Tag Archives: Economic Forecasts

The February 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The February 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on February 7, 2019.  The headline is “ Most Economists Say Fresh Government Shutdown Would Hurt U.S. Growth.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

Two excerpts:

In response to a separate question, most forecasters, 45.7%, said they expect the next recession to start in 2020, while 39.1% predicted it will start in 2021.

also:

More than three-quarters of forecasters, 76.4%, said they saw a greater risk that the economy would grow more slowly than it would grow faster. While that was a drop from 83.9% in January, it remains a sign of pessimism about the outlook. This time a year ago, fewer than 30% of respondents saw the risk to their growth forecast as tilted to the downside.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 24.53%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 60%.  For reference, the average response in January’s survey was 24.80%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 62 academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted February 1 – February 5, 2019.

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2018:  3.0%

full-year 2019:  2.2%

full-year 2020:  1.7%

full-year 2021:  1.8%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2019: 3.7%

December 2020: 3.8%

December 2021: 4.1%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2019: 3.04%

December 2020: 3.08%

December 2021: 3.11%

CPI:

December 2018:  2.00%

December 2019:  2.20%

December 2020:  2.20%

December 2021:  2.20%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2019: $58.40

for 12/31/2020: $58.91

for 12/31/2021: $58.41

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2696.27 as this post is written

The January 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The January 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 10, 2019.  The headline is “Economists See U.S. Recession Risks Rising.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

Two excerpts:

On average, economists surveyed in the past week as part of The Wall Street Journal’s monthly poll said there was a 25% chance of a recession in the next year, the highest level since October 2011. The probability was just 13% a year ago.

also:

Forecasters are even more concerned about the outlook for 2020. More than half of the economists, 56.6%, said they expected a recession to start in 2020, a presidential election year, while another 26.4% of those surveyed expect a recession in 2021.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 24.80%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 60%.  For reference, the average response in December’s survey was 22.02%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 73 academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted January 4 – January 8, 2019.

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2018:  3.1%

full-year 2019:  2.2%

full-year 2020:  1.7%

full-year 2021:  1.8%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2019: 3.6%

December 2020: 3.9%

December 2021: 4.2%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2019: 3.10%

December 2020: 3.12%

December 2021: 3.18%

CPI:

December 2018:  2.00%

December 2019:  2.20%

December 2020:  2.20%

December 2021:  2.20%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2019: $56.50

for 12/31/2020: $58.31

for 12/31/2021: $58.80

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2592.11 as this post is written

CEO Confidence Surveys 4Q 2018 – Notable Excerpts

On January 3, 2019, The Conference Board released the 4th Quarter Measure Of CEO Confidence.   The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 42, down from 55 in the third quarter. [note:  a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses]

Notable excerpts from this January 3, 2019 Press Release include:

CEOs’ assessment of current economic conditions turned pessimistic in the fourth quarter, with only 21 percent saying conditions are better compared to six months ago, down from 49 percent last quarter. Meanwhile, about 39 percent say conditions are worse, up from less than 8 percent in the prior quarter. CEOs were also much more negative about current conditions in their own industries compared to six months ago. Now, just 21 percent say conditions are better, down from 31 percent last quarter, while those who say conditions have worsened rose to 35 percent, up from 25 percent last quarter.

Looking ahead, CEOs’ expectations regarding the economic outlook have also turned negative. Now, just 12 percent expect economic conditions to improve over the next six months, down from 23 percent in the third quarter. Meanwhile, about 54 percent expect economic conditions will worsen, compared to 22 percent last quarter. CEOs’ expectations regarding short-term prospects in their own industries over the next six months were also more pessimistic. Now, only 14 percent anticipate an improvement in conditions, down from 22 percent last quarter, while 44 percent expect conditions to worsen, up from 19 percent in the third quarter.

Last month, the Business Roundtable also released its CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 4th Quarter of 2018.   Notable excerpts from the December 7 release, titled “Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Remains Strong“:

Declining 4.9 points from 109.3 in the third quarter of 2018, the Q4 2018 CEO Economic Outlook Index of 104.4 ranks among the top 10 percent of all readings in the survey’s 16-year history and is well above the historical average of 82.1. This is the eighth straight quarter where the Index has exceeded its historical average, signaling a continued positive direction for the U.S. economy.

also:

In their first estimate of 2019 U.S. GDP growth, CEOs projected 2.7 percent growth for the year ahead.

Additional details can be seen in the sources mentioned above.

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2584.96 as this post is written

The December 2018 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The December 2018 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on December 13, 2018.  The headline is “Economists See U.S.-China Trade War as Biggest Threat in 2019.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

Two excerpts:

Nearly half of economists who responded to a survey by The Wall Street Journal, 47.3%, said they viewed the U.S. dispute with Beijing as the No. 1 risk for 2019. Some 20% cited financial market disruptions and 12.7% pointed to a slowdown in business investment.

also:

Just 7.3% of economists, or four respondents in total, agreed that Fed rate increases were the biggest threat to the economy in 2019.

A couple of private-sector economists cited other risks, such as excessive federal spending. Just over 9% pointed to slowing global growth as the biggest threat.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 22.02%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 50%.  For reference, the average response in November’s survey was 19.55%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 60 academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted December 7 – December 11, 2018.

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2018:  3.1%

full-year 2019:  2.3%

full-year 2020:  1.7%

full-year 2021:  1.8%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2018: 3.7%

December 2019: 3.6%

December 2020: 3.8%

December 2021: 4.1%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2018: 3.00%

December 2019: 3.35%

December 2020: 3.38%

December 2021: 3.36%

CPI:

December 2018:  2.20%

December 2019:  2.30%

December 2020:  2.10%

December 2021:  2.20%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2018: $54.95

for 12/31/2019: $59.21

for 12/31/2020: $59.43

for 12/31/2021: $60.42

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2644.29 as this post is written

December 2018 Duke/CFO Global Business Outlook Survey – Notable Excerpts

On December 12, 2018 the December 2018 Duke/CFO Global Business Outlook was released.  It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions.

In this CFO survey press release, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them:

Nearly half (48.6 percent) of U.S. CFOs believe that the nation’s economy will be in recession by the end of 2019, and 82 percent believe that a recession will have begun by the end of 2020. 

also:

In 2019, CFOs expect sub-3% growth for the U.S. economy, with accompanying capital spending and employment growth of about 3 percent. 

also:

Moreover, their forecasts are skewed to the downside, with a one-in-ten chance that annual real growth will be a meager 0.6 percent. In this worst-case scenario, CFOs would expect their capital spending to fall by 1.3 percent and for hiring to remain flat.

The CFO survey contains two Optimism Index charts, with the bottom chart showing U.S. Optimism (with regard to the economy) at 66, as seen below:

CFO Optimism

It should be interesting to see how well the CFOs predict business and economic conditions going forward.   I discussed past various aspects of this, and the importance of these predictions, in the July 9, 2010 post titled “The Business Environment”.

(past posts on CEO and CFO surveys can be found under the “CFO and CEO Confidence” tag)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2664.75 as this post is written

The November 2018 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The November 2018 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on November 15, 2018.  The headline is “Economists Split on Whether Outcome of Midterms Will Increase or Decrease Uncertainty.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

Two excerpts:

Half of economists expected the next recession to start in 2020—the year of the next presidential election—and just over 70% of respondents said that there was a greater risk that economic growth would undershoot their forecasts over the next 12 months than overshoot.

also:

One point economists appeared to agree on is they expected the labor market to remain strong.

They estimated employers need to add just over 127,000 jobs a month over the next 12 months for the U.S. economy absorb new workers into the labor force and hold the unemployment rate steady.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 19.55%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 50%.  For reference, the average response in October’s survey was 17.64%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 58 academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted November 9 – November 13, 2018.

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2018:  3.1%

full-year 2019:  2.3%

full-year 2020:  1.8%

full-year 2021:  1.8%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2018: 3.6%

December 2019: 3.5%

December 2020: 3.6%

December 2021: 3.9%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2018: 3.23%

December 2019: 3.53%

December 2020: 3.45%

December 2021: 3.47%

CPI:

December 2018:  2.30%

December 2019:  2.40%

December 2020:  2.20%

December 2021:  2.20%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2018: $64.00

for 12/31/2019: $65.27

for 12/31/2020: $63.13

for 12/31/2021: $61.94

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2728.23 as this post is written

Philadelphia Fed – 4th Quarter 2018 Survey Of Professional Forecasters

The Philadelphia Fed 4th Quarter 2018 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on November 13, 2018.  This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures.

The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations:

Real GDP: (annual average level)

full-year 2018:  2.9%

full-year 2019:  2.7%

full-year 2020:  2.1%

full-year 2021:  1.7%

Unemployment Rate: (annual average level)

for 2018: 3.9%

for 2019: 3.7%

for 2020: 3.8%

for 2021: 4.0%

Regarding the risk of a negative quarter in real GDP in any of the next few quarters, mean estimates are 5.7%, 10.6%, 13.6%, 19.1% and 22.8% for each of the quarters from Q4 2018 through Q4 2019, respectively.

As well, there are also a variety of time frames shown (present quarter through the year 2027) with the median expected inflation (annualized) of each.  Inflation is measured in Headline and Core CPI and Headline and Core PCE.  Over all time frames expectations are shown to be in the 2.0% to 2.4% range.

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2729.79 as this post is written

The October 2018 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The October 2018 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 11, 2018.  The headline is “WSJ Survey:  Economists Increasingly Confident of Fed Rate Hikes.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

Private economists have continued to raise their projections for interest rates through next year, showing greater agreement with the Federal Reserve’s expectations, according to The Wall Street Journal’s latest survey.

All 57 respondents expected the Fed to raise its benchmark federal-funds rate once more this year. Looking further ahead, 42% forecast three central-bank rate rises in 2019, while 21% project four. In last month’s survey, the shares were 41% and 17%, respectively.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 17.64%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 50%.  For reference, the average response in September’s survey was 17.73%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 57 academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted October 5 – October 9, 2018.

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2018:  3.1%

full-year 2019:  2.4%

full-year 2020:  1.8%

full-year 2021:  1.8%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2018: 3.7%

December 2019: 3.6%

December 2020: 3.8%

December 2021: 4.1%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2018: 3.24%

December 2019: 3.50%

December 2020: 3.47%

December 2021: 3.53%

CPI:

December 2018:  2.50%

December 2019:  2.30%

December 2020:  2.30%

December 2021:  2.20%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2018: $73.72

for 12/31/2019: $70.86

for 12/31/2020: $68.27

for 12/31/2021: $66.33

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2744.12 as this post is written

CEO Confidence Surveys 3Q 2018 – Notable Excerpts

On October 4, 2018, The Conference Board released the 3rd Quarter Measure Of CEO Confidence.   The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 55, down from 63 in the second quarter. [note:  a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses]

Notable excerpts from this October 4 Press Release include:

CEOs’ assessment of current economic conditions is less positive, with 49 percent saying conditions are better compared to six months ago, down from 74 percent last quarter. However, 43 percent of CEOs say conditions have remained the same, and only 8 percent say conditions are worse. CEOs were also less optimistic about current conditions in their own industries compared to six months ago. Now, about 31 percent say conditions are better compared to 51 percent last quarter.

Looking ahead, CEOs’ expectations regarding the economic outlook are also less optimistic than last quarter. Now, just 23 percent expect economic conditions to improve over the next six months, compared to 48 percent in the second quarter. About 22 percent expect economic conditions will worsen, compared to 14 percent last quarter. CEOs’ expectations regarding short-term prospects in their own industries over the next six months were also less optimistic. Now, only 22 percent anticipate an improvement in conditions, down from 42 percent last quarter. Some 19 percent expect conditions to worsen, up from just 9 percent in the second quarter.

Last month, The Business Roundtable also released its CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 3rd Quarter of 2018.   Notable excerpts from the release, titled “Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index Remains Strong, Declines Slightly in Q3“:

The Q3 2018 CEO Economic Outlook Index was 109.3, a decline of 1.8 points from 111.1 in the second quarter of 2018. At 109.3, the Q3 Index is the fifth-highest in the survey’s 16-year history and well above the historical average of 81.6. This is the seventh straight quarter where the Index has exceeded its historical average, signaling a continued positive direction for the U.S. economy.

also:

In their fourth estimate of 2018 U.S. GDP growth, CEOs projected 2.8 percent growth for the year, up slightly from their 2.7 percent estimate in the second quarter.

Additional details can be seen in the sources mentioned above.

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2888.02 as this post is written

September 2018 Duke/CFO Global Business Outlook Survey – Notable Excerpts

On September 12, 2018 the September 2018 Duke/CFO Global Business Outlook was released.  It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions.

In this CFO survey press release, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them:

The proportion of firms indicating they are having difficulty hiring and retaining qualified employees is at a two-decade high, with 53 percent of CFOs calling it a top four concern. That’s up sharply from the 41 percent who said the same thing last quarter.  “The tight labor market continues to put upward pressure on wages,” said Chris Schmidt, senior editor at CFO Research. “Wage inflation is now a top five concern of U.S. CFOs.” Employees are willing to leave their jobs for greener pastures. Over the past 12 months, U.S. CFOs report they had to replace 14 percent of their workforces, compared to 13 percent turnover in 2016.  Among companies that list hiring as a top concern, 56 percent have increased salaries to improve their chances of hiring and retaining workers; 31 percent have increased HR budgets to better advertise positions; 29 percent have increased vacation or flex hours; and 21 percent have improved health care benefits.

also:

The Optimism Index about the U.S. economy declined to 70 this quarter, compared to an all-time high of 71 last quarter, on a 100-point scale. CFO optimism about their own firms’ financial prospects increased to 71.4, the highest level since 2007. Optimism fell in Africa, Europe, and Latin America and held steady in Asia. The survey’s CFO Optimism Index is an accurate predictor of future hiring and overall GDP growth.

The CFO survey contains two Optimism Index charts, with the bottom chart showing U.S. Optimism (with regard to the economy) at 70, as seen below:

Duke CFO Optimism

It should be interesting to see how well the CFOs predict business and economic conditions going forward.   I discussed past various aspects of this, and the importance of these predictions, in the July 9, 2010 post titled “The Business Environment”.

(past posts on CEO and CFO surveys can be found under the “CFO and CEO Confidence” tag)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2893.98 as this post is written