Tag Archives: ECRI

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – February 15, 2019 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“):

For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are.

However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.

Below are three long-term charts, from the Doug Short site’s ECRI update post of February 15, 2019 titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update:  All Measures Down WoW.”  These charts are on a weekly basis through the February 15, 2019 release, indicating data through February 8, 2019.

Here is the ECRI WLI (defined at ECRI’s glossary):

ECRI WLI

This next chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the Year-over-Year change in the 4-week moving average of the WLI:

ECRI YoY of the Four-Week Moving Average

This last chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the WLI, Gr.:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

_________

I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2775.60 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators January 2019

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The January 2019 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of January 28, 2019:

The CFNAI, with current reading of .27:

CFNAI

source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, January 28, 2019; 
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI

The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of .16:

CFNAIMA3

source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, January 28, 2019; 
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of January 25, 2019 (incorporating data through January 18, 2019) the WLI was at 145.8 and the WLI, Gr. was at -5.3%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from the Doug Short’s site ECRI update post of January 25, 2019:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through January 19, 2019:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the January 24, 2019 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Declined” (pdf) the LEI was at 111.7, the CEI was at 105.1, and the LAG was 106.7 in December.

An excerpt from the release:

“The US LEI declined slightly in December and the recent moderation in the LEI suggests that the US economic growth rate may slow down this year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “While the effects of the government shutdown are not yet reflected here, the LEI suggests that the economy could decelerate towards 2 percent growth by the end of 2019.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from the Doug Short’s site Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of January 24, 2019:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2636.93 as this post is written

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – January 18, 2019 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“):

For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are.

However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.

Below are three long-term charts, from the Doug Short site’s ECRI update post of January 18, 2019 titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update:  YoY at 6+ Year Low.”  These charts are on a weekly basis through the January 18, 2019 release, indicating data through January 11, 2019.

Here is the ECRI WLI (defined at ECRI’s glossary):

ECRI WLI

This next chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the Year-over-Year change in the 4-week moving average of the WLI:

This last chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the WLI, Gr.:

ECRI WLI, Gr.

_________

I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2669.71 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators December 2018

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The December 2018 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of December 24, 2018:

The CFNAI, with current reading of .22:

CFNAI

source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, December 24, 2018;
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI

The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of .12:

CFNAIMA3

source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, December 24, 2018;
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of December 21, 2018 (incorporating data through December 14, 2018) the WLI was at 144.7 and the WLI, Gr. was at -3.9%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from the Doug Short’s site ECRI update post of December 21, 2018:

ECRL WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through December 15, 2018:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the December 20, 2018 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased Slightly in November” (pdf) the LEI was at 111.8, the CEI was at 104.9, and the LAG was 106.0 in November.

An excerpt from the release:

“The LEI increased slightly in November, but its overall pace of improvement has slowed in the last two months,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Despite the recent volatility in stock prices, the strengths among the leading indicators have been widespread. Solid GDP growth at about 2.8 percent should continue in early 2019, but the LEI suggests the economy is likely to moderate further in the second half of 2019.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from the Doug Short’s site Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of December 20, 2018:

Conference Board LEI


_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2351.10 as this post is written

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – December 14, 2018 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“):

For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are.

However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.

Below are three long-term charts, from the Doug Short site’s ECRI update post of December 14, 2018 titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update:  ‘Inflation Cycles Down as Fed Stays Starstruck’.”  These charts are on a weekly basis through the December 14, 2018 release, indicating data through December 7, 2018.

Here is the ECRI WLI (defined at ECRI’s glossary):

ECRI, WLI

This next chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the Year-over-Year change in the 4-week moving average of the WLI:

ECRI WLI YoY of the Four-Week Moving Average

This last chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the WLI, Gr.:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

_________

I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2599.95 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators November 2018

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The November 2018 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of November 26, 2018:

The CFNAI, with current reading of .24:

CFNAI_11-26-18 .24

source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, November 26, 2018;

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI

The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of .31:

CFNAIMA3_11-26-18 .31

source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, November 26, 2018;

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of November 21, 2018 (incorporating data through November 16, 2018) the WLI was at 144.9 and the WLI, Gr. was at -3.7%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from the Doug Short’s site ECRI update post of November 21, 2018:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through November 17, 2018:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the November 21, 2018 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in October” (pdf) the LEI was at 112.1, the CEI was at 104.7, and the LAG was 105.5 in October.

An excerpt from the release:

“The US LEI increased slightly in October, and the pace of improvement slowed for the first time since May,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Economic Research and Global Research Chair at The Conference Board. “The index still points to robust economic growth in early 2019, but the rapid pace of growth may already have peaked. While near term economic growth should remain strong, longer term growth is likely to moderate to about 2.5 percent by mid to late 2019.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from the Doug Short’s site Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of November 21, 2018:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2665.71 as this post is written

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – November 16, 2018 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“):

For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are.

However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.

Below are three long-term charts, from the Doug Short site’s ECRI update post of November 16, 2018 titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update:  ‘Construction Crumbling’.”  These charts are on a weekly basis through the November 16, 2018 release, indicating data through November 9, 2018.

Here is the ECRI WLI (defined at ECRI’s glossary):

ECRI WLI

This next chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the Year-over-Year change in the 4-week moving average of the WLI:

ECRI WLI YoY of the Four-Week Moving Average

This last chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the WLI, Gr.:

ECRI WLI, Gr. -3.0 Percent

_________

I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2727.82 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators October 2018

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The October 2018 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of October 22, 2018:

The CFNAI, with current reading of .17:

CFNAI_10-22-18 .17

source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, October 22, 2018;

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI

The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of .21:

CFNAIMA3_10-21-18 .21

source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, October 22, 2018;

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of October 19, 2018 (incorporating data through October 12, 2018) the WLI was at 147.4 and the WLI, Gr. was at .1%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from the Doug Short’s site ECRI update post of October 19, 2018:

ECRI WLI,Gr. since 2000 .1 Percent

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through October 13, 2018:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the October 18, 2018 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in September” (pdf) the LEI was at 111.8, the CEI was at 104.4, and the LAG was 105.3 in September.

An excerpt from the release:

“The US LEI improved further in September, suggesting the US business cycle remains on a strong growth trajectory heading into 2019. However, the LEI’s growth has slowed somewhat in recent months, suggesting the economy may be facing capacity constraints and increasingly tight labor markets,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director and Global Research Chair at The Conference Board. “Economic growth could exceed 3.5 percent in the second half of 2018, but, unless the momentum in housing, orders and stock prices accelerates, that pace is unlikely to be sustained in 2019.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from the Doug Short’s site Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of October 19, 2018:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2761.97 as this post is written

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – October 19, 2018 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“):

For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are.

However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.

Below are three long-term charts, from the Doug Short site’s ECRI update post of October 19, 2018 titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update.”  These charts are on a weekly basis through the October 19, 2018 release, indicating data through October 12, 2018.

Here is the ECRI WLI (defined at ECRI’s glossary):

ECRI Weekly Leading Index 147.4

This next chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the Year-over-Year change in the 4-week moving average of the WLI:

ECRI WLI YoY of the Four-Week Moving Average

This last chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the WLI, Gr.:

ECRI WLI,Gr. .1 Percent

_________

I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2765.41 as this post is written

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – September 28, 2018 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“):

For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are.

However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.

Below are three long-term charts, from the Doug Short site’s ECRI update post of September 28, 2018 titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update.”  These charts are on a weekly basis through the September 28, 2018 release, indicating data through September 21, 2018.

Here is the ECRI WLI (defined at ECRI’s glossary):

ECRI WLI 148.5

This next chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the Year-over-Year change in the 4-week moving average of the WLI:

ECRI WLI YoY of the Four-Week Moving Average

This last chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the WLI, Gr.:

ECRI WLI, Gr. .4

_________

I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2913.85 as this post is written