Economic Forecasts

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from the Doug … Read more Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – February 14, 2020 Update

There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is … Read more Recession Probability Models – February 2020

While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities … Read more Deflation Probabilities – February 6, 2020 Update

Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities.  The latest update was that of January 8, 2020, titled “Recession Probability Models – January 2020.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the … Read more Another Recession Probability Indicator – Updated Through Q3 2019