Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the April 1, 2021 update (reflecting data through March 26, 2021) is -.7036: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI2], retrieved from FRED, …

Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

U.S. Deflation Probability Chart Through March 2021

For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through March 2021. While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability. A description of this measure, as seen in FRED: This …

Read moreU.S. Deflation Probability Chart Through March 2021

Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through February 2021

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through February 2021, updated on March 24, 2021. This value is $254,004 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …

Read moreDurable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through February 2021

Money Supply Charts Through February 2021

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following: Beginning May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those …

Read moreMoney Supply Charts Through February 2021

Updates Of Economic Indicators March 2021

The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The March 2021 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of March 22, 2021: The CFNAI, with a current reading of -1.09: source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …

Read moreUpdates Of Economic Indicators March 2021

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the March 18, 2021 update (reflecting data through March 12, 2021) is -.6639: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI2], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve …

Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

Recession Probability Models – March 2021

Although there was an official declaration of U.S. recession on June 8, 2020 (as discussed in the “Recession Declared For The United States By The NBER BCDC” post), the following discussion is warranted for many reasons. Among the reasons is that two of the measures mentioned below are “forward-looking” in nature. There are a variety …

Read moreRecession Probability Models – March 2021

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the March 4, 2021 update (reflecting data through February 26, 2021) is -.5901: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI2], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve …

Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

Broad-Based Indicators Of Economic Activity

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. The Advisor Perspectives’ post of March 2, 2021, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index Business Conditions Index Update” …

Read moreBroad-Based Indicators Of Economic Activity

U.S. Deflation Probability Chart Through February 2021

For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through February 2021. While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability. A description of this measure, as seen in FRED: This …

Read moreU.S. Deflation Probability Chart Through February 2021