America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The May 2020 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of May 26, 2020: The CFNAI, with current reading of -16.74: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity … Read more Updates Of Economic Indicators May 2020
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the May 14, 2020 update (reflecting data through May 8, 2020) is .6123. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read more Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
The Philadelphia Fed 2nd Quarter 2020 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on May 15, 2020. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2020: -5.6% full-year 2021: 3.1% full-year 2022: … Read more Philadelphia Fed – 2nd Quarter 2020 Survey Of Professional Forecasters
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Advisor Perspectives’ … Read more Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – May 15, 2020 Update
The May 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on May 13, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Coronavirus to Cause 17% Unemployment in June.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. An excerpt: … Read more The May 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the May 7, 2020 update (reflecting data through May 1, 2020) is .865. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read more Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is … Read more Recession Probability Models – May 2020
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the April 30, 2020 update (reflecting data through April 24, 2020) is 1.955. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read more Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities. The latest update was that of February 1, 2020, titled “Recession Probability Models – April 2020.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the … Read more Another Recession Probability Indicator – Updated Through Q4 2019
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the April 23, 2020 update (reflecting data through April 17, 2020) is 1.2984. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read more Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)