The February 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on February 7, 2019.  The headline is “ Most Economists Say Fresh Government Shutdown Would Hurt U.S. Growth.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

Two excerpts:

In response to a separate question, most forecasters, 45.7%, said they expect the next recession to start in 2020, while 39.1% predicted it will start in 2021.

also:

More than three-quarters of forecasters, 76.4%, said they saw a greater risk that the economy would grow more slowly than it would grow faster. While that was a drop from 83.9% in January, it remains a sign of pessimism about the outlook. This time a year ago, fewer than 30% of respondents saw the risk to their growth forecast as tilted to the downside.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 24.53%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 60%.  For reference, the average response in January’s survey was 24.80%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 62 academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted February 1 – February 5, 2019.

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The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2018:  3.0%

full-year 2019:  2.2%

full-year 2020:  1.7%

full-year 2021:  1.8%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2019: 3.7%

December 2020: 3.8%

December 2021: 4.1%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2019: 3.04%

December 2020: 3.08%

December 2021: 3.11%

CPI:

December 2018:  2.00%

December 2019:  2.20%

December 2020:  2.20%

December 2021:  2.20%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2019: $58.40

for 12/31/2020: $58.91

for 12/31/2021: $58.41

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2696.27 as this post is written

The January 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 10, 2019.  The headline is “Economists See U.S. Recession Risks Rising.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

Two excerpts:

On average, economists surveyed in the past week as part of The Wall Street Journal’s monthly poll said there was a 25% chance of a recession in the next year, the highest level since October 2011. The probability was just 13% a year ago.

also:

Forecasters are even more concerned about the outlook for 2020. More than half of the economists, 56.6%, said they expected a recession to start in 2020, a presidential election year, while another 26.4% of those surveyed expect a recession in 2021.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 24.80%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 60%.  For reference, the average response in December’s survey was 22.02%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 73 academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted January 4 – January 8, 2019.

–

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2018:  3.1%

full-year 2019:  2.2%

full-year 2020:  1.7%

full-year 2021:  1.8%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2019: 3.6%

December 2020: 3.9%

December 2021: 4.2%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2019: 3.10%

December 2020: 3.12%

December 2021: 3.18%

CPI:

December 2018:  2.00%

December 2019:  2.20%

December 2020:  2.20%

December 2021:  2.20%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2019: $56.50

for 12/31/2020: $58.31

for 12/31/2021: $58.80

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2592.11 as this post is written

The December 2018 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on December 13, 2018.  The headline is “Economists See U.S.-China Trade War as Biggest Threat in 2019.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

Two excerpts:

Nearly half of economists who responded to a survey by The Wall Street Journal, 47.3%, said they viewed the U.S. dispute with Beijing as the No. 1 risk for 2019. Some 20% cited financial market disruptions and 12.7% pointed to a slowdown in business investment.

also:

Just 7.3% of economists, or four respondents in total, agreed that Fed rate increases were the biggest threat to the economy in 2019.

A couple of private-sector economists cited other risks, such as excessive federal spending. Just over 9% pointed to slowing global growth as the biggest threat.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 22.02%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 50%.  For reference, the average response in November’s survey was 19.55%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 60 academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted December 7 – December 11, 2018.

–

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2018:  3.1%

full-year 2019:  2.3%

full-year 2020:  1.7%

full-year 2021:  1.8%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2018: 3.7%

December 2019: 3.6%

December 2020: 3.8%

December 2021: 4.1%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2018: 3.00%

December 2019: 3.35%

December 2020: 3.38%

December 2021: 3.36%

CPI:

December 2018:  2.20%

December 2019:  2.30%

December 2020:  2.10%

December 2021:  2.20%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2018: $54.95

for 12/31/2019: $59.21

for 12/31/2020: $59.43

for 12/31/2021: $60.42

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2644.29 as this post is written

The November 2018 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on November 15, 2018.  The headline is “Economists Split on Whether Outcome of Midterms Will Increase or Decrease Uncertainty.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

Two excerpts:

Half of economists expected the next recession to start in 2020—the year of the next presidential election—and just over 70% of respondents said that there was a greater risk that economic growth would undershoot their forecasts over the next 12 months than overshoot.

also:

One point economists appeared to agree on is they expected the labor market to remain strong.

They estimated employers need to add just over 127,000 jobs a month over the next 12 months for the U.S. economy absorb new workers into the labor force and hold the unemployment rate steady.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 19.55%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 50%.  For reference, the average response in October’s survey was 17.64%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 58 academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted November 9 – November 13, 2018.

–

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2018:  3.1%

full-year 2019:  2.3%

full-year 2020:  1.8%

full-year 2021:  1.8%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2018: 3.6%

December 2019: 3.5%

December 2020: 3.6%

December 2021: 3.9%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2018: 3.23%

December 2019: 3.53%

December 2020: 3.45%

December 2021: 3.47%

CPI:

December 2018:  2.30%

December 2019:  2.40%

December 2020:  2.20%

December 2021:  2.20%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2018: $64.00

for 12/31/2019: $65.27

for 12/31/2020: $63.13

for 12/31/2021: $61.94

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

The Philadelphia Fed 4th Quarter 2018 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on November 13, 2018.  This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures.

The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations:

Real GDP: (annual average level)

full-year 2018:  2.9%

full-year 2019:  2.7%

full-year 2020:  2.1%

full-year 2021:  1.7%

Unemployment Rate: (annual average level)

for 2018: 3.9%

for 2019: 3.7%

for 2020: 3.8%

for 2021: 4.0%

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Regarding the risk of a negative quarter in real GDP in any of the next few quarters, mean estimates are 5.7%, 10.6%, 13.6%, 19.1% and 22.8% for each of the quarters from Q4 2018 through Q4 2019, respectively.

As well, there are also a variety of time frames shown (present quarter through the year 2027) with the median expected inflation (annualized) of each.  Inflation is measured in Headline and Core CPI and Headline and Core PCE.  Over all time frames expectations are shown to be in the 2.0% to 2.4% range.

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

The October 2018 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 11, 2018.  The headline is “WSJ Survey:  Economists Increasingly Confident of Fed Rate Hikes.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

Private economists have continued to raise their projections for interest rates through next year, showing greater agreement with the Federal Reserve’s expectations, according to The Wall Street Journal’s latest survey.

All 57 respondents expected the Fed to raise its benchmark federal-funds rate once more this year. Looking further ahead, 42% forecast three central-bank rate rises in 2019, while 21% project four. In last month’s survey, the shares were 41% and 17%, respectively.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 17.64%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 0% to 50%.  For reference, the average response in September’s survey was 17.73%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s respondents were 57 academic, financial and business economists.  Not every economist answered every question.  The survey was conducted October 5 – October 9, 2018.

–

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:

GDP:

full-year 2018:  3.1%

full-year 2019:  2.4%

full-year 2020:  1.8%

full-year 2021:  1.8%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2018: 3.7%

December 2019: 3.6%

December 2020: 3.8%

December 2021: 4.1%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2018: 3.24%

December 2019: 3.50%

December 2020: 3.47%

December 2021: 3.53%

CPI:

December 2018:  2.50%

December 2019:  2.30%

December 2020:  2.30%

December 2021:  2.20%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2018: $73.72

for 12/31/2019: $70.86

for 12/31/2020: $68.27

for 12/31/2021: $66.33

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation