America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The December Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on December 9, 2011. The headline is “Inflation Seen Outpacing Home Prices.” The commentary largely focuses on the housing market and when the economists polled believed it might recover. I found these excerpts regarding the housing market to be interesting, although I don’t agree with …
On March 28 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Here is the most recent chart. This chart was last updated on December 1, incorporating data from 12-31-93 to 11-25-11 on a weekly basis. The present level …
On November 25, the Liberty Street Economics blog (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) published a post titled “The Failure to Forecast the Great Recession.” The post examines the inability of the New York Fed, as well as the vast majority of professional forecasters in general, to predict the “Great Recession.” It also mentions the …
On an intermittent basis I have commented on ECRI’s methodologies and its indices, including the WLI Growth. I include the WLI Growth in the monthly update of economic indicators. Although ECRI’s WLI Growth measure receives far greater attention, it should also be noted that there is a ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index) from which the …
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The November Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of November 21, 2011: – The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: An excerpt from the November 8 update titled “Index …
The November Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on November 10, 2011. The headline is “Economists See Smaller Chance of U.S. Recession.” I found various aspects of the survey to be interesting, including the following excerpts: The 52 economists surveyed in November—not all of whom answer every question—put 1-in-4 odds that the U.S. …
The Philadelphia Fed Fourth Quarter 2011 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on November 14. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following expectations: GDP: full-year 2011 : 1.8% full-year 2012 : 2.4% full-year 2013 : 2.7% full-year …
Yesterday saw the release of the Economic Projections of the Federal Reserve Board Members and Federal Reserve Bank Presidents, November 2011 (pdf). Of note, since January, the Federal Reserve has been reducing its economic growth forecasts. _____ I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with …
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The October Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of October 24, 2011: – The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: An excerpt from the September 27 update titled “Index forecasts …
On March 28 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Here is the most recent chart. This chart was last updated on October 20, incorporating data from 12-31-93 to 10-14-11 on a weekly basis. The present level …