Updates Of Economic Indicators March 2020

The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The March 2020 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of March 23, 2020: The CFNAI, with current reading of .16: source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity … Read more Updates Of Economic Indicators March 2020

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the March 12, 2020 update (reflecting data through March 6, 2020) is -.936. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read more Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – March 13, 2020 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from the Doug … Read more Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – March 13, 2020 Update

The March 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The March 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on March 12, 2020.  The headline is “WSJ Survey: Coronavirus to Trigger U.S. Economic Contraction in Second Quarter.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. … Read more The March 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the March 5, 2020 update (reflecting data through February 28, 2020) is -1.208. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read more Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

Recession Probability Models – March 2020

There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is … Read more Recession Probability Models – March 2020

Deflation Probabilities – March 5, 2020 Update

While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities … Read more Deflation Probabilities – March 5, 2020 Update

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the February 20, 2020 update (reflecting data through February 14, 2020) is -1.604. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read more Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

Updates Of Economic Indicators February 2020

The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The February 2020 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of February 24, 2020: The CFNAI, with current reading of -.25: source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity … Read more Updates Of Economic Indicators February 2020

Philadelphia Fed – 1st Quarter 2020 Survey Of Professional Forecasters

The Philadelphia Fed 1st Quarter 2020 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on February 14, 2020.  This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2020:  2.0% full-year 2021:  2.0% full-year 2022:  … Read more Philadelphia Fed – 1st Quarter 2020 Survey Of Professional Forecasters