Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The October Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of October 24, 2011:
An excerpt from the September 27 update titled “Index forecasts continued weak growth” :
The September update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, remaining below 2% through February. Persistent unemployment, elevated debt levels, high energy and food prices and low confidence have stalled consumer spending. Businesses are hesitant to expand amid uncertainty.
As of 10/14/11 the WLI was at 120.4 and the WLI, Gr. was at -10.1%.
The Indicator as of August 31 was at 41.5, as seen below:
Here is the latest chart, depicting 10-15-09 to 10-15-11:
As per the October 20 release, the LEI was at 116.4 and the CEI was at 103.3 in September.
An excerpt from the October 20 release:
Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “The LEI is pointing to soft economic conditions through the end of 2011. There is a risk that already low confidence – consumer, business and investor – could weaken further, putting downward pressure on demand and tipping the economy into recession. The probability of a downturn starting over the next few months remains at about 50 percent.”
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1229.05 as this post is written