Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the January 21, 2021 update (reflecting data through January 21, 2021) is -.7384: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI2], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve …

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Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – January 15, 2021 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Advisor Perspectives’ …

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The January 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The January 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 14, 2021. The headline is “WSJ Survey: U.S. Economic Growth Will Exceed 4% in 2021.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. An …

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Recession Probability Models – January 2021

Although there was an official declaration of U.S. recession on June 8, 2020 (as discussed in the “Recession Declared For The United States By The NBER BCDC” post), the following discussion is warranted for many reasons. Among the reasons is that two of the measures mentioned below are “forward-looking” in nature. There are a variety …

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the December 31, 2020 update (reflecting data through December 25, 2020) is -.5823. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and …

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U.S. Deflation Probability Chart Through December 2020

For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through December 2020. While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability. A description of this measure, as seen in FRED: This …

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the December 17, 2020 update (reflecting data through December 11, 2020) is -.6199. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and …

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The CFO Survey Fourth Quarter 2020 – Notable Excerpts

On December 22, 2020 the latest CFO Survey (formerly called the “Duke/CFO Global Business Outlook”) was released.  It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions. In this CFO Survey press release, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them: The survey was …

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Updates Of Economic Indicators December 2020

The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The December 2020 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of December 21, 2020: The CFNAI, with a current reading of .27: source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …

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Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – December 18, 2020 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Advisor Perspectives’ …

Read moreLong-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – December 18, 2020 Update