CEO Confidence Surveys 1Q 2024 – Notable Excerpts

On March 6, 2024, the Business Roundtable released its most recent CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 1st Quarter of 2024.   Notable excerpts from this release, titled “Business Roundtable Q1 CEO Economic Outlook Index Signals a Resilient, Accelerating Economy“: The overall Index increased by 11 points from last quarter to 85, slightly above its …

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the March 7, 2024 update (reflecting data through March 1, 2024) is -.7760: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …

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Updates Of Economic Indicators February 2024

The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The February 2024 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of February 22, 2024: The CFNAI, with a current reading of -.30: source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the February 22, 2024 update (reflecting data through February 16, 2024) is -.8423: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …

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Philadelphia Fed – 1st Quarter 2024 Survey Of Professional Forecasters

The Philadelphia Fed 1st Quarter 2024 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on February 9, 2024.  This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2024:  2.4% full-year 2025:  1.8% full-year 2026:  …

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the February 8, 2024 update (reflecting data through February 2, 2024) is -.7332: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …

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Another Recession Probability Indicator – Through Q3 2023

Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities.  The latest update was that of January 5, 2024, titled “Recession Probability Models – January 2024.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the …

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the January 25, 2024 update (reflecting data through January 19, 2024) is -.8037: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …

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