The July 2017 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on July 13, 2017.  The headline is “Forecasters Lower Economic Outlook Amid Congressional Gridlock.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

Two excerpts:

Forecasters in The Wall Street Journal’s monthly survey of economists marked down their outlooks for growth, inflation and interest rates this month, a partial reversal of a postelection bump.

also:

Forecasters assess whether they think the economy is more likely to outperform or underperform their forecasts. The number of economists seeing those risks to the downside climbed to 57% in this month’s survey, the highest since before the election. That’s up from 51% last month and 37% just two months ago.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 14.78%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 33%.  For reference, the average response in June’s survey was 15.80%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 63 academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey occurred on July 7, 2017 to July 11, 2017.

–

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2017:  2.3%

full-year 2018:  2.4%

full-year 2019:  1.9%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2017: 4.3%

December 2018: 4.1%

December 2019: 4.3%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2017: 2.65%

December 2018: 3.12%

December 2019: 3.39%

CPI:

December 2017:  1.8%

December 2018:  2.3%

December 2019:  2.3%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2017: $47.45

for 12/31/2018: $51.16

for 12/31/2019: $51.99

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2448.24 as post is written

The June 2017 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on June 8, 2017.  The headline is “Unresolved U.S. Debt Ceiling Casts a Shadow Over Many Forecasters’ Economic Outlooks.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

Forecasters in The Wall Street Journal’s monthly survey have raised their assessments of the risk facing the U.S. economy. For the first time since the presidential election, a majority of economists in the survey are concerned the economy could do worse than forecast.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 15.80%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 33%.  For reference, the average response in May’s survey was 15.27%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 60 academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey occurred on June 2, 2017 to June 6, 2017.

–

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2017:  2.3%

full-year 2018:  2.4%

full-year 2019:  2.0%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2017: 4.3%

December 2018: 4.1%

December 2019: 4.3%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2017: 2.66%

December 2018: 3.20%

December 2019: 3.57%

CPI:

December 2017:  2.1%

December 2018:  2.3%

December 2019:  2.3%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2017: $50.95

for 12/31/2018: $53.31

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2426.92 as post is written

The Philadelphia Fed 2nd Quarter 2017 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on May 12, 2017.  This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures.

The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations:

Real GDP: (annual average level)

full-year 2017:  2.1%

full-year 2018:  2.5%

full-year 2019:  2.1%

full-year 2020:  2.3%

Unemployment Rate: (annual average level)

for 2017: 4.5%

for 2018: 4.3%

for 2019: 4.4%

for 2020: 4.5%

–

Regarding the risk of a negative quarter in real GDP in any of the next few quarters, mean estimates are 8.4%, 10.9%, 14.0%, 17.1% and 17.2% for each of the quarters from Q2 2017 through Q2 2018, respectively.

As well, there are also a variety of time frames shown (present quarter through the year 2026) with the median expected inflation (annualized) of each.  Inflation is measured in Headline and Core CPI and Headline and Core PCE.  Over all time frames expectations are shown to be in the 1.2% to 2.4% range.

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2390.19 as this post is written

The May 2017 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on May 11, 2017.  The headline is “Economists Say President Donald Trump’s Agenda Would Boost Growth – a Little.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

Early on, White House officials have reportedly considered penciling in growth rates as high as 3.2% a year. But the respondents to the Journal’s survey—a mix of academic, financial and business economists who regularly produce professional forecasts—say numbers so high will be hard to attain, because the policies under consideration just might not pack that punch.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 15.27%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 33%.  For reference, the average response in April’s survey was 15.79%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 59 academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey occurred on May 5, 2017 to May 9, 2017.

–

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2017:  2.2%

full-year 2018:  2.5%

full-year 2019:  2.1%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2017: 4.4%

December 2018: 4.2%

December 2019: 4.4%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2017: 2.79%

December 2018: 3.29%

December 2019: 3.59%

CPI:

December 2017:  2.2%

December 2018:  2.4%

December 2019:  2.3%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2017: $51.66

for 12/31/2018: $54.52

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2391.07 as post is written

The April 2017 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on April 13, 2017.  The headline is “Forecasters Lower Growth Outlook as Hopes for Quick Stimulus Fade.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

Two excerpts:

A growing number of forecasters are beginning to reconsider their bullish outlook for the U.S. economy as doubts grow over the extent to which President Donald Trump will be able to implement his agenda.

also:

Growth forecasts for the first quarter have come down. In December, the average forecast called for 2.3% growth in the first quarter. That had fallen to 1.9% in March and dipped again to 1.4% in this month’s survey.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 15.79%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 38%.  For reference, the average response in March’s survey was 14.41%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 61 academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey occurred on April 7, 2017 to April 11, 2017.

–

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2017:  2.3%

full-year 2018:  2.5%

full-year 2019:  2.1%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2017: 4.4%

December 2018: 4.3%

December 2019: 4.5%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2017: 2.84%

December 2018: 3.32%

December 2019: 3.65%

CPI:

December 2017:  2.4%

December 2018:  2.4%

December 2019:  2.3%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2017: $54.42

for 12/31/2018: $56.40

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2338.52 as post is written

The March 2017 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on March 16, 2017.  The headline is “WSJ Survey Of Economists See Growth Climbing in 2017 and 2018, Then Dissipating.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

Two excerpts:

On average, forecasters expect 2.4% growth in 2017, compared with 2.2% prior to the election. Their increase for 2018 was more significant. They now expect 2.5% growth that year, compared with 2% in pre-election forecasts.

also:

Most remain optimistic for now. The Wall Street Journal’s survey of 61 academic, financial and business economists was conducted from March 10 to March 13, and found that 62% believe it is more likely growth will outperform than underperform.

By contrast, just 23% see risks to the downside. The odds of a recession in the next 12 months are placed at just 14%, down from 20% during the same month last year.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 14.41%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 33%.  For reference, the average response in February’s survey was 15.09%.

–

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2016:  1.9%

full-year 2017:  2.4%

full-year 2018:  2.5%

full-year 2019:  2.1%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2017: 4.5%

December 2018: 4.4%

December 2019: 4.5%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2017: 2.94%

December 2018: 3.39%

December 2019: 3.65%

CPI:

December 2017:  2.4%

December 2018:  2.4%

December 2019:  2.4%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2017: $54.70

for 12/31/2018: $57.31

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2381.38 as post is written