America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the November 29, 2019 update (reflecting data through November 22, 2019) is -1.325. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read more Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the November 21, 2019 update (reflecting data through November 15, 2019) is -1.319. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read more Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The November 2019 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of November 25, 2019: The CFNAI, with current reading of -.71: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index … Read more Updates Of Economic Indicators November 2019
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the November 14, 2019 update (reflecting data through November 8, 2019) is -1.301. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read more Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
The Philadelphia Fed 4th Quarter 2019 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on November 15, 2019. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2019: 2.3% full-year 2020: 1.8% full-year 2021: … Read more Philadelphia Fed – 4th Quarter 2019 Survey Of Professional Forecasters
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from the Doug … Read more Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – November 15, 2019 Update
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the November 7, 2019 update (reflecting data through November 1, 2019) is -1.324. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read more Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
The November 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on November 7, 2019. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Economists Split on Causes of Hiring Slowdown.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. An excerpt: … Read more The November 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities … Read more Deflation Probabilities – November 7, 2019 Update
Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities. The latest update was that of November 6, 2019, titled “Recession Probability Models – November 2019.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the … Read more Another Recession Probability Indicator – Updated Through Q2 2019