On April 5, 2018, The Conference Board released the 1st Quarter Measure Of CEO Confidence.   The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 65, up from 63 in the fourth quarter. [note:  a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses]

Notable excerpts from this April 5 Press Release include:

CEOs’ assessment of current economic conditions was slightly more positive, with 75 percent saying conditions are better compared to six months ago, up from 71 percent in the fourth quarter of last year. CEOs were also moderately more optimistic in their appraisal of current conditions in their own industries. Now, 51 percent say conditions in their own industries have improved, up from 49 percent last quarter.

Looking ahead, CEOs’ expectations regarding the short-term outlook was significantly better. Now, 63 percent expect economic conditions to improve over the next six months, compared to just 47 percent last quarter. CEOs, however, were only slightly more upbeat about short-term prospects in their own industries over the next six months, with 43 percent anticipating conditions will improve, versus 41 percent last quarter.

The Business Roundtable last month also released its CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 1st Quarter of 2018.   Notable excerpts from the March 13, 2018 release, titled “Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index Reaches Highest Level in Survey’s 15-Year History“:

The Business Roundtable Q1 2018 CEO Economic Outlook Index – a composite of CEO projections for sales and plans for capital spending and hiring over the next six months – increased to 118.6 in the first quarter of 2018, the highest level since the survey began in the fourth quarter of 2002. The survey was conducted between February 7 and February 26, 2018. Results reflect renewed CEO optimism and confidence following passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, but do not capture effects of President Trump’s March 8, 2018, announcement of steel and aluminum tariffs.

The Q1 2018 Index exceeded its previous high point of 113 in 2011. The Index has significantly surpassed its historical average level of 81.2.

All three components of the Index reached record highs, signaling a positive direction for the U.S economy.

• CEO plans for hiring rose to 98.5, up 22.8 from the previous quarter.
• Plans for capital investment rose to 115.4, up 22.7 from Q4 2017.
• Expectations for sales reached 141.9, an increase of 19.9 from the last quarter.

In their second estimate for GDP in 2018, CEOs project 2.8 percent GDP growth for the year, compared to the previous quarter’s estimate of 2.5 percent for the year.

Additional details can be seen in the sources mentioned above.

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2662.84 as this post is written

On March 7, 2018 the March 2018 Duke/CFO Global Business Outlook was released.  It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions.

In this CFO survey, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them:

Forty-four percent of U.S. companies plan to increase wages more than they would have without tax reform. Thirty-eight percent plan to increase employment and 36 percent will increase domestic investment. Thirty-one percent will increase cash holdings. Among companies with defined benefit pensions, 28 percent will increase pension contributions.

also:

Due to tax reform, the effective (or average) tax rate for U.S. companies is expected to fall by about 5 percent, from 24 percent to 18.8 percent.

also:

The Optimism Index in the U.S. increased to 71 on a 100-point scale this quarter, an all-time high.

“The extremely high level of business optimism is tied to the recently passed corporate tax reform,” Graham said. “Our analysis of past results shows the CFO Optimism Index is an accurate predictor of future economic growth and hiring, therefore 2018 looks to be a very promising year.”

Optimism is up around the world, anticipating strong global economic conditions.

also:

The proportion of firms indicating they are having difficulty hiring and retaining qualified employees remains at a two-decade high, with 45 percent of CFOs calling it a top concern, up from 43 percent last quarter. The median U.S. firm says it plans to increase employment by a median 3 percent in 2018.

“The tight labor market continues to put upward pressure on wages,” said Chris Schmidt, senior editor at CFO Research. “Wage inflation is now listed near the top half dozen concerns of U.S. CFOs.”

The CFO survey contains two Optimism Index charts, with the bottom chart showing U.S. Optimism (with regard to the economy) at 71, as seen below:

—

It should be interesting to see how well the CFOs predict business and economic conditions going forward.   I discussed past various aspects of this, and the importance of these predictions, in the July 9, 2010 post titled “The Business Environment”.

(past posts on CEO and CFO surveys can be found under the “CFO and CEO Confidence” tag)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2735.50 as this post is written

On January 4, 2018, The Conference Board released the 4th Quarter Measure Of CEO Confidence.   The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 63, up from 59 in the third quarter. [note:  a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses]

Notable excerpts from this January 4 Press Release include:

CEOs’ assessment of current economic conditions improved considerably. Currently, 71 percent say conditions are better compared to six months ago, up from 56 percent in the third quarter. However, CEOs are moderately less optimistic in their appraisal of current conditions in their own industries. Now, 49 percent say conditions in their own industries have improved, down from 53 percent last quarter.

Looking ahead, CEOs’ expectations regarding the short-term outlook was significantly better. Now, 47 percent expect economic conditions to improve over the next six months, compared to just 39 percent last quarter. CEOs were also more upbeat about short-term prospects in their own industries over the next six months, with 41 percent anticipating conditions will improve, versus 36 percent in the third quarter of 2017.

The Business Roundtable last month also released its CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 4th Quarter of 2017.   Notable excerpts from the December 5, 2017 release, titled “Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index Reaches Highest Level in Nearly Six Years“:

The Business Roundtable Q4 CEO Economic Outlook Index — a composite of CEO projections for sales and plans for capital spending and hiring over the next six months — increased to 96.8 for the fourth quarter of 2017, up from 94.5 in the third quarter.

The Index reached its highest level since the first quarter of 2012 (96.9). The Index has significantly exceeded its historical average of 80.3 for four quarters in a row and remains well above 50, suggesting that CEOs continue to expect the U.S. economy to expand at a healthy pace.

CEO plans for capital investment rose to their highest level since the second quarter of 2011. Expectations for sales picked up by 5.1 points. Hiring plans dipped 4.5 points from Q3, but remain near their highest level in four years.

In their first GDP estimate for 2018, CEOs project 2.5 percent GDP growth for the year.

Additional details can be seen in the sources mentioned above.

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2747.71 as this post is written

On October 5, 2017, The Conference Board released the 3rd Quarter Measure Of CEO Confidence.   The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 59, down from 61 in the second quarter. [note:  a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses]

Notable excerpts from this October 5 Press Release include:

CEOs’ assessment of current economic conditions was mixed. Currently, 56 percent say conditions are better compared to six months ago, down from 60 percent in the second quarter. Business leaders, however, are more positive in their appraisal of current conditions in their own industries. Now, 53 percent say conditions in their own industries have improved, up from 47 percent last quarter.

Looking ahead, CEOs’ optimism regarding the short-term outlook for the economy is slightly more pessimistic. Currently, 39 percent expect economic conditions to improve over the next six months, compared to 41 percent last quarter. However, 14 percent expect economic conditions to worsen, compared to 3 percent last quarter. About 36 percent of CEOs anticipate an improvement in their own industries over the next six months, down from 48 percent in the second quarter of this year.

The Business Roundtable last month also released its CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 3rd Quarter of 2017.   Notable excerpts from the September 19, 2017 release, titled “Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index Shows Signs of Continued Confidence in Economy“ (pdf):

The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index — a composite of CEO projections for sales and plans for capital spending and hiring over the next six months — stood at 94.5 for the third quarter of 2017, edging up from 93.9 in the second quarter.

For the second quarter in a row, the Index reached its highest level since the second quarter of 2014 (95.4). The Index has also significantly exceeded its historical average of 80.3 for three quarters in a row and remains well above 50, suggesting CEOs’ continued confidence in the U.S. economy.

CEO plans for hiring jumped from the previous quarter, up 9.9 points to 80.2 in the third quarter – the highest reading in more than six years. Expectations for sales dipped by 7.4 to 116.9 for the third quarter, while plans for capital investment moderated slightly from 87.2 to 86.4.

CEOs project 2.1 percent GDP growth in 2017, up 0.1 percent from their projection for 2017 made in June.

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2546.60 as this post is written

On September 8, 2017 the September 2017 Duke/CFO Global Business Outlook was released.  It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions.

In this CFO survey, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them:

The survey has been conducted for 86 consecutive quarters and spans the globe, making it the world’s longest-running and most comprehensive research on senior finance executives. This quarter, nearly 850 CFOs responded to the survey, which ended Sept. 8. Results are for the U.S. unless stated otherwise.

For the second quarter in a row, and for only the second time in the history of the survey, difficulty attracting and retaining qualified employees is the top concern of U.S. CFOs. This same concern ranks highly in many places around the world.

also:

Due in part to the tight labor market, U.S. companies expect to pay higher wages, with median wage growth of about 3 percent over the next 12 months. Wage growth should be strongest in the tech, health care, and construction industries.

also:

The Optimism Index fell slightly this quarter to 66 on a 100-point scale. That’s one point lower than last quarter but still far above the long-run average of 60.

“CFOs remain optimistic not only about the overall economy but about their own firms, too,” said Chris Schmidt, senior editor at CFO Research. “Our analysis of past results shows the CFO Optimism Index is an accurate predictor of hiring plans and overall GDP growth.”

The CFO survey contains two Optimism Index charts, with the bottom chart showing U.S. Optimism (with regard to the economy) at 66, as seen below:

—

It should be interesting to see how well the CFOs predict business and economic conditions going forward.   I discussed past various aspects of this, and the importance of these predictions, in the July 9, 2010 post titled “The Business Environment”.

(past posts on CEO and CFO surveys can be found under the “CFO and CEO Confidence” tag)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2499.53 as this post is written

On July 6, 2017, The Conference Board released the 2nd Quarter Measure Of CEO Confidence.   The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 61, down from 68 in the first quarter. [note:  a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses]

Notable excerpts from this July 6 Press Release include:

CEOs’ appraisal of current economic conditions waned, with 60 percent saying conditions were better compared to six months ago, down from 71 percent in the first quarter. Business leaders were also less positive in their appraisal of current conditions in their own industries. Now, just 47 percent say conditions in their own industries have improved, down from 60 percent last quarter.

Looking ahead, CEOs’ optimism regarding the short-term outlook for the economy moderated due to a greater percentage expressing a “more of the same” sentiment as opposed to foreseeing conditions worsening. Currently, 41 percent expect economic conditions to improve over the next six months, compared to approximately 65 percent last quarter. The outlook for their own industries was also less favorable, with 48 percent of CEOs anticipating an improvement over the next six months, down from 67 percent in the first quarter of this year.

The Business Roundtable last month also released its CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 2nd Quarter of 2017.   Notable excerpts from the June 6, 2017 release, titled “Survey:  America’s Business Leaders Maintaining Confidence in U.S. Economy“:

The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index — a composite of CEO
plans for capital spending and hiring and projections for sales over the next six months —
reached its highest level in three years, since the second quarter of 2014 (95.4). The Index
stood at 93.9 in the second quarter of 2017, up from 93.3 in the first quarter. For the
second quarter in a row, the Index stands well above its historical average of 80.0.

CEO plans for capital investment rose by 4.6 points from the last quarter, while
expectations for sales stayed steady, increasing by 0.5 point. Plans for hiring for the next
six months dropped a modest 3.3 points.

CEOs project 2.0 percent GDP growth in 2017, down two-tenths from their projection for
2017 made in March.

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2427.43 as this post is written

On June 13, 2017 the June Duke/CFO Global Business Outlook was released.  It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions.

In this CFO survey, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them:

Uncertainty about regulatory policy and health care costs is causing chief financial officers in the United States to hold back investment plans, a new survey finds.

also:

The survey has been conducted for 85 consecutive quarters and spans the globe, making it the world’s longest-running and most comprehensive research on senior finance executives. This quarter, nearly 750 CFOs responded to the survey, which ended June 9. Results are for the U.S. unless stated otherwise.

Almost 40 percent of CFOs indicated uncertainty is currently higher than normal. Among those companies, about 60 percent said that uncertainty has caused them to delay new projects and investments.

also:

The Optimism Index fell slightly this quarter to 67 on a 100-point scale. That’s two points lower than last quarter but still far above the long-run average of 60.

“CFOs remain optimistic not only about the overall economy but about their own firms too,” Graham said. “Our analysis of past results shows the CFO Optimism Index is an excellent predictor of the future, especially hiring plans and overall GDP growth.”

Hiring plans are stronger than one year ago and U.S. companies expect to pay higher wages, with median wage growth of about 3 percent over the next 12 months, even greater in the construction and tech industries.

The CFO survey contains two Optimism Index charts, with the bottom chart showing U.S. Optimism (with regard to the economy) at 67, as seen below:

—

It should be interesting to see how well the CFOs predict business and economic conditions going forward.   I discussed past various aspects of this, and the importance of these predictions, in the July 9, 2010 post titled “The Business Environment”.

(past posts on CEO and CFO surveys can be found under the “CFO and CEO Confidence” tag)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2428.11 as this post is written

On April 6, 2017, The Conference Board released the 1st Quarter Measure Of CEO Confidence.   The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 68, up from 65 in the fourth quarter. [note:  a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses]

Notable excerpts from this April 6 Press Release include:

CEOs’ assessment of current economic conditions improved further, with 71 percent saying conditions were better compared to six months ago, up from 59 percent in the final quarter of 2016. Business leaders were also considerably more positive in their assessment of current conditions in their own industries. Now, 60 percent state conditions in their own industries have improved versus 46 percent in the fourth quarter.

CEOs’ optimism regarding the short-term outlook for the economy eased slightly, but remains rather strong. Currently, 65 percent expect economic conditions to improve over the next six months, compared to approximately 67 percent last quarter. The outlook for their own industries, however, was more favorable, with 67 percent of CEOs anticipating an improvement over the next six months, up from 58 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016.

The Business Roundtable last month also released its CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 1st Quarter of 2017.   Notable excerpts from the March 14, 2017 release, titled “Business Leaders Positive on Economy:  Expectations for Sales, Hiring & Investment Make Sharp Rise“:

The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index — a composite of CEO projections for sales and plans for capital spending and hiring over the next six months — made its largest increase since the fourth quarter of 2009.

The Index jumped 19.1 points, from 74.2 in the fourth quarter of last year to 93.3 in the current quarter. For the first time in seven quarters, the Index has risen above its historical average of 79.8. Its highest level over the past 10 years was 113, reached in Q1 2011.

CEO plans for hiring increased by 18 points from the previous quarter, while expectations for sales and capital expenditures increased by 21 and 18.4 points, respectively, over the previous quarter.

CEOs project 2.2 percent GDP growth in 2017, a 0.2 percent increase over their projection for 2017 made last December.

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2359.47 as this post is written

On March 15, 2017 the March Duke/CFO Global Business Outlook was released.  It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions.

In this CFO survey, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them:

Results also show that CFOs are feeling the most confident about economic growth than they’ve been in more than a dozen years, and they strongly support several of the president’s initiatives.

These findings and detailed analysis of tax and economic reforms are from the Duke University/CFO Global Business Outlook. The survey has been conducted for 84 consecutive quarters and spans the globe, making it the world’s longest-running and most comprehensive research on senior finance executives. This quarter, nearly 900 CFOs responded to the survey, which ended March 10. Results are for the U.S. unless stated otherwise.

also:

The Optimism Index jumped this quarter to 69 (on a 100-point scale), the highest level in 14 years and much higher than the long-run average of 60.

“The jump in business optimism is leading to strong hiring and spending plans for 2017,” Graham said. “Our analysis of past forecasts shows that the Optimism Index is an accurate predictor of GDP growth and employment over the next year.”

Sixty-one percent of U.S. firms plan to increase their payrolls in 2017, with an average increase of about 3 percent (median 1 percent). Wage hikes are expected to average nearly 4 percent. Capital spending is expected to increase 6 percent on average (median 3 percent), a notable improvement from flat or negative spending plans for most of 2016.

“There’s a disconnect here,” said Duke finance professor Campbell R. Harvey, founding director of the CFO Survey. “Despite the optimism, the high rate of employment growth and wages, and the substantial possibility of both corporate and individual tax cuts, CFOs have very pessimistic growth forecasts, where only 16.8 percent believe we can hit 3 percent growth in 2017. That is surprising.”

The CFO survey contains two Optimism Index charts, with the bottom chart showing U.S. Optimism (with regard to the economy) at 69, as seen below:

—

It should be interesting to see how well the CFOs predict business and economic conditions going forward.   I discussed past various aspects of this, and the importance of these predictions, in the July 9, 2010 post titled “The Business Environment”.

(past posts on CEO and CFO surveys can be found under the “CFO and CEO Confidence” tag)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2381.38 as this post is written

On January 5, 2017, The Conference Board released the 4th Quarter Measure Of CEO Confidence.   The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 65, up from 50 in the third quarter. [note:  a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses]

Notable excerpts from this January 5 Press Release include:

CEOs’ assessment of current economic conditions was considerably more optimistic, with close to 60 percent saying conditions were better compared to six months ago, up from just 17 percent last quarter. Business leaders’ appraisal of current conditions in their own industries also improved significantly, with 46 percent stating conditions in their own industries have improved versus only 21 percent in the third quarter.

CEOs’ short-term outlook for the U.S. economy also improved markedly, with approximately 67 percent expecting better economic conditions over the next six months, up from 25 percent last quarter. The outlook for their own industries was also more favorable, with 58 percent of CEOs anticipating an improvement over the next six months, compared to about 23 percent in the third quarter.

The Business Roundtable last month also released its CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 4th Quarter of 2016.   Notable excerpts from the December 6, 2016 release, titled “Business Leaders:  Plans for Hiring Rise, Expectations for Sales Increase“ (pdf):

In their first GDP estimate for 2017, CEOs projected 2 percent growth next year. While the outlook for hiring is positive, the overall results suggest continued economic growth, albeit at a slow pace.

The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index — a composite of CEO projections for sales and plans for capital spending and hiring over the next six months — rose by 4.6 points, from 69.6 in the third quarter to 74.2 in the fourth quarter. The Index remains below its historical average of 79.6.

CEO expectations for sales over the next six months increased by 4.5 points, and expectations for hiring increased by a more robust 14.8 points over last quarter. However, CEO plans for capital expenditures fell by 5.4 points relative to last quarter.

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2268.06 as this post is written