America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 10, 2019 update (reflecting data through October 4, 2019) is -1.166. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
The October 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 10, 2019. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Majority of Economists Say Manufacturing Sector in Recession.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. An … Read moreThe October 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is … Read moreRecession Probability Models – October 2019
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 3, 2019 update (reflecting data through September 27, 2019) is -1.271. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities … Read moreDeflation Probabilities – October 3, 2019 Update
On October 2, 2019, The Conference Board released the 3rd Quarter Measure Of CEO Confidence. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 34, down from 43 in the second quarter. [note: a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses] Notable excerpts from this October 2, 2019 Press Release include: CEOs … Read moreCEO Confidence Surveys 3Q 2019 – Notable Excerpts
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the September 26, 2019 update (reflecting data through September 20, 2019) is -1.284. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the September 19, 2019 update (reflecting data through September 13, 2019) is -1.312. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The September 2019 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of September 23, 2019: The CFNAI, with current reading of .10: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index … Read moreUpdates Of Economic Indicators September 2019
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from the Doug … Read moreLong-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – September 20, 2019 Update