Tag Archives: USA Today / IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index

Updates On Economic Indicators September 2012

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The September Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of September 24, 2012:

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 9/21/12 (incorporating data through 9/14/12) the WLI was at 125.4 and the WLI, Gr. was at 2.7%.

A chart of the WLI, Gr. since 2000, from Doug Short’s blog of September 21 titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index Growth at Highest Level Since July 2011” :

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting 9-15-10 to 9-15-12:

The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the September 20 release, the LEI was at 95.7 and the CEI was at 104.7 in August.

An excerpt from the September 20 release:

Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “The economy continues to be buffeted by strong headwinds domestically and internationally. As a result, the pace of growth is unlikely to change much in the coming months. Weak domestic demand continues to be a major drag on the economy.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of September 20 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index:  Fluctuating Around a Flat Trend” :

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1455.10 as this post is written

Updates On Economic Indicators August 2012

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The August Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of August 20, 2012:

The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:

An excerpt from the July 19 update titled “Index forecasts weaker growth” :

The July update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, slowing to 1.6% in July and then increasing to 2% by year end. While employment, housing (mostly the multifamily sector) and consumer spending are slowly recovering, concerns about the Eurozone and world growth continue.

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 8/17/12 (incorporating data through 8/10/12) the WLI was at 122.8 and the WLI, Gr. was at -.6%.

A chart of the WLI, Gr. since 2000, from Doug Short’s blog of August 17 titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index Continues to Undermine ECRI’s Recession Call” :

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting 8-11-10 to 8-11-12:

The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the August 17 release, the LEI was at 95.8 and the CEI was at 105.1 in July.

An excerpt from the August 17 release:

Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “The indicators point to slow growth through the end of 2012. Lack of domestic demand remains a big issue. However, back-to-school sales are better than expected, suggesting that the consumer is starting to come back. Retail sales this time of year are often an indicator of how the holiday season will turn out.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of August 17, titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index:  Slow Growth Through the End of 2012” :

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1418.13 as this post is written

Updates On Economic Indicators July 2012

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The July Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of July 23, 2012:

The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:

An excerpt from the July 19 update titled “Index forecasts weaker growth” :

The July update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, slowing to 1.6% in July and then increasing to 2% by year end. While employment, housing (mostly the multifamily sector) and consumer spending are slowly recovering, concerns about the Eurozone and world growth continue.

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 7/20/12 (incorporating data through 7/13/12) the WLI was at 121.9 and the WLI, Gr. was at -2.3%.

A chart of the WLI, Gr. since 2000, from Doug Short’s blog of July 20 titled “ECRI Recession Call:  Weekly Leading Index Declines” :

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting 7-14-10 to 7-14-12:

The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the July 19 release, the LEI was at 95.6 and the CEI was at 104.5 in June.

An excerpt from the July 19 release:

Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “The U.S. economy is growing very slowly. The CEI basically reflects this steady but soft pace of overall economic activity. The LEI is pointing to no strengthening over the next few months, as the economy continues to sail through strong headwinds domestically and internationally.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of July 19, titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index: ‘Sustained Weak Growth Through The Fall’” :

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1339.98 as this post is written

Updates On Economic Indicators June 2012

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The June Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of June 25, 2012:

The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:

An excerpt from the May 24 update titled “Index forecasts weaker growth” :

The May update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, slowing to 2.0% during the summer months. While employment, housing (mostly the multifamily sector) and consumer spending are slowly recovering, concerns about the Eurozone and world growth continue.

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 6/22/12 (incorporating data through 6/15/12) the WLI was at 121.3 and the WLI, Gr. was at -3.5%.

A chart of the WLI, Gr. since 2000, from Doug Short’s blog of June 22 titled “ECRI Recession Call Update:  Weekly Leading Index Slips Again” :

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting 6-16-10 to 6-16-12:

The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the June 21 release, the LEI was at 95.8 and the CEI was at 104.3 in May.

An excerpt from the June 21 release:

Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: “The LEI rose in May, reversing the slight decline in April. Weakness in the average workweek in manufacturing, stock prices and consumer expectations kept the LEI from rising further. Its six-month growth rate remains in expansionary territory and well above its growth at the end of 2011, pointing to a relatively low risk of a downturn in the second half of 2012.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of June 21, titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Up .3% in May” :

 

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1316.35 as this post is written

Updates On Economic Indicators May 2012

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The May Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of May 21, 2012:

The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:

An excerpt from the April 26 update titled “Index forecasts weaker growth” :

The April update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, increasing to 2.5% in February and March and then slowing to 2.0% during the summer months. While employment, housing (mostly the multifamily sector) and consumer spending are slowly recovering, concerns about the Eurozone and world growth continue.

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 5/18/12 (incorporating data through 5/11/12) the WLI was at 124.5 and the WLI, Gr. was at .4%.

A chart of the WLI, Gr. since 2000, from Doug Short’s blog of May 18 titled “ECRI Recession Call Update:  WLI Declines, But Growth Improves Slightly” :

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting 5-12-10 to 5-12-12:

 

The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the May 17 release, the LEI was at 95.5 and the CEI was at 104.3 in April.

An excerpt from the May 17 release:

Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: “The LEI declined slightly in April. Falling housing permits, rising initial claims for unemployment insurance and subdued consumer expectations offset small gains in the remaining components. The LEI’s six-month growth rate fell slightly, but remains in expansionary territory and well above its growth at the end of 2011. The CEI, a measure of current economic conditions, has also increased for five consecutive months.”

 

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1317.73 as this post is written

Updates On Economic Indicators April 2012

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The April Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of April 26, 2012:

The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:

An excerpt from the March 22 update titled “Index forecasts weaker growth” :

The February update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, increasing to 2.5% in March and April and then slowing to 2.1% in July. While employment, housing (mostly the multifamily sector) and consumer spending are slowly recovering, concerns about the Eurozone and world growth continue.

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 4/20/12 the WLI was at 123.9 and the WLI, Gr. was at 1.2%.

A chart of the WLI, Gr. since 2000, from Doug Short’s blog of April 20 titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Indicator:  The Growth Index Slips” :

The Dow Jones ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator):

no current value available

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting 4-21-10 to 4-21-12:

 

The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the April 19 release, the LEI was at 95.7 and the CEI was at 104.2 in March.

An excerpt from the April 19 release:

Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “Despite relatively weak data on jobs, home building and output in the past month or two, the indicators signal continued economic momentum. We expect a gradual improvement in growth past the summer months.”

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1399.98 as this post is written

Updates On Economic Indicators March 2012

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The March Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of March 26, 2012:

The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:

An excerpt from the March 22 update titled “Index forecasts weaker growth” :

The February update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, increasing to 2.5% in March and April and then slowing to 2.1% in July. While employment, housing (mostly the multifamily sector) and consumer spending are slowly recovering, concerns about the Eurozone and world growth continue.

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 3/23/12 the WLI was at 125.7 and the WLI, Gr. was at -.4%.

A chart of the WLI, Gr. since 2000, from Doug Short’s blog of March 23 titled “ECRI Indicators Improve, But Beware the ‘Yo-Yo Years” :

The Dow Jones ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator):

no current value available

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting 3-17-10 to 3-17-12:

The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the March 22 release, the LEI was at 95.5 and the CEI was at 104.0 in February.

An excerpt from the March 22 release:

Added Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “Recent data reflect an economy that improved this winter. To be sure, an unseasonably mild winter has contributed to many of the recent positive economic reports. But the consistent signal for the leading series suggests that progress on jobs, output, and incomes may continue through the summer months, if not beyond.”

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1410.57 as this post is written

Updates On Economic Indicators February 2012

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The February Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of February 21, 2012:

The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:

An excerpt from the February 6 update titled “Index forecasts weaker growth” :

The January update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, increasing to 2.5% in January and then slowing to 1.6% in June. While employment, housing (mostly the multifamily sector) and consumer spending are slowly recovering, concerns about the Eurozone and world growth continue.

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 2/17/12 the WLI was at 123.5 and the WLI, Gr. was at -3.7%.

A chart of the WLI, Gr. since 2000, from Doug Short’s blog of February 17 titled “ECRI Controversial Recession Call:  Fifth Consecutive Improvement in the Growth Index” :

The Dow Jones ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator):

The Indicator as of January 9 was at 41.9, as seen below:

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting 2-11-10 to 2-11-12:

The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the February 17 release, the LEI was at 94.9 and the CEI was at 103.5 in January.

An excerpt from the February 17 release:

Added Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “Recent data reflect an economy that started the year on a positive note.  The CEI shows some small signs of economic strengthening in the fourth quarter and continued to point in this direction in January. The LEI suggests these conditions will continue and could possibly even pick up this spring and summer.”

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1362.12 as this post is written

Updates On Economic Indicators January 2012

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The January Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of January 26, 2012:

The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:

An excerpt from the January 3 update titled “Index forecasts weaker growth” :

The December update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, increasing to 2.5% in January and then slowing to 1.8% in May. While employment, housing (mostly the multifamily sector) and consumer spending are slowly recovering, concerns about the Eurozone and world growth continue.

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 1/13/12 the WLI was at 123.4 and the WLI, Gr. was at -7.5%.

A chart of the WLI Growth since 2000, from Doug Short’s blog of January 20 titled “ECRI Recession Call:  Growth Index Contraction Eases” :

The Dow Jones ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator):

The Indicator as of January 9 was at 41.9, as seen below:

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting 1-21-10 to 1-21-12:

The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the January 26 release, the LEI was at 94.3 and the CEI was at 103.4 in December.

An excerpt from the January 26 release:

Added Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “The CEI and other recent data reflect an economy that ended 2011 on a positive note and the LEI provides some reason for cautious optimism in the­ first half of 2012. This somewhat positive outlook for a strengthening domestic economy would seem to be at odds with a global economy that is losing some steam. Looking ahead, the big question remains whether cooling conditions elsewhere will limit domestic growth or, conversely, growth in the U.S. will lend some economic support to the rest of the globe.”

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1318.43 as this post is written

Updates On Economic Indicators December 2011

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The December Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of December 22, 2011:

The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:

An excerpt from the December 1 update titled “Index forecasts weaker growth” :

The November update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, increasing to 2.2% in November and December and then slowing to 1.6% in April. Persistent unemployment, elevated debt levels, high energy and food prices and low confidence have stalled consumer spending. Businesses are hesitant to expand amid uncertainty.

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 12/9/11 the WLI was at 122.3 and the WLI, Gr. was at -7.5%.

A chart of the WLI Growth since 2000, from Doug Short’s blog of December 16 titled “ECRI Recession Call:  Growth Index Contraction Moderates Fractionally” :

The Dow Jones ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator):

The Indicator as of December 13 was at 42.0, as seen below:

 

 

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting 12-17-09 to 12-17-11:

The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the December 22 release, the LEI was at 118 and the CEI was at 103.7 in November.

An excerpt from the December 22 release:

Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: “November’s increase in the LEI for the U.S. was widespread among the leading indicators and continues to suggest that the risk of an economic downturn in the near term has receded. Interest rate spread and housing permits made the largest contributions to the LEI this month, overcoming a falling average workweek in manufacturing, which reversed its October gain. The CEI also rose on improving employment and personal income although industrial production fell in November.”

Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “The LEI is pointing to continued growth this winter, possibly even gaining momentum by spring. For the second month in a row, building permits made a relatively strong contribution and there is a chance that the long decline in housing is finally slowing. However, this somewhat positive outlook for the domestic economy is at odds with a global economy that appears to be losing steam. In particular, a deeper-than-expected recession in Europe could easily derail the outlook for the U.S. economy.”

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1254.00 as this post is written