Economic Forecasts

Philadelphia Fed – 3rd Quarter 2020 Survey Of Professional Forecasters

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The Philadelphia Fed 3rd Quarter 2020 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on August 14, 2020.  This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2020:  -5.2% full-year 2021:  3.2% full-year 2022:  … Read more Philadelphia Fed – 3rd Quarter 2020 Survey Of Professional Forecasters

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – August 14, 2020 Update

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As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Advisor Perspectives’ … Read more Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – August 14, 2020 Update

The August 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

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The August 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on August 13, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Benefits of Extra Unemployment Aid Outweigh Work Disincentive.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. An … Read more The August 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

Recession Probability Models – August 2020

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While there has been an official declaration of U.S. recession on June 8, 2020 (as discussed in the “Recession Declared For The United States By The NBER BCDC” post), the following discussion is warranted for many reasons. Among the reasons is that two of the measures mentioned below are “forward-looking” in nature. There are a … Read more Recession Probability Models – August 2020

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

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The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the August 6, 2020 update (reflecting data through July 31, 2020) is -.2931. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read more Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

St. Louis Fed Price Pressures – Deflation Probability Through July 2020

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For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through July 2020. While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability. A description of this measure, as seen in FRED: This … Read more St. Louis Fed Price Pressures – Deflation Probability Through July 2020

Another Recession Probability Indicator – Updated Through Q1 2020

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Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities.  The latest update was that of July 8, 2020, titled “Recession Probability Models – July 2020.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the … Read more Another Recession Probability Indicator – Updated Through Q1 2020

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

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The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the July 23, 2020 update (reflecting data through July 17, 2020) is -.1726. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read more Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

Updates Of Economic Indicators July 2020

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The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The July 2020 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of July 21, 2020: The CFNAI, with current reading of 4.11: source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity … Read more Updates Of Economic Indicators July 2020

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – July 17, 2020 Update

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As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Advisor Perspectives’ … Read more Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – July 17, 2020 Update