America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The July 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on July 9, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Strong U.S. Recovery Depends on Effective Covid-19 Response.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. An … Read more The July 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey
On July 8, 2020 the latest CFO Survey (formerly called the “Duke/CFO Global Business Outlook”) was released. It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions. In this CFO Survey press release, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them: The CFO … Read more The CFO Survey Second Quarter 2020 – Notable Excerpts
On July 2, 2020, The Conference Board released the 2nd Quarter Measure Of CEO Confidence. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 44, up from 34 in the fourth quarter. [note: a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses] Notable excerpts from this July 2, 2020 Press Release include: CEOs … Read more CEO Confidence Surveys 2Q 2020 – Notable Excerpts
While there has been an official declaration of U.S. recession on June 8, 2020 (as discussed in the “Recession Declared For The United States By The NBER BCDC” post), the following discussion is warranted for many reasons. Among the reasons is that two of the measures mentioned below are “forward-looking” in nature. There are a … Read more Recession Probability Models – July 2020
My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts on this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.” These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematical conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment … Read more Building Financial Danger – July 8, 2020 Update
In the March 9, 2012 post (“Charts of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980“) I highlighted two charts for reference purposes. Below are those two charts, updated through the latest daily closing price. The first is a daily chart of the S&P500 (shown in green), as well as five prominent (AAPL, IBM, … Read more Charts Of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980 – July 6, 2020 Update
StockCharts.com maintains long-term historical charts of various major stock market indices, interest rates, currencies, commodities, and economic indicators. As a long-term reference, below are charts depicting various stock market indices for the dates shown. All charts are depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale. (click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com) The … Read more U.S. Main Stock Market Indices – Ultra Long-Term Charts
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic … Read more Average Hourly Earnings Trends
Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective. Both charts are from the St. … Read more U-3 And U-6 Unemployment Rate Long-Term Reference Charts As Of July 2, 2020
As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment. However, even if one chooses to look at the … Read more 3 Critical Unemployment Charts – July 2020