Broad-Based Indicators Of Economic Activity

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. The Advisor Perspectives’ post of September 23, 2022, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index Business Conditions Index Update” …

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Markets During Periods Of Federal Reserve Intervention – September 23, 2022

In the August 9, 2011 post (“QE3 – Various Thoughts“) I posted a chart that depicted the movements of the S&P500, 10-Year Treasury Yield and the Fed Funds rate spanning the periods of various Federal Reserve interventions since 2007. For reference purposes, here is an updated chart (September 22, 2022) from the Advisor Perspectives’ site …

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Charts Indicating Economic Weakness – September 2022

Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators.  This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating facets of U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. The level and trend of economic growth is especially notable at this time. As seen in various estimates, the probability of recession has grown significantly and the second …

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Average Hourly Earnings Trends

I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …

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August 31, 2022 Gallup Poll Results On Economic Confidence – Notable Excerpts

On August 31, 2022 Gallup released the poll results titled “U.S. Economic Confidence Improving but Still Weak.” Notable excerpts include: Americans are significantly less negative in their evaluations of the U.S. economy than they were in July, with Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index improving from -51 to -39. The index recently hit a 13-year low of …

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Money Supply Charts Through July 2022

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following: Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those …

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Charts Indicating Economic Weakness – August 2022

Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators.  This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating facets of U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. The level and trend of economic growth is especially notable at this time. As seen in various estimates, the probability of recession has grown significantly and the second …

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