America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through July 2022. While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability. A description of this measure, as seen in FRED: This …
Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities. The latest update was that of July 13, 2022, titled “Recession Probability Models – July 2022.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI3) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the July 28, 2022 update (reflecting data through July 22, 2022) is -2.2238: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI3], retrieved from FRED, …
Here are two charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 2nd quarter of 2022, and were last updated as of July 28, 2022. Velocity of M1 Money Stock, current value = 1.207: Data Source: FRED, Federal …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from the Advisor Perspectives’ post of July 28, 2022 titled “Q2 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at -.9%, Worse Than Forecast” reflecting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart incorporates the Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate) of July 28, 2022: _________ I post various indicators …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through June 2022, updated on July 27, 2022. This value is $272,596 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following: Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those …
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The July 2022 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of July 25, 2022: The CFNAI, with a current reading of -.19: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI3) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the July 14, 2022 update (reflecting data through July 8, 2022) is -1.3021: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI3], retrieved from FRED, …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …