America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
“When you live in a bubble, everyone is delusional…” – -Nouriel Roubini, May 11 2010 Charlie Rose interview Many people fail to see any asset bubbles in our current economic environment. Others see isolated asset bubbles. As I have previously stated in the April 8 post, “Our societal inability to spot and prevent asset bubbles …
I recently came across a notable excerpt in ECRI’s “U.S. Cyclical Outlook” of December 2009 (pdf): “The bottom line is that long expansions are needed after severe recessions to undo the damage. After the 1932-33 depression, not even four years of expansion were quite enough, despite 10% annual GNP growth. This time trend growth is …
On April 8 I commented upon William C. Dudley’s “Asset Bubbles” speech. In that speech, he refers to Frederic Mishkin’s speech of May 15, 2008. It should also be noted that Mishkin offered similar thoughts in a Financial Times op-ed of November 9, 2009. There is much I can comment about in each of Mishkin’s …
Alan Greenspan recently gave a lengthy video interview on Bloomberg. A short summary is found at this link; the actual video is the first listed near the bottom of the article. I found the video to be most interesting. Greenspan elaborates upon his recent “The Crisis” paper, which I mentioned here. As well, he discusses …
Those familiar with this blog know that I believe (based off of my overall analysis) that our current purported economic recovery is not sustainable. As I have indicated in previous writings, we as a nation need to be more “strategic” in nature if we are to attain true Sustainable Prosperity. One critical question that we …
On January 25 Fortune had an article on asset bubbles titled “Beware the 4 new asset bubbles.” The four purported bubbles mentioned in the article are Gold, oil, the stock market, and Treasuries. I have discussed each of these markets, with the exception of oil, in previous posts. I found the logic and discussion in …
As a follow-up to yesterday’s post, here is a passage from Larry Summers’ March 13, 2009 speech that speaks of the importance of economic strength in achieving broader societal goals: “Our single most important priority is bringing about economic recovery and ensuring that the next economic expansion, unlike it’s predecessors, is fundamentally sound and not …
On this blog, I have maintained a focus on the U.S. economy. I have done so for a variety of reasons, many of which are explained in this June 21 2009 post: https://www.economicgreenfield.com/2009/06/21/the-global-economic-future/ Additionally, from a practical perspective, from a time standpoint it would be prohibitive to attempt to comment on all global economic affairs that I consider relevant. …
Given the incredibly outsized intervention efforts in the residential real estate market, I think it is important to examine some dynamics of the real estate bubble. Here is a chart from the 12/15/09 Contrary Investor commentary that I believe is interesting, as it depicts some underlying residential real estate fundamentals. It shows the equity and mortgage …
One of the terms that I frequently mention is “Sustainable Prosperity.” I think the term and its meaning have tremendous significance to our economic future at this juncture. Providing an exact definition for the term is difficult due to the complexity of the underlying concepts. “Sustainable” can be defined in terms of time, as well …