Disturbing Charts (Update 44)

The following is the latest update of 10 charts that depict various aspects of the U.S. economic and financial situation. I find these charts portray disturbing long-term trends. These trends have been in effect for years. These charts raise a lot of questions.  As well, they highlight the “atypical” nature of our economic situation from …

Read more

Charts Indicating Economic Weakness – January 2022

U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators.  This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating facets of U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. The level and trend of economic growth is especially notable at this time. As seen in various measures and near-term projections, the U.S. …

Read more

Average Hourly Earnings Trends

I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …

Read more

Broad-Based Indicators Of Economic Activity

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. The Advisor Perspectives’ post of December 30, 2021, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index Business Conditions Index Update” …

Read more

Money Supply Charts Through November 2021

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following: Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those …

Read more

Consumer Confidence Surveys – As Of December 28, 2021

Advisor Perspectives had a post of December 28, 2021 (“Consumer Confidence Improved in December“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts.  They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – While I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be overemphasized, I find these readings …

Read more

Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through November 2021

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through November 2021, updated on December 23, 2021. This value is $268,251 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …

Read more

Charts Indicating Economic Weakness – December 2021

U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators.  This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating facets of U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. The level and trend of economic growth is especially notable at this time. As seen in various measures and near-term projections, the U.S. …

Read more

Markets During Periods Of Federal Reserve Intervention – December 9, 2021 Update

In the August 9, 2011 post (“QE3 – Various Thoughts“) I posted a chart that depicted the movements of the S&P500, 10-Year Treasury Yield and the Fed Funds rate spanning the periods of various Federal Reserve interventions since 2007. For reference purposes, here is an updated chart (December 9, 2021) from the Advisor Perspectives’ site …

Read more