Another Recession Probability Indicator – Through Q1 2022

Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities.  The latest update was that of July 13, 2022, titled “Recession Probability Models – July 2022.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the …

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI3) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the July 28, 2022 update (reflecting data through July 22, 2022) is -2.2238: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI3], retrieved from FRED, …

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Real GDP Chart Since 1947 With Trendline – 2nd Quarter 2022

For reference purposes, below is a chart from the Advisor Perspectives’ post of July 28, 2022 titled “Q2 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at -.9%, Worse Than Forecast” reflecting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted.  This chart incorporates the Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate) of July 28, 2022: _________ I post various indicators …

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Money Supply Charts Through June 2022

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following: Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those …

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Updates Of Economic Indicators July 2022

The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The July 2022 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of July 25, 2022: The CFNAI, with a current reading of -.19: source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI3) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the July 14, 2022 update (reflecting data through July 8, 2022) is -1.3021: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI3], retrieved from FRED, …

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