The August 2018 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on August 9, 2018.  The headline is “Growth Seen Hitting 3% in 2018, but Risks to Outlook Mount After This Year.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

The average forecast for growth in 2019 was 2.4%, little changed in recent months. By 2020, the average forecaster projects economic growth will slow to 1.8%. That is down from estimates earlier this year of 2%.

Trump administration officials disagree with these projections. The White House has said 3% growth or better can be sustained. Other government forecasters, including the Federal Reserve, Congressional Budget Office and International Monetary Fund all project a slowdown from the growth rate of 2018. The Fed, for example, sees 2% growth in 2020 and 1.8% growth in the long run.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 18.3%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 50%.  For reference, the average response in July’s survey was 17.71%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 57 academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted August 3 – August 7, 2018.

–

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2018:  3.0%

full-year 2019:  2.4%

full-year 2020:  1.8%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2018: 3.7%

December 2019: 3.6%

December 2020: 3.9%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2018: 3.17%

December 2019: 3.46%

December 2020: 3.50%

CPI:

December 2018:  2.5%

December 2019:  2.4%

December 2020:  2.3%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2018: $69.91

for 12/31/2019: $67.52

for 12/31/2020: $65.66

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

The Philadelphia Fed 3rd Quarter 2018 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on August 10, 2018.  This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures.

The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations:

Real GDP: (annual average level)

full-year 2018:  2.8%

full-year 2019:  2.8%

full-year 2020:  1.8%

full-year 2021:  1.5%

Unemployment Rate: (annual average level)

for 2018: 3.9%

for 2019: 3.6%

for 2020: 3.7%

for 2021: 4.0%

–

Regarding the risk of a negative quarter in real GDP in any of the next few quarters, mean estimates are 6.6%, 10.5%, 13.2%, 16.4% and 19.6% for each of the quarters from Q3 2018 through Q3 2019, respectively.

As well, there are also a variety of time frames shown (present quarter through the year 2027) with the median expected inflation (annualized) of each.  Inflation is measured in Headline and Core CPI and Headline and Core PCE.  Over all time frames expectations are shown to be in the 2.0% to 2.5% range.

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

The July 2018 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on July 12, 2018.  The headline is “Economists in New Survey See Federal Reserve on Autopilot.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

Just about every economist surveyed said the next increase in the Fed’s benchmark federal-funds rate would come at the Sept. 25-26 meeting and 84% predicted the one after that would be at the Dec. 18-19 meeting.

Overall, economists see the rate ending the year at 2.33%, up from the current range of 1.75% to 2%. That is the equivalent to four quarter-percentage-point interest-rate increases in 2018. By the end of 2019, the economists see the federal-funds rate settling at 3%, which would represent two to three rate increases next year.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 17.71%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 35%.  For reference, the average response in June’s survey was 15.83%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 63 academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.

–

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2018:  2.9%

full-year 2019:  2.3%

full-year 2020:  1.8%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2018: 3.7%

December 2019: 3.6%

December 2020: 3.9%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2018: 3.17%

December 2019: 3.49%

December 2020: 3.47%

CPI:

December 2018:  2.5%

December 2019:  2.3%

December 2020:  2.3%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2018: $70.41

for 12/31/2019: $68.14

for 12/31/2020: $65.51

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

The June 2018 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on June 7, 2018.  The headline is “Most Forecasters See Modest Growth Boost From Bank-Regulation Rollback.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

Among dozens of forecasters surveyed in recent days by The Wall Street Journal, 61% said they expected U.S. growth in the medium term would be modestly stronger thanks to the bill signed last month by President Donald Trump. Some 33% said they expected no effect on economic growth from the rules-rollback. Few expected a decline or significant increase.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 15.83%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 33%.  For reference, the average response in May’s survey was 14.59%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 56 academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted June 1 – June 5, 2018.

–

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2018:  2.9%

full-year 2019:  2.4%

full-year 2020:  1.9%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2018: 3.6%

December 2019: 3.6%

December 2020: 3.9%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2018: 3.23%

December 2019: 3.59%

December 2020: 3.54%

CPI:

December 2018:  2.5%

December 2019:  2.3%

December 2020:  2.2%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2018: $67.16

for 12/31/2019: $66.62

for 12/31/2020: $63.05

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

The Philadelphia Fed 2nd Quarter 2018 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on May 11, 2018.  This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures.

The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations:

Real GDP: (annual average level)

full-year 2018:  2.8%

full-year 2019:  2.7%

full-year 2020:  1.9%

full-year 2021:  2.0%

Unemployment Rate: (annual average level)

for 2018: 3.9%

for 2019: 3.7%

for 2020: 3.9%

for 2021: 4.0%

–

Regarding the risk of a negative quarter in real GDP in any of the next few quarters, mean estimates are 5.3%, 8.6%, 11.1%, 14.4% and 15.6% for each of the quarters from Q2 2018 through Q2 2019, respectively.

As well, there are also a variety of time frames shown (present quarter through the year 2027) with the median expected inflation (annualized) of each.  Inflation is measured in Headline and Core CPI and Headline and Core PCE.  Over all time frames expectations are shown to be in the 1.9% to 2.5% range.

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2726.31 as this post is written

The May 2018 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on May 10, 2018.  The headline is “Economists Think the Next U.S. Recession Could Begin in 2020.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

The economic expansion that began in mid-2009 and already ranks as the second-longest in American history most likely will end in 2020 as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to cool off an overheating economy, according to forecasters surveyed by The Wall Street Journal.

Some 59% of private-sector economists surveyed in recent days said the expansion was most likely to end in 2020. An additional 22% selected 2021, and smaller camps predicted the next recession would arrive next year, in 2022 or at some unspecified later date.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 14.59%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 32%.  For reference, the average response in April’s survey was 15.33%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 60 academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted May 4 – May 8, 2018.

–

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2018:  2.9%

full-year 2019:  2.4%

full-year 2020:  1.9%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2018: 3.7%

December 2019: 3.6%

December 2020: 3.9%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2018: 3.24%

December 2019: 3.54%

December 2020: 3.59%

CPI:

December 2018:  2.4%

December 2019:  2.3%

December 2020:  2.3%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2018: $66.80

for 12/31/2019: $65.07

for 12/31/2020: $63.42

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

The April 2018 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on April 12, 2018.  The headline is “Powerful Forces Seen Restraining U.S. Pay Growth.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

A majority of the 60 economists surveyed this month by the Journal said three factors are meaningfully holding down readings on wage growth: low productivity growth, demographic changes, and foreign competition and globalization. Other possible explanations, such as hidden slack in the labor market or government regulation, were cited by fewer than half of forecasters.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 15.33%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 35%.  For reference, the average response in March’s survey was 13.66%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 60 academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted April 6 – April 10, 2018.

–

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2018:  2.8%

full-year 2019:  2.5%

full-year 2020:  2.0%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2018: 3.8%

December 2019: 3.6%

December 2020: 3.9%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2018: 3.18%

December 2019: 3.49%

December 2020: 3.62%

CPI:

December 2018:  2.3%

December 2019:  2.3%

December 2020:  2.3%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2018: $62.06

for 12/31/2019: $61.20

for 12/31/2020: $61.54

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2663.99 as this post is written