America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the November 30, 2023 update (reflecting data through November 24, 2023) is -.6839: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The November 2023 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of November 21, 2023: The CFNAI, with a current reading of -.49: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the November 16, 2023 update (reflecting data through November 10, 2023) is -.6715: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
The Philadelphia Fed 4th Quarter 2023 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on November 13, 2023. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2023: 2.4% full-year 2024: 1.7% full-year 2025: …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the November 2, 2023 update (reflecting data through October 27, 2023) is -.3351: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities. The latest update was that of October 5, 2023, titled “Recession Probability Models – October 2023.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the …
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The October 2023 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of October 23, 2023: The CFNAI, with a current reading of .02: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
The October 2023 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 15, 2023. The headline is “A Recession Is No Longer The Consensus.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section. An excerpt: Economists are turning …