Category Archives: Business

CEO Confidence Surveys 1Q 2017 – Notable Excerpts

On April 6, 2017, The Conference Board released the 1st Quarter Measure Of CEO Confidence.   The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 68, up from 65 in the fourth quarter. [note:  a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses]

Notable excerpts from this April 6 Press Release include:

CEOs’ assessment of current economic conditions improved further, with 71 percent saying conditions were better compared to six months ago, up from 59 percent in the final quarter of 2016. Business leaders were also considerably more positive in their assessment of current conditions in their own industries. Now, 60 percent state conditions in their own industries have improved versus 46 percent in the fourth quarter.

CEOs’ optimism regarding the short-term outlook for the economy eased slightly, but remains rather strong. Currently, 65 percent expect economic conditions to improve over the next six months, compared to approximately 67 percent last quarter. The outlook for their own industries, however, was more favorable, with 67 percent of CEOs anticipating an improvement over the next six months, up from 58 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016.

The Business Roundtable last month also released its CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 1st Quarter of 2017.   Notable excerpts from the March 14, 2017 release, titled “Business Leaders Positive on Economy:  Expectations for Sales, Hiring & Investment Make Sharp Rise“:

The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index — a composite of CEO projections for sales and plans for capital spending and hiring over the next six months — made its largest increase since the fourth quarter of 2009.

The Index jumped 19.1 points, from 74.2 in the fourth quarter of last year to 93.3 in the current quarter. For the first time in seven quarters, the Index has risen above its historical average of 79.8. Its highest level over the past 10 years was 113, reached in Q1 2011.

CEO plans for hiring increased by 18 points from the previous quarter, while expectations for sales and capital expenditures increased by 21 and 18.4 points, respectively, over the previous quarter.

CEOs project 2.2 percent GDP growth in 2017, a 0.2 percent increase over their projection for 2017 made last December.

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2359.47 as this post is written

Corporate Profits As A Percentage Of GDP

In the last post (“4th Quarter 2016 Corporate Profits“) I displayed, for reference purposes, a long-term chart depicting Corporate Profits After Tax.

There are many ways to view this measure, both on an absolute as well as relative basis.

One relative measure is viewing Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP.  I feel that this metric is important for a variety of reasons.  As well, the measure is important to a variety of parties, including investors, businesses, and government policy makers.

As one can see from the long-term chart below (updated through the fourth quarter), (After Tax) Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP is at levels that can be seen as historically (very) high.  While there are many reasons as to why this is so, from a going-forward standpoint I think it is important to recognize both that such a notable condition exists, as well as contemplate and/or plan for such factors and conditions that would come about if (and in my opinion “when”) a more historically “normal” ratio of Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP occurs.  This topic can be very complex in nature, and depends upon myriad factors.  In my opinion it deserves far greater recognition.

(click on chart to enlarge image)

Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed March 30, 2017

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2369.94 as this post is written

4th Quarter 2016 Corporate Profits

Today’s (March 30, 2017) GDP release (Q4, 3rd Estimate)(pdf) was accompanied by the BLS Corporate Profits report for the 4th Quarter.

Of course, there are many ways to adjust and depict overall Corporate Profits.  For reference purposes, here is a chart from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) showing the Corporate Profits After Tax (without IVA and CCAdj) (last updated March 30, 2017, with a value of $1741.2 Billion):

CP_3-30-17

Here is the Corporate Profits After Tax measure shown on a Percentage Change from a Year Ago perspective:

CP percent change from year ago

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Corporate Profits After Tax [CP]; U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis; accessed March 30, 2017; https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CP

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2364.90 as this post is written

Deloitte “CFO Signals” Report Q1 2017 – Notable Aspects

Recently Deloitte released their “CFO Signals” “High-Level Summary” report for the 1st Quarter of 2017.

As seen in page 2 of the report, there were 132 survey respondents.  As stated:  “Each quarter (since 2Q10), CFO Signals has tracked the thinking and actions of CFOs representing many of North America’s largest and most influential companies. All respondents are CFOs from the US, Canada, and Mexico, and the vast majority are from companies with more than $1 billion in annual revenue. For a summary of this quarter’s response demographics, please see the sidebars and charts on this page. For other information about participation and methodology, please contact nacfosurvey@deloitte.com.”

Here are some of the excerpts that I found notable:

from page 3:

Perceptions

How do you regard the current/future status of the North American, Chinese, and European economies? Perceptions of the North American economy improved again, with 66% of CFOs rating current conditions as good (a four-year high) and 62% expecting better conditions in a year. Perceptions of Europe improved to 12% and 28%, while China rose to 20% and 19%. Page 6.

What is your perception of the capital markets? Eighty-one percent of CFOs say debt financing is attractive (up slightly from 79% last quarter), while attractiveness of equity financing held steady for public company CFOs (at about 40%) and rose for private company CFOs (from 29% to 38%). Eighty percent of CFOs now say US equities are overvalued—a new survey high. Page 7.

Sentiment

Compared to three months ago, how do you feel about the financial prospects for your company? Net optimism rose sharply from last quarter’s +23.4 to +50.0 (a survey high). About 60% of CFOs express rising optimism (up from 43%), and those citing declining optimism fell from 20% to 10%. Page 8.

Expectations

What is your company’s business focus for the next year? CFOs indicate a strong bias toward revenue growth over cost reduction (60% vs. 18%), and investing cash over returning it (59% vs. 15%). They shifted to a bias toward new offerings over existing ones (42% vs. 38%), and markedly increased their bias toward current geographies over new ones (67% vs. 13%). Page 9.

Compared to the past 12 months, how do you expect your key operating metrics to change over the next 12 months? Revenue growth expectations rose from 3.7% to 4.3% and are slightly above their two-year average. Earnings growth rose to 7.3%, up from 6.4% and also above the two-year average. Capital spending growth skyrocketed from 3.6% to 10.5% (the highest level in almost five years). Domestic hiring growth rose from 1.3% to 2.1%. Page 10.

from page 8:

Sentiment

Net optimism—already fairly strong since 2Q16—rose sharply to a new survey high amid overwhelmingly positive sentiment among US CFOs.

This quarter’s net optimism spiked to a survey high +50. Nearly 60% of CFOs expressed rising optimism (up from 43% last quarter), and about 10% cited declining optimism (down from 20%).

Net optimism for the US rose sharply from last quarter’s already-strong +34 to +58 this quarter. Canada rose from +7 to +40, while optimism in Mexico slid from -64 to -71.

Healthcare/Pharma and Energy/Resources CFOs were among the most optimistic last quarter, but are among the least optimistic this quarter (joined by Retail/Wholesale). Financial Services CFOs were among the least optimistic last quarter, but are among the most optimistic this quarter, joined by Technology and Telecom/Media/Entertainment (T/M/E).

from page 10:

Expectations

All key growth metrics rose this quarter, with capital spending skyrocketing; the outlook for Healthcare/Pharma declined markedly, but the outlook for Manufacturing and Energy/Resources improved.

Revenue growth expectations rose to 4.3% and are slightly above their two-year average. US expectations rebounded from last quarter’s dismal level, while Mexico fell to a two-year low. Energy/Resources is near its two-year high, and Healthcare/Pharma fell to its survey low.

Earnings growth expectations of 7.3% are up significantly from last quarter and above their two-year average. The US improved, but Mexico declined again. Manufacturing is highest, hitting its highest level in two years; Healthcare/Pharma fell to its lowest level in more than three years.

Capital investment growth expectations of 10.5% are up drastically from last quarter and sit at their highest level in nearly five years. All countries improved significantly from last quarter. Manufacturing and Energy/Resources rose sharply, with both near their survey highs.

Domestic hiring growth rose from last quarter’s weak showing of 1.3% to 2.1% and is at its second-highest level in nearly two years. Canada is low, but up from last quarter. Manufacturing sits at a two-year high, but is lowest of the industries (despite strength in other metrics).

Among the various charts and graphics in the report are graphics depicting trends in “Own Company Optimism” on page 8 and “Economic Optimism” found on page 6.

_____

I post various business and economic surveys because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2352.66. as this post is written

March 2017 Duke/CFO Global Business Outlook Survey – Notable Excerpts

On March 15, 2017 the March Duke/CFO Global Business Outlook was released.  It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions.

In this CFO survey, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them:

Results also show that CFOs are feeling the most confident about economic growth than they’ve been in more than a dozen years, and they strongly support several of the president’s initiatives.

These findings and detailed analysis of tax and economic reforms are from the Duke University/CFO Global Business Outlook. The survey has been conducted for 84 consecutive quarters and spans the globe, making it the world’s longest-running and most comprehensive research on senior finance executives. This quarter, nearly 900 CFOs responded to the survey, which ended March 10. Results are for the U.S. unless stated otherwise.

also:

The Optimism Index jumped this quarter to 69 (on a 100-point scale), the highest level in 14 years and much higher than the long-run average of 60.

“The jump in business optimism is leading to strong hiring and spending plans for 2017,” Graham said. “Our analysis of past forecasts shows that the Optimism Index is an accurate predictor of GDP growth and employment over the next year.”

Sixty-one percent of U.S. firms plan to increase their payrolls in 2017, with an average increase of about 3 percent (median 1 percent). Wage hikes are expected to average nearly 4 percent. Capital spending is expected to increase 6 percent on average (median 3 percent), a notable improvement from flat or negative spending plans for most of 2016.

“There’s a disconnect here,” said Duke finance professor Campbell R. Harvey, founding director of the CFO Survey. “Despite the optimism, the high rate of employment growth and wages, and the substantial possibility of both corporate and individual tax cuts, CFOs have very pessimistic growth forecasts, where only 16.8 percent believe we can hit 3 percent growth in 2017. That is surprising.”

The CFO survey contains two Optimism Index charts, with the bottom chart showing U.S. Optimism (with regard to the economy) at 69, as seen below:

Duke CFO Optimism March 2017

It should be interesting to see how well the CFOs predict business and economic conditions going forward.   I discussed past various aspects of this, and the importance of these predictions, in the July 9, 2010 post titled “The Business Environment”.

(past posts on CEO and CFO surveys can be found under the “CFO and CEO Confidence” tag)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2381.38 as this post is written

NFIB Small Business Optimism – February 2017

The February NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, March 14, 2017. The headline of the Small Business Economic Trends report is “Small Business Owners Continue To Have High Expectations For Washington.”

The Index of Small Business Optimism decreased .6 points in February to 105.3.

Here are some excerpts that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily agree with):

Business owners reporting higher sales improved four percentage points, rising to the first positive reading since early 2015. The percent of owners expecting higher real sales fell three points to a net 26 percent. This follows a 20-point rise in December and remains positive.

Capital spending among small business owners rose two points to 62 percent, the second highest reading since 2007. Owners reported spending on new equipment, vehicles, and improvement or expansion of facilities. The percent of owners planning capital outlays slipped one point to 26 percent. Duggan said after years of ball-and-chain regulation and poor economic growth, small businesses are ready to invest.

“Small businesses will begin to turn optimism into action when their two biggest priorities, healthcare and small business taxes, are addressed,” said Duggan. “To small business, these are both taxes that need reform. It is money out the door that strangles economic growth.”

also:

Credit Markets

Three percent of owners reported that all their borrowing needs were not satisfied, down 1 point. Thirty percent reported all credit needs met (down 1 point), and 52 percent explicitly said they did not want a loan. However, including those who did not answer the question, uninterested in borrowing, 67 percent of owners have no interest in borrowing. Record numbers of firms remain on the “credit sidelines”, seeing no good reason to borrow yet, in spite of the surge in optimism. As optimism is translated into spending plans, borrowing activity should pick up. Only 2 percent reported that financing was their top business problem compared to 22 percent citing taxes, 15 percent citing regulations and red tape, and 17 percent the availability of qualified labor. Weak sales garnered 12 percent of the vote.

Here is a chart of the NFIB Small Business Optimism chart, as seen in the March 14 Doug Short post titled “NFIB Small Business Survey:  Optimism Remains High in February“:

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

Further details regarding small business conditions can be seen in the full February 2017 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends (pdf) report.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2364.97 as this post is written

CEO Confidence Surveys 4Q 2016 – Notable Excerpts

On January 5, 2017, The Conference Board released the 4th Quarter Measure Of CEO Confidence.   The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 65, up from 50 in the third quarter. [note:  a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses]

Notable excerpts from this January 5 Press Release include:

CEOs’ assessment of current economic conditions was considerably more optimistic, with close to 60 percent saying conditions were better compared to six months ago, up from just 17 percent last quarter. Business leaders’ appraisal of current conditions in their own industries also improved significantly, with 46 percent stating conditions in their own industries have improved versus only 21 percent in the third quarter.

CEOs’ short-term outlook for the U.S. economy also improved markedly, with approximately 67 percent expecting better economic conditions over the next six months, up from 25 percent last quarter. The outlook for their own industries was also more favorable, with 58 percent of CEOs anticipating an improvement over the next six months, compared to about 23 percent in the third quarter.

The Business Roundtable last month also released its CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 4th Quarter of 2016.   Notable excerpts from the December 6, 2016 release, titled “Business Leaders:  Plans for Hiring Rise, Expectations for Sales Increase“ (pdf):

In their first GDP estimate for 2017, CEOs projected 2 percent growth next year. While the outlook for hiring is positive, the overall results suggest continued economic growth, albeit at a slow pace.

The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index — a composite of CEO projections for sales and plans for capital spending and hiring over the next six months — rose by 4.6 points, from 69.6 in the third quarter to 74.2 in the fourth quarter. The Index remains below its historical average of 79.6.

CEO expectations for sales over the next six months increased by 4.5 points, and expectations for hiring increased by a more robust 14.8 points over last quarter. However, CEO plans for capital expenditures fell by 5.4 points relative to last quarter.

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2268.06 as this post is written

Deloitte “CFO Signals” Report Q4 2016 – Notable Aspects

Recently Deloitte released their “CFO Signals” “High-Level Summary” report for the 4th Quarter of 2016.

As seen in page 2 of the report, there were 137  survey respondents.  As stated:  “Each quarter (since 2Q10), CFO Signals has tracked the thinking and actions of CFOs representing many of North America’s largest and most influential companies. All respondents are CFOs from the US, Canada, and Mexico, and the vast majority are from companies with more than $1 billion in annual revenue. For a summary of this quarter’s response demographics, please see the sidebars and charts on this page. For other information about participation and methodology, please contact nacfosurvey@deloitte.com.”

Here are some of the excerpts that I found notable:

from page 3:

Perceptions

How do you regard the current/future status of the North American, Chinese, and European economies? Perceptions of North America have improved, with 43% of CFOs rating its economic health as good and 58% expecting improvement next year. Perceptions of Europe remain pessimistic at just 8% and 13%, while China rebounded slightly to 24% and 17%. Page 6.

What is your perception of the capital markets? Seventy-nine percent of CFOs say debt financing is attractive (down from 89% last quarter), while attractiveness of equity financing held steady for public company CFOs (at about 40%) and rose for private company CFOs (from 24% to 29%). Seventy percent of CFOs say US equities are overvalued—just under the survey high. Page 7.

Sentiment

Overall, what risks worry you the most? CFOs again mention global economic growth and government regulation. New for this quarter is uncertainly regarding the new US administration’s future actions, with CFOs voicing concerns about the possibility of protectionism hurting global trade, and about tax reform possibly slowing near-term business spending. Page 8.

Compared to three months ago, how do you feel now about the financial prospects for your company? This quarter’s net optimism rose from last quarter’s +19.7 to +23.4 (slightly above the two-year average). Forty-three percent of CFOs express rising optimism (up from 35%), and the proportion citing declining optimism rose from 16% to 20%. Page 9.

Expectations

What is your company’s business focus for the next year? CFOs indicate a bias toward revenue growth over cost reduction (45% vs. 31%), and investing cash over returning it (56% vs. 17%). CFOs again indicate a bias toward existing offerings over new ones (41% vs. 32%), current geographies over new ones (57% vs. 22%), and organic growth over inorganic (58% vs. 18%). Page 10.

Compared to the past 12 months, how do you expect your key operating metrics to change over the next 12 months? Revenue growth expectations fell from 4.2% to 3.7% and are near their survey lows. Earnings growth rose to 6.4%, above last quarter’s 6.1% but again near 1Q16’s survey-low 6.0%. Capital spending growth fell to 3.6% (well off the two-year average). Domestic hiring growth fell to 1.3% from 2.3%. Page 11.

from page 9:

Sentiment

Net optimism bounced back strongly over the last two quarters; this quarter’s net optimism rose again due to positive sentiment within the US.

This quarter’s net optimism remains strong at +23.4. Forty-three percent of CFOs expressed rising optimism (up from 35% last quarter), and 20% cited declining optimism (up from 16%).

Net optimism for the US rose sharply from last quarter’s +16 to +34 this quarter. Canada fell from +50 to +7, and optimism in Mexico fell sharply from +50 to -64.

Healthcare/Pharma, Telecom/Media/ Entertainment, and Energy/Resources are the most optimistic; Retail/Wholesale and Financial Services are the least.

from page 11:

Expectations

Key growth metrics remain near their survey lows. CFOs from the US and from the Financial Services and Retail/Wholesale industries weighed on the averages.

Revenue growth expectations of 3.7% are down from last quarter and are again among the lowest in the survey’s history. US expectations are the second-lowest in survey history (back to 2Q10), and Financial Services sits at its new survey low.

Earnings growth expectations of 6.4% are up slightly from last quarter, but still near their survey low. Healthcare/Pharma and Energy/Resources are the highest; Financial Services is lowest.

Capital investment growth expectations of 3.6% are down sharply from last quarter and are the second-lowest in survey history. The US came in at its second-lowest level. Retail/Wholesale expects negative growth, with about half of CFOs expecting a decline.

Domestic hiring growth fell from last quarter’s very strong showing of 2.3% to 1.3% and is slightly below its two-year average. Technology and Healthcare/Pharma are lowest.

Among the various charts and graphics in the report are graphics depicting trends in “Own Company Optimism” on page 9 and “Economic Optimism” found on page 6.

_____

I post various business and economic surveys because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2269.75 as this post is written

NFIB Small Business Optimism – November 2016

The November NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, December 13, 2016. The headline of the Small Business Economic Trends report is “Special NFIB Optimism Index Finds Dramatically Different Attitudes Among Small Business Owners Before And After Election.”

The Index of Small Business Optimism increased 3.5 points in November to 98.4.

Here are some excerpts from that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily agree with):

Small business optimism remained flat leading up to Election Day and then rocketed higher as business owners expected much better conditions under new leadership in Washington, according to a special edition of the monthly NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism, released today.

also:

Labor Markets

Reported job creation remained weak in November with the seasonally adjusted average employment change per firm posting a gain of 0.02 workers per firm, positive, but barely. Fifty-eight percent reported hiring or trying to hire (up 3 points), but 52 percent reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill. Sixteen percent of owners cited the difficulty of finding qualified workers as their ‘Single Most Important Business Problem’.

Thirty-one percent of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, up 3 points and the highest reading in this recovery. The increase accurately predicted the decline in the unemployment rate from what many already call a “full employment” level. Sixteen percent reported using temporary workers, up 1 point. A seasonally adjusted net 15 percent plan to create new jobs, up 5 points from October and the strongest reading in the recovery.

also:

Credit Markets

Four percent of owners reported that all their borrowing needs were not satisfied, unchanged from October. Thirty percent reported all credit needs met (up 1 point), and 52 percent explicitly said they did not want a loan, down 1 point. Only 2 percent reported that financing was their top business problem. Thirty-one percent of all owners reported borrowing on a regular basis (up 3 points). The average rate paid on short maturity loans rose 40 basis points to 5.6 percent. Overall, loan demand remains historically weak, owners can’t find many good reasons to borrow and invest, even with abundantly cheap money.

Here is a chart of the NFIB Small Business Optimism chart, as seen in the December 13 Doug Short post titled “NFIB: Small Business Survey:  ‘Small Business Optimism Soars Post Election’“:

NFIB Small Business Optimism

Further details regarding small business conditions can be seen in the full November 2016 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends (pdf) report.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2256.96 as this post is written

December 2016 Duke/CFO Global Business Outlook Survey – Notable Excerpts

On December 7, 2016 the December Duke/CFO Global Business Outlook was released.  It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions.

In this CFO survey, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them:

For the last five quarters, the Duke University/CFO Global Business Outlook Optimism Index has hovered around the long-term average of 60 (on a 100-point scale). This quarter, post-election, the index jumped to 66, the highest level in nearly a decade. The proportion of CFOs becoming more optimistic outweighs those becoming more pessimistic by 4 to 1. Historically, a jump in the optimism index has predicted strong employment growth and rising GDP over the next year.

also:

U.S. firms plan to increase their payrolls by 2 percent in 2017 and expect a median increase in capital spending of 2 percent. While modest, spending is up from last quarter’s prediction of no growth.

The corporate sector faces increased financial risk due to a recent increase in borrowing. U.S. manufacturing firms increased their borrowing as a percentage of assets by one-third over the past five years; and energy firms levered up by two-thirds. More than 60 percent of the firms in these industries say that this high debt load will limit future corporate investment.

“Weak business spending has dampened economic growth during the past two years,” Graham said. “Finance chiefs tell us that any rebound in business spending will be muted because of debt loads at many firms that are already high.”

The CFO survey contains two Optimism Index charts, with the bottom chart showing U.S. Optimism (with regard to the economy) at 66, as seen below:

Duke CFO Survey optimism

It should be interesting to see how well the CFOs predict business and economic conditions going forward.   I discussed past various aspects of this, and the importance of these predictions, in the July 9, 2010 post titled “The Business Environment”.

(past posts on CEO and CFO surveys can be found under the “CFO and CEO Confidence” tag)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2247.93 as this post is written