Recession Probability Models – January 2021

Although there was an official declaration of U.S. recession on June 8, 2020 (as discussed in the “Recession Declared For The United States By The NBER BCDC” post), the following discussion is warranted for many reasons. Among the reasons is that two of the measures mentioned below are “forward-looking” in nature. There are a variety …

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the December 31, 2020 update (reflecting data through December 25, 2020) is -.5823. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and …

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U.S. Deflation Probability Chart Through December 2020

For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through December 2020. While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability. A description of this measure, as seen in FRED: This …

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the December 17, 2020 update (reflecting data through December 11, 2020) is -.6199. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and …

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Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through November 2020

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through November 2020, updated on December 23, 2020. This value is $244,161 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …

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Updates Of Economic Indicators December 2020

The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The December 2020 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of December 21, 2020: The CFNAI, with a current reading of .27: source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …

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Money Supply Charts Through November 2020

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds.Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM Money …

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the December 3, 2020 update (reflecting data through November 27, 2020) is -.6546. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and …

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Recession Probability Models – December 2020

Although there was an official declaration of U.S. recession on June 8, 2020 (as discussed in the “Recession Declared For The United States By The NBER BCDC” post), the following discussion is warranted for many reasons. Among the reasons is that two of the measures mentioned below are “forward-looking” in nature. There are a variety …

Read moreRecession Probability Models – December 2020

Broad-Based Indicators Of Economic Activity

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. The Advisor Perspectives’ post of December 2, 2020, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index Business Conditions Index – …

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