ECRI Statements From The Week Of May 7, 2012

Last week, ECRI issued a variety of statements and interviews that I found notable.  The full list is found at ECRI’s website. Each of these interviews and articles is in some way a reaffirmation of ECRI’s recession call of September 30, 2011 that the U.S. was “tipping into recession,” and ECRI has reaffirmed that view since, … Read moreECRI Statements From The Week Of May 7, 2012

ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. Charts – A Notable Pattern

While my overall thoughts on ECRI’s measures and methodologies are complex and lengthy, I would like to highlight one aspect of the ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. charts that I find particularly interesting. From a casual observation standpoint, I have been noticing what I have been referring to as successive “dead cat bounces” in both … Read moreECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. Charts – A Notable Pattern

ECRI’s Recession Reaffirmation Of March 15, 2012 – Notable Excerpts

On September 30, 2011 ECRI released a statement titled “U.S. Economy Tipping Into Recession.” Since that time, Lakshman Achuthan of ECRI has reaffirmed that view in various interviews, such as that on February 26, parts of which I highlighted in the February 28 post titled “The Velocity Of Money – Comments And Charts.” Yesterday, ECRI … Read moreECRI’s Recession Reaffirmation Of March 15, 2012 – Notable Excerpts

ECRI Recession Statement Of September 30 – Notable Excerpts

On September 30 ECRI released a statement titled “U.S. Economy Tipping Into Recession.” My thoughts on ECRI’s work are complex.  While I don’t necessarily agree with their comments in this September 30 statement, I do find the following excerpts to be especially notable: Early last week, ECRI notified clients that the U.S. economy is indeed … Read moreECRI Recession Statement Of September 30 – Notable Excerpts

ECRI On Frequency Of Recessions

I recently came across a notable excerpt in ECRI’s “U.S. Cyclical Outlook” of December 2009 (pdf): “The bottom line is that long expansions are needed after severe recessions to undo the damage.  After the 1932-33 depression, not even four years of expansion were quite enough, despite 10% annual GNP growth.  This time trend growth is … Read moreECRI On Frequency Of Recessions

ECRI WLI Interpretation & Commentary

The recent steep fall in the ECRI WLI has been widely commented upon. I’ve recently run across two items, an article and an interview, that I think are very notable with regard to interpreting the WLI. The first is an article ( “Is ECRI Growth Rate Index Signaling A Double Dip?”) that discusses the predictive … Read moreECRI WLI Interpretation & Commentary

Recent ECRI Statements

In this post I would like to highlight ECRI and some of its recent statements, after which I will make comments. From a recent (7/14/09) Newsweek story, quoting ECRI, found here: http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/1481/ “From our vantage point, every week and every month our call is getting stronger, not weaker, including over the last few weeks,” says … Read moreRecent ECRI Statements