Category Archives: Stock Market

Building Financial Danger – February 8, 2018 Update

My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts in this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.”  These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematic conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment that endangers the overall financial system.

Also of ongoing immense importance is the existence of various immensely large asset bubbles, a subject of which I have extensively written.  While all of these asset bubbles are wildly pernicious and will have profound adverse future implications, hazards presented by the bond market bubble are especially notable.

Predicting the specific timing and extent of a stock market crash is always difficult, and the immense complexity of today’s economic situation makes such a prediction even more challenging. With that being said, my analyses continue to indicate that a near-term exceedingly large (from an ultra-long term perspective) stock market crash – that would also involve (as seen in 2008) various other markets as well – will occur.

(note: the “next crash” and its aftermath has great significance and implications, as discussed in the post of January 6, 2012 titled “The Next Crash And Its Significance“ and various subsequent posts in the “Economic Depression” category)

As reference, below is a daily chart since 2008 of the S&P500 (through February 7, 2018 with a last price of 2681.66 ), depicted on a LOG scale, indicating both the 50dma and 200dma as well as price labels:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

S&P500 since 2008

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2640.98 as this post is written

Four Charts Of Recent S&P500 Price Volatility – February 6, 2018

This post is an update to past posts regarding stock market volatility.

While I track many different measures of volatility, I find the following charts to be both simple and clear in depicting the recent volatility in the stock market.

Overall, my analyses indicates that there are many reasons for this volatility, and the volatility is highly significant.

For reference purposes, shown below are four charts with y-axis price labels.  Of note, yesterday (February 5, 2018) the S&P500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) had their largest point declines in history and the VIX had its largest point gain and percentage gain.

First, a one-year daily depiction of the S&P500 through yesterday’s (February 5, 2018) close, with a 50-day moving average (MA50) depicted by the blue line:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com)

S&P500 1-year daily

Second, a three-month daily depiction of the S&P500 through yesterday’s (February 5, 2018) close, with a 50-day moving average (MA50) depicted by the blue line:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com)

S&P500 daily 3 months

Third, a three-month depiction of the S&P500 in 60-minute intervals through yesterday’s (February 5, 2018) close, with a 50-hour moving average (MA50) depicted by the blue line:

S&P500 60 minutes 3 months

Fourth, a three-month depiction of the S&P500 in 10-minute intervals through yesterday’s (February 5, 2018) close, with a 50-period moving average (MA50) depicted by the blue line:

S&P500 10 minutes 3 months

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2648.94 as this post is written

S&P500 And Long-Term VIX Chart – Through February 5, 2018

For reference purposes, below is a chart of the S&P500 and VIX from year 2003 through Monday’s (February 5, 2018) close.  The closing price for the S&P500 was 2648.94 and the VIX had a closing value of 37.32.  A dashed blue line depicts the VIX value of 20.  Price labels are also shown:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

VIX and S&P500 chart since 2003

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2648.94 as this post is written

Stock Market Capitalization To GDP – Through Q4 2017

“Stock market capitalization to GDP” is a notable and important metric regarding stock market valuation.  In February of 2009 I wrote of it in “Does Warren Buffett’s Market Metric Still Apply?

Doug Short has recently published a post depicting this “stock market capitalization to GDP” metric.

As seen in his February 5, 2018 post titled “Market Cap to GDP:  An Updated Look at the Buffett Valuation Indicator” he shows two different versions, varying by the definition of stock market capitalization. (note:  additional explanation is provided in his post.)

For reference purposes, here is the first chart, with the stock market capitalization as defined by the Federal Reserve:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

stock market capitalization to GDP

Here is the second chart, with the stock market capitalization as defined by the Wilshire 5000:

stock market capitalization to GDP

As one can see in both measures depicted above, “stock market capitalization to GDP” is at notably high levels from a long-term historical perspective.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2648.94 as this post is written

VIX Weekly And Monthly Charts Since The Year 2000 – February 5, 2018 Update

For reference purposes, below are two charts of the VIX from year 2000 through Friday’s (February 2, 2018) close, which had a closing value of 17.31.

Here is the VIX Weekly chart, depicted on a LOG scale, with the 13- and 34-week moving averages, seen in the cyan and red lines, respectively:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

VIX Weekly Chart

Here is the VIX Monthly chart, depicted on a LOG scale, with the 13- and 34-month moving average, seen in the cyan and red lines, respectively:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

VIX Monthly chart

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2762.13 as this post is written

Charts Of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980 – February 4, 2018 Update

In the March 9, 2012 post (“Charts of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980“) I highlighted two charts for reference purposes.

Below are those two charts, updated through the latest daily closing price.

The first is a daily chart of the S&P500 (shown in green), as well as five prominent (AAPL, IBM, AMZN, SBUX, CAT) individual stocks, since 2005.  There is a blue vertical line that is very close to the March 6, 2009 low.  As one can see, both the S&P500 performance, as well as many stocks including the five shown, have performed strongly since the March 6, 2009 low:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

S&P500 and prominent stocks

This next chart shows, on a monthly LOG basis, the S&P500 since 1980.  I find this chart notable as it provides an interesting long-term perspective on the S&P500′s performance.  The 20, 50, and 200-month moving averages are shown in blue, red, and green lines, respectively:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

S&P500 monthly since 1980

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2762.13 as this post is written

Long-Term Stock Charts DJIA, DJTA, S&P500, And Nasdaq Composite

StockCharts.com maintains long-term historical charts of various major stock market indices, interest rates, currencies, commodities, and economic indicators.

As a long-term reference, below are charts depicting various stock market indices for the dates shown.  All charts are depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale.

(click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, from 1900 – February 2, 2018:

DJIA since 1900

The Dow Jones Transportation Average, from 1900 – February 2, 2018:

DJTA since 1900

The S&P500, from 1925 – February 2, 2018:

S&P500 since 1925

The Nasdaq Composite, from 1978 – February 2, 2018:

Nasdaq Composite since 1978

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2762.13 as this post is written

S&P500 And Long-Term VIX Chart – Through January 24, 2018

For reference purposes, below is a chart of the S&P500 and VIX from year 2003 through Wednesday’s (January 24, 2018) close.  The closing price for the S&P500 was 2837.54 and the VIX had a closing value of 11.47.  A dashed blue line depicts the VIX value of 20.  Price labels are also shown:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

VIX vs SPX chart

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2837.54 as this post is written

Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of January 12, 2018:

from page 26:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 EPS forecasts

from page 27:

S&P500 EPS years 2008-2019

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2798.03 as this post is written

S&P500 Bottom Up EPS Forecasts Years 2017, 2018 And 2019

As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag)

The following estimates are from Exhibit 23 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of January 16, 2018, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts.  For reference, the Year 2014 value is $118.78/share, the Year 2015 value is $117.46, and the Year 2016 value is $118.10/share:

Year 2017 estimate:

$131.46/share

Year 2018 estimate:

$150.37/share

Year 2019 estimate:

$165.69/share

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2798.03 as this post is written