Philadelphia Fed – 1st Quarter 2020 Survey Of Professional Forecasters

The Philadelphia Fed 1st Quarter 2020 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on February 14, 2020.  This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2020:  2.0% full-year 2021:  2.0% full-year 2022:  … Read more Philadelphia Fed – 1st Quarter 2020 Survey Of Professional Forecasters

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – February 14, 2020 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from the Doug … Read more Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – February 14, 2020 Update

The February 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The February 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on February 13, 2020.  The headline is “WSJ Survey: Coronavirus Likely to Hit First-Quarter U.S. Growth.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. An excerpt: … Read more The February 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the February 6, 2020 update (reflecting data through January 31, 2020) is -1.463. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read more Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

Recession Probability Models – February 2020

There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is … Read more Recession Probability Models – February 2020

Deflation Probabilities – February 6, 2020 Update

While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities … Read more Deflation Probabilities – February 6, 2020 Update

Another Recession Probability Indicator – Updated Through Q3 2019

Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities.  The latest update was that of January 8, 2020, titled “Recession Probability Models – January 2020.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the … Read more Another Recession Probability Indicator – Updated Through Q3 2019

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the January 23, 2020 update (reflecting data through January 17, 2020) is -1.567. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read more Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

Updates Of Economic Indicators January 2020

The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The January 2020 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of January 22, 2020: The CFNAI, with current reading of -.35: source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity … Read more Updates Of Economic Indicators January 2020

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – January 17, 2020 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from the Doug … Read more Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – January 17, 2020 Update