Index dipped a modest four points from last quarter to 72, remaining …

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the September 14, 2023 update (reflecting data through September 8, 2023) is -.7535: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …

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