America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the February 2, 2023 update (reflecting data through January 27, 2023) is -.4892: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through January 2023. While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability. A description of this measure, as seen in FRED: This …
Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities. The latest update was that of January 12, 2023, titled “Recession Probability Models – January 2023.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the …
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The January 2023 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of January 26, 2023: The CFNAI, with a current reading of -0.49: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the January 19, 2023 update (reflecting data through January 13, 2023) is -.3061: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
The January 2023 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 15, 2023. The headline is “Despite Easing Price Pressures, Economists in WSJ Survey Still See Recession This Year.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the January 5, 2023 update (reflecting data through December 30, 2022) is -.0134: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
On December 21, 2022 The CFO Survey (formerly called the “Duke/CFO Global Business Outlook”) was released. It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions. In this CFO Survey press release, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them: CFO optimism about …
On December 5, 2022, the Business Roundtable released its most recent CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 4th Quarter of 2022. Notable excerpts from this December 5, 2022 release, titled “Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index Declines Further in Q4“: Business Roundtable today released its Q4 2022 CEO Economic Outlook Survey, a composite index …