America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
While there has been an official declaration of U.S. recession on June 8, 2020 (as discussed in the “Recession Declared For The United States By The NBER BCDC” post), the following discussion is warranted for many reasons. Among the reasons is that two of the measures mentioned below are “forward-looking” in nature. There are a … Read more Recession Probability Models – August 2020
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the August 6, 2020 update (reflecting data through July 31, 2020) is -.2931. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read more Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through July 2020. While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability. A description of this measure, as seen in FRED: This … Read more St. Louis Fed Price Pressures – Deflation Probability Through July 2020
Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 2nd quarter of 2020, and were last updated as of July 30, 2020. Velocity of MZM Money Stock, current value = .949: Data Source: FRED, … Read more Velocity Of Money – Charts Updated Through July 30, 2020
Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities. The latest update was that of July 8, 2020, titled “Recession Probability Models – July 2020.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the … Read more Another Recession Probability Indicator – Updated Through Q1 2020
For reference purposes, below is a chart from the Advisor Perspectives’ post of July 30, 2020 titled “Q2 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at -32.9%” reflecting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart incorporates the Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2020 (Advance Estimate) and Annual Update of July 30, 2020: _________ I post various indicators … Read more Real GDP Chart Since 1947 With Trendline – 2nd Quarter 2020
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the July 23, 2020 update (reflecting data through July 17, 2020) is -.1726. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read more Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through June 2020, updated on July 27, 2020. This value is $206,873 ($ Millions): (click on charts to … Read more Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through June 2020
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds.Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM Money … Read more Money Supply Charts Through June 2020
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The July 2020 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of July 21, 2020: The CFNAI, with current reading of 4.11: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity … Read more Updates Of Economic Indicators July 2020