Recession Probability Models – December 2019

There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is … Read more Recession Probability Models – December 2019

Deflation Probabilities – December 5, 2019 Update

While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities … Read more Deflation Probabilities – December 5, 2019 Update

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the November 29, 2019 update (reflecting data through November 22, 2019) is -1.325. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read more Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the November 21, 2019 update (reflecting data through November 15, 2019) is -1.319. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read more Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through October 2019

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through October 2019, updated on November 27, 2019. This value is $248,746 ($ Millions): (click on charts to … Read more Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through October 2019

Updates Of Economic Indicators November 2019

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The November 2019 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of November 25, 2019: The CFNAI, with current reading of -.71: source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index … Read more Updates Of Economic Indicators November 2019

Money Supply Charts Through October 2019

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds.Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM Money … Read more Money Supply Charts Through October 2019

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the November 14, 2019 update (reflecting data through November 8, 2019) is -1.301. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read more Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the November 7, 2019 update (reflecting data through November 1, 2019) is -1.324. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read more Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

Deflation Probabilities – November 7, 2019 Update

While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities … Read more Deflation Probabilities – November 7, 2019 Update