America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities … Read moreDeflation Probabilities – June 10, 2019 Update
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the June 6, 2019 update (reflecting data through May 31, 2019) is -1.191. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the May 30, 2019 update (reflecting data through May 24, 2019) is -1.244. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is … Read moreRecession Probability Models – June 2019
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the May 30, 2019 update (reflecting data through May 24, 2019) is -1.244. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through April 2019, updated on May 24, 2019. This value is $248,395 ($ Millions): (click on charts to … Read moreDurable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through April 2019
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds.Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM Money … Read moreMoney Supply Charts Through April 2019
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the May 16, 2019 update (reflecting data through May 10, 2019) is -1.263. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The May 2019 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of May 20, 2019: The CFNAI, with current reading of -.45: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity … Read moreUpdates Of Economic Indicators May 2019
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the May 9, 2019 update (reflecting data through May 3, 2019) is -1.353. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)