America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the August 8, 2019 update (reflecting data through August 2, 2019) is -1.355. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities … Read moreDeflation Probabilities – August 8, 2019 Update
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the August 1, 2019 update (reflecting data through July 26, 2019) is -1.367. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is … Read moreRecession Probability Models – August 2019
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the July 25, 2019 update (reflecting data through July 19, 2019) is -1.334. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities. The latest update was that of July 8, 2019, titled “Recession Probability Models – July 2019.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the … Read moreAnother Recession Probability Indicator – Updated Through Q1 2019
Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 2nd quarter of 2019, and were last updated as of July 26, 2019. Velocity of MZM Money Stock, current value = 1.332: Data Source: FRED, … Read moreVelocity Of Money – Charts Updated Through July 26, 2019
For reference purposes, below is a chart from the Doug Short site post of July 26, 2019 titled “Q2 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at 2.1%, Better Than Expected” reflecting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart incorporates the Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2019 (Advance Estimate) (pdf) of July 26, 2019: _________ I post … Read moreReal GDP Chart Since 1947 With Trendline – 2nd Quarter 2019
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. The post on the Doug Short site of July 25, 2019, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index … Read moreBroad-Based Indicators Of Economic Activity
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through June 2019, updated on July 25, 2019. This value is $245,958 ($ Millions): (click on charts to … Read moreDurable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through June 2019