Category Archives: Economic Forecasts

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the August 17, 2017 update (reflecting data through August 11, 2017) is -1.507.

Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related issues, both from the Federal Reserve as well as from private sources.

Two other indices that I regularly monitor include the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) as well as the Chicago Fed Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index (ANFCI).

Here are summary descriptions of each, as seen in FRED:

The National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) measures risk, liquidity and leverage in money markets and debt and equity markets as well as in the traditional and “shadow” banking systems. Positive values of the NFCI indicate financial conditions that are tighter than average, while negative values indicate financial conditions that are looser than average.

The adjusted NFCI (ANFCI). This index isolates a component of financial conditions uncorrelated with economic conditions to provide an update on how financial conditions compare with current economic conditions.

For further information, please visit the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s web site:

http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/nfci/index.cfm

Below are the most recently updated charts of the NFCI and ANFCI, respectively.

The NFCI chart below was last updated on August 23, 2017 incorporating data from January 5,1973 through August 18, 2017, on a weekly basis.  The August 18, 2017 value is -.88:

NFCI 8-23-17

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed August 23, 2017:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NFCI

–

The ANFCI chart below was last updated on August 23, 2017 incorporating data from January 5,1973 through August 18, 2017, on a weekly basis.  The August 18 value is -.18:

ANFCI 8-23-17

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed August 23, 2017:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ANFCI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2448.70 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators August 2017

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The August 2017 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of August 21, 2017:

The CFNAI, with current reading of -.01:

CFNAI 8-1-17

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, August 21, 2017;

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI

The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of -.05:

CFNAI-MA3_8-21-17 -.05

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, August 21, 2017;

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3

–

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of August 18, 2017 (incorporating data through August 11, 2017) the WLI was at 144.5 and the WLI, Gr. was at 2.5%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of August 18, 2017:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

–

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through August 12, 2017:

ADS Index

–

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the August 17, 2017 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in July” (pdf) the LEI was at 128.3, the CEI was at 115.7, and the LAG was 124.8 in July.

An excerpt from the release:

“The U.S. LEI improved in July, suggesting the U.S. economy may experience further improvements in economic activity in the second half of the year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “The large negative contribution from housing permits, a reversal from June, was more than offset by gains in the financial indicators, new orders and sentiment.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of August 17, 2017:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2426.01 as this post is written

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the August 10, 2017 update (reflecting data through August 4, 2017) is -1.582.

Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related issues, both from the Federal Reserve as well as from private sources.

Two other indices that I regularly monitor include the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) as well as the Chicago Fed Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index (ANFCI).

Here are summary descriptions of each, as seen in FRED:

The National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) measures risk, liquidity and leverage in money markets and debt and equity markets as well as in the traditional and “shadow” banking systems. Positive values of the NFCI indicate financial conditions that are tighter than average, while negative values indicate financial conditions that are looser than average.

The adjusted NFCI (ANFCI). This index isolates a component of financial conditions uncorrelated with economic conditions to provide an update on how financial conditions compare with current economic conditions.

For further information, please visit the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s web site:

http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/nfci/index.cfm

Below are the most recently updated charts of the NFCI and ANFCI, respectively.

The NFCI chart below was last updated on August 16, 2017 incorporating data from January 5,1973 through August 11, 2017, on a weekly basis.  The August 11, 2017 value is -.89:

NFCI

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed August 16, 2017:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NFCI

–

The ANFCI chart below was last updated on August 16, 2017 incorporating data from January 5,1973 through August 11, 2017, on a weekly basis.  The August 11 value is -.19:

ANFCI

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed August 16, 2017:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ANFCI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2466.76 as this post is written

Philadelphia Fed – 3rd Quarter 2017 Survey Of Professional Forecasters

The Philadelphia Fed 3rd Quarter 2017 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on August 11, 2017.  This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures.

The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations:

Real GDP: (annual average level)

full-year 2017:  2.1%

full-year 2018:  2.4%

full-year 2019:  2.2%

full-year 2020:  2.0%

Unemployment Rate: (annual average level)

for 2017: 4.4%

for 2018: 4.2%

for 2019: 4.3%

for 2020: 4.3%

–

Regarding the risk of a negative quarter in real GDP in any of the next few quarters, mean estimates are 6.7%, 10.5%, 14.2%, 15.9% and 18.1% for each of the quarters from Q3 2017 through Q3 2018, respectively.

As well, there are also a variety of time frames shown (present quarter through the year 2026) with the median expected inflation (annualized) of each.  Inflation is measured in Headline and Core CPI and Headline and Core PCE.  Over all time frames expectations are shown to be in the 1.5% to 2.4% range.

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2442.52 as this post is written

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – August 11, 2017 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“):

For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are.

However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.

Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of August 11, 2017 titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index…”  These charts are on a weekly basis through the August 11, 2017 release, indicating data through August 4, 2017.

Here is the ECRI WLI (defined at ECRI’s glossary):

ECRI WLI

–

This next chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the Year-over-Year change in the 4-week moving average of the WLI:

–

This last chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the WLI, Gr.:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

_________

I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2445.01 as this post is written

Deflation Probabilities – August 10, 2017 Update

While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.”

As stated on the site:

Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) markets, described in a technical appendix, this weekly report provides two measures of the probability of consumer price index (CPI) deflation through 2022.

A chart shows the trends of the probabilities.  As one can see in the chart, the readings are volatile.

As for the current weekly reading, the August 10, 2017 update states the following:

The 2017–22 deflation probability was 5 percent on August 9, up from 3 percent on August 2. The 2016–21 deflation probability was 1 percent on August 9; it had been 0 percent from June 16 through August 2. These 2016–21 and 2017–22 deflation probabilities, measuring the likelihoods of net declines in the consumer price index over the five-year periods starting in early 2016 and early 2017, are estimated from prices of the five-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) issued in April 2016 and April 2017 and the 10-year TIPS issued in July 2011 and July 2012.

_________

I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2438.21 this post is written

The August 2017 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The August 2017 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on August 10, 2017.  The headline is “WSJ Survey:  Most Economists Expect Next Fed Rate Increase in December.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal this month see the Federal Reserve raising interest rates once more in 2017 and three times in 2018, a view that matches the Fed’s own projections.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 15.00%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 35%.  For reference, the average response in July’s survey was 14.78%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 62 academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.

–

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2017:  2.2%

full-year 2018:  2.4%

full-year 2019:  1.9%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2017: 4.2%

December 2018: 4.1%

December 2019: 4.2%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2017: 2.60%

December 2018: 3.03%

December 2019: 3.31%

CPI:

December 2017:  1.7%

December 2018:  2.2%

December 2019:  2.3%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2017: $49.76

for 12/31/2018: $51.81

for 12/31/2019: $53.45

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2438.21 as post is written

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the August 3, 2017 update (reflecting data through July 28, 2017) is -1.607.

Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related issues, both from the Federal Reserve as well as from private sources.

Two other indices that I regularly monitor include the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) as well as the Chicago Fed Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index (ANFCI).

Here are summary descriptions of each, as seen in FRED:

The National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) measures risk, liquidity and leverage in money markets and debt and equity markets as well as in the traditional and “shadow” banking systems. Positive values of the NFCI indicate financial conditions that are tighter than average, while negative values indicate financial conditions that are looser than average.

The adjusted NFCI (ANFCI). This index isolates a component of financial conditions uncorrelated with economic conditions to provide an update on how financial conditions compare with current economic conditions.

For further information, please visit the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s web site:

http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/nfci/index.cfm

Below are the most recently updated charts of the NFCI and ANFCI, respectively.

The NFCI chart below was last updated on August 9, 2017 incorporating data from January 5,1973 through August 4, 2017, on a weekly basis.  The August 4, 2017 value is -.90:

NFCI long-term chart

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed August 9, 2017:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NFCI

–

The ANFCI chart below was last updated on August 9, 2017 incorporating data from January 5,1973 through August 4, 2017, on a weekly basis.  The August 4 value is -.20:

ANFCI long-term chart

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed August 9, 2017:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ANFCI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2470.25 as this post is written

Recession Probability Models – August 2017

There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession.

While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored.

Please note that each of these models is updated regularly, and the results of these – as well as other recession models – can fluctuate significantly.

The first is the “Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator” from the New York Federal Reserve.  I wrote a post concerning this measure on March 1, 2010, titled “The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator.”

Currently (last updated August 2, 2017 using data through July) this “Yield Curve” model shows a 9.4544% probability of a recession in the United States twelve months ahead.  For comparison purposes, it showed a 9.869% probability through June, and a chart going back to 1960 is seen at the “Probability Of U.S. Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread.” (pdf)

The second model is from Marcelle Chauvet and Jeremy Piger.  This model is described on the St. Louis Federal Reserve site (FRED) as follows:

Smoothed recession probabilities for the United States are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. This model was originally developed in Chauvet, M., “An Economic Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching,” International Economic Review, 1998, 39, 969-996. (http://faculty.ucr.edu/~chauvet/ier.pdf)

Additional details and explanations can be seen on the “U.S. Recession Probabilities” page.

This model, last updated on August 7, 2017, currently shows a .44% probability using data through May.

Here is the FRED chart (last updated August 7, 2017):

RECPROUSM156N

Data Source:  Piger, Jeremy Max and Chauvet, Marcelle, Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities [RECPROUSM156N], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, accessed August 7, 2017:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/RECPROUSM156N

–

The two models featured above can be compared against measures seen in recent blog posts.  For instance, as seen in the July 13 post titled “The July 2017 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey“ economists surveyed averaged a 14.78% probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2479.52 as this post is written

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the July 27, 2017 update (reflecting data through July 21, 2017) is -1.595.

Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related issues, both from the Federal Reserve as well as from private sources.

Two other indices that I regularly monitor include the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) as well as the Chicago Fed Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index (ANFCI).

Here are summary descriptions of each, as seen in FRED:

The National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) measures risk, liquidity and leverage in money markets and debt and equity markets as well as in the traditional and “shadow” banking systems. Positive values of the NFCI indicate financial conditions that are tighter than average, while negative values indicate financial conditions that are looser than average.

The adjusted NFCI (ANFCI). This index isolates a component of financial conditions uncorrelated with economic conditions to provide an update on how financial conditions compare with current economic conditions.

For further information, please visit the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s web site:

http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/nfci/index.cfm

Below are the most recently updated charts of the NFCI and ANFCI, respectively.

The NFCI chart below was last updated on August 2, 2017 incorporating data from January 5,1973 through July 28, 2017, on a weekly basis.  The July 28, 2017 value is -.94:

NFCI_8-2-17 -.94

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed August 2, 2017:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NFCI

–

The ANFCI chart below was last updated on August 2, 2017 incorporating data from January 5,1973 through July 28, 2017, on a weekly basis.  The July 28 value is -.24:

ANFCI_8-2-17 -.24

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed August 2, 2017:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ANFCI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2470.33 as this post is written