Category Archives: Investor

S&P500 “Bottom Up” EPS Forecasts Years 2017, 2018 And 2019

As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag)

The following estimates are from Exhibit 23 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of February 20, 2018, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts.  For reference, the Year 2014 value is $118.78/share, the Year 2015 value is $117.46, and the Year 2016 value is $118.10/share:

Year 2017 estimate:

$132.55/share

Year 2018 estimate:

$157.67/share

Year 2019 estimate:

$173.52/share

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2716.26 as this post is written

Standard & Poor’s S&P500 Earnings Estimates For 2018 And 2019 – As Of February 16, 2018

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag)

For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of February 16, 2018:

Year 2018 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $156.25/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A

-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $145.67/share

Year 2019 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $172.10/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A

-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $156.40/share

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2734.89 as this post is written

Building Financial Danger – February 8, 2018 Update

My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts in this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.”  These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematic conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment that endangers the overall financial system.

Also of ongoing immense importance is the existence of various immensely large asset bubbles, a subject of which I have extensively written.  While all of these asset bubbles are wildly pernicious and will have profound adverse future implications, hazards presented by the bond market bubble are especially notable.

Predicting the specific timing and extent of a stock market crash is always difficult, and the immense complexity of today’s economic situation makes such a prediction even more challenging. With that being said, my analyses continue to indicate that a near-term exceedingly large (from an ultra-long term perspective) stock market crash – that would also involve (as seen in 2008) various other markets as well – will occur.

(note: the “next crash” and its aftermath has great significance and implications, as discussed in the post of January 6, 2012 titled “The Next Crash And Its Significance“ and various subsequent posts in the “Economic Depression” category)

As reference, below is a daily chart since 2008 of the S&P500 (through February 7, 2018 with a last price of 2681.66 ), depicted on a LOG scale, indicating both the 50dma and 200dma as well as price labels:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

S&P500 since 2008

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2640.98 as this post is written

Four Charts Of Recent S&P500 Price Volatility – February 6, 2018

This post is an update to past posts regarding stock market volatility.

While I track many different measures of volatility, I find the following charts to be both simple and clear in depicting the recent volatility in the stock market.

Overall, my analyses indicates that there are many reasons for this volatility, and the volatility is highly significant.

For reference purposes, shown below are four charts with y-axis price labels.  Of note, yesterday (February 5, 2018) the S&P500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) had their largest point declines in history and the VIX had its largest point gain and percentage gain.

First, a one-year daily depiction of the S&P500 through yesterday’s (February 5, 2018) close, with a 50-day moving average (MA50) depicted by the blue line:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com)

S&P500 1-year daily

Second, a three-month daily depiction of the S&P500 through yesterday’s (February 5, 2018) close, with a 50-day moving average (MA50) depicted by the blue line:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com)

S&P500 daily 3 months

Third, a three-month depiction of the S&P500 in 60-minute intervals through yesterday’s (February 5, 2018) close, with a 50-hour moving average (MA50) depicted by the blue line:

S&P500 60 minutes 3 months

Fourth, a three-month depiction of the S&P500 in 10-minute intervals through yesterday’s (February 5, 2018) close, with a 50-period moving average (MA50) depicted by the blue line:

S&P500 10 minutes 3 months

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2648.94 as this post is written

Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of January 12, 2018:

from page 26:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 EPS forecasts

from page 27:

S&P500 EPS years 2008-2019

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2798.03 as this post is written

S&P500 Bottom Up EPS Forecasts Years 2017, 2018 And 2019

As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag)

The following estimates are from Exhibit 23 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of January 16, 2018, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts.  For reference, the Year 2014 value is $118.78/share, the Year 2015 value is $117.46, and the Year 2016 value is $118.10/share:

Year 2017 estimate:

$131.46/share

Year 2018 estimate:

$150.37/share

Year 2019 estimate:

$165.69/share

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2798.03 as this post is written

Standard & Poor’s S&P500 Earnings Estimates For 2018 And 2019 – As Of January 12, 2018

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag)

For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of January 12, 2018:

Year 2018 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $149.04/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A

-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $138.91/share

Year 2019 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $164.58/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A

-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of N/A

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2802.20 as this post is written

Building Financial Danger – January 8, 2018 Update

My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts in this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.”  These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematic conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment that endangers the overall financial system.

Also of ongoing immense importance is the existence of various immensely large asset bubbles, a subject of which I have extensively written.  While all of these asset bubbles are wildly pernicious and will have profound adverse future implications, hazards presented by the bond market bubble are especially notable.

Predicting the specific timing and extent of a stock market crash is always difficult, and the immense complexity of today’s economic situation makes such a prediction even more challenging. With that being said, my analyses continue to indicate that a near-term exceedingly large (from an ultra-long term perspective) stock market crash – that would also involve (as seen in 2008) various other markets as well – will occur.

(note: the “next crash” and its aftermath has great significance and implications, as discussed in the post of January 6, 2012 titled “The Next Crash And Its Significance“ and various subsequent posts in the “Economic Depression” category)

As reference, below is a daily chart since 2008 of the S&P500 (through January 5, 2018 with a last price of 2743.15), depicted on a LOG scale, indicating both the 50dma and 200dma as well as price labels:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

S&P500 since 2008

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2743.15 as this post is written

U.S. Dollar Decline – January 2, 2018 Update

U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine.  As such, I have extensively written about it.  I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar.  Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits.  The negative impact of a substantial Dollar decline can’t, in my opinion, be overstated.

The following three charts illustrate various technical analysis aspects of the U.S. Dollar, as depicted by the U.S. Dollar Index.

First, a look at the monthly U.S. Dollar from 1983.  This clearly shows a long-term weakness, with the blue line showing technical support until 2007, and the red line representing a (past) trendline:

(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com; annotations by the author)

(click on charts to enlarge images)

US Dollar Monthly chart

Next, another chart, this one focused on the daily U.S. Dollar since 2000 on a LOG scale.  The red line represents a (past) trendline.  The gray dotted line is the 200-day M.A. (moving average):

U.S. Dollar 200dma chart

Lastly, a chart of the Dollar on a weekly LOG scale.  There are two clearly marked past channels, with possible technical support depicted by the dashed light blue line:

U.S. Dollar Weekly LOG

I will continue providing updates on this U.S. Dollar situation regularly as it deserves very close monitoring…

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2673.61 as this post is written

Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of December 14, 2017:

from page 22:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 expected earnings

from page 23:

S&P500 annual earnings

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2681.47 as this post is written