Updates Of Economic Indicators November 2021

The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The November 2021 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of November 22, 2021: The CFNAI, with a current reading of .76: source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …

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Philadelphia Fed – 4th Quarter 2021 Survey Of Professional Forecasters

The Philadelphia Fed 4th Quarter 2021 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on November 15, 2021.  This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2021:  5.5% full-year 2022:  3.9% full-year 2023:  …

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the November 11, 2021 update (reflecting data through November 5, 2021) is -.8724: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI2], retrieved from FRED, …

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Another Recession Probability Indicator – Updated Through Q2 2021

Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities.  The latest update was that of October 7, 2021, titled “Recession Probability Models – October 2021.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the …

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 28, 2021 update (reflecting data through October 22, 2021) is -1.1357: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI2], retrieved from FRED, …

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Updates Of Economic Indicators October 2021

The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The October 2021 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of October 25, 2021: The CFNAI, with a current reading of -.13: source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …

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