Updates Of Economic Indicators May 2023

The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The May 2023 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of May 25, 2023: The CFNAI, with a current reading of .07: source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …

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Money Supply Charts Through April 2023

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following: Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those …

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Charts Indicating Economic Weakness – May 2023

Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators.  This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating facets of U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. The level and trend of economic growth is especially notable at this time. As seen in various estimates, the probability of recession has grown significantly. As seen in …

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Broad-Based Indicators Of Economic Activity

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. The Advisor Perspectives’ post of April 28, 2023, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index Business Conditions Index Update” …

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