Tag Archives: ECRI

Updates Of Economic Indicators April 2019

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The April 2019 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of April 22, 2019:

The CFNAI, with current reading of -.15:

CFNAI

source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, April 22, 2019;
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI

The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of -.24:

CFNAIMA3

source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, April 22, 2019;
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of April 18, 2019 (incorporating data through April 12, 2019) the WLI was at 148.1 and the WLI, Gr. was at 1.2%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from the Doug Short’s site ECRI update post of April 18, 2019:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through April 13, 2019:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the April 18, 2019 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased” (pdf) the LEI was at 111.9, the CEI was at 105.8, and the LAG was 107.0 in March.

An excerpt from the release:

“The US LEI picked up in March with labor markets, consumers’ outlook, and financial conditions making the largest contributions,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. ”Despite the relatively large gain in March, the trend in the US LEI continues to moderate, suggesting that growth in the US economy is likely to decelerate toward its long term potential of about 2 percent by year end.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from the Doug Short’s site Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of April 18, 2019:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2902.89 as this post is written

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – April 18, 2019 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“):

For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are.

However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.

Below are three long-term charts, from the Doug Short site’s ECRI update post of April 18, 2019 titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update:  WLI YoY Approaching Positive.”  These charts are on a weekly basis through the April 18, 2019 release, indicating data through April 12, 2019.

Here is the ECRI WLI (defined at ECRI’s glossary):

ECRI WLI

This next chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the Year-over-Year change in the 4-week moving average of the WLI:

ECRI YoY of the Four-Week Moving Average

This last chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the WLI, Gr.:

ECRI WLI,Gr. 1.2 Percent

_________

I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2905.03 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators March 2019

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The March 2019 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of March 25, 2019:

The CFNAI, with current reading of -.29:

CFNAI

source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, March 25, 2019;
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI

The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of -.18:

CFNAIMA3

source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, March 25, 2019;
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of March 22, 2019 (incorporating data through March 15, 2019) the WLI was at 145.6 and the WLI, Gr. was at -2.3%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from the Doug Short’s site ECRI update post of March 23, 2019:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through March 16, 2019:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the March 21, 2019 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased” (pdf) the LEI was at 111.5, the CEI was at 105.9, and the LAG was 107.0 in February.

An excerpt from the release:

“The US LEI increased in February for the first time in five months,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “February’s improvement was driven by accommodative financial conditions and a rebound in stock prices, which more than offset weaknesses in the labor market components. Despite the latest results, the US LEI’s growth rate has slowed over the past six months, suggesting that while the economy will continue to expand in the near-term, its pace of growth could decelerate by year end.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from the Doug Short’s site Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of March 21, 2019:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2798.27 as this post is written

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – March 15, 2019 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“):

For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are.

However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.

Below are three long-term charts, from the Doug Short site’s ECRI update post of March 15, 2019 titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update:  All Measures Up Again.”  These charts are on a weekly basis through the March 15, 2019 release, indicating data through March 8, 2019.

Here is the ECRI WLI (defined at ECRI’s glossary):

ECRI WLI

This next chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the Year-over-Year change in the 4-week moving average of the WLI:

ECRI YoY of the Four-Week Moving Average

This last chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the WLI, Gr.:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

_________

I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2823.59 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators February 2019

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The February 2019 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of February 25, 2019:

The CFNAI, with current reading of -.43:

CFNAI

source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, February 25, 2019;
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI

The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of 0:

CFNAIMA3

source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, February 25, 2019;
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of February 22, 2019 (incorporating data through February 15, 2019) the WLI was at 144.2 and the WLI, Gr. was at -4.7%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from the Doug Short’s site ECRI update post of February 22, 2019:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through February 16, 2019:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the February 22, 2019 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Declined Slightly in January” (pdf) the LEI was at 111.3, the CEI was at 105.5, and the LAG was 106.7 in January.

An excerpt from the release:

“Based on preliminary data, the US LEI declined very slightly in January and December’s decline was revised up to no change,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “In January, the strengths in the financial components were offset by the weaknesses in the labor market components. The US LEI has now been flat essentially since October 2018. The Conference Board forecasts that US GDP growth will likely decelerate to about 2 percent by the end of 2019.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from the Doug Short’s site Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of February 21, 2019:

Conference Board Leading Economic Index

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2808.95 as this post is written

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – February 15, 2019 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“):

For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are.

However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.

Below are three long-term charts, from the Doug Short site’s ECRI update post of February 15, 2019 titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update:  All Measures Down WoW.”  These charts are on a weekly basis through the February 15, 2019 release, indicating data through February 8, 2019.

Here is the ECRI WLI (defined at ECRI’s glossary):

ECRI WLI

This next chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the Year-over-Year change in the 4-week moving average of the WLI:

ECRI YoY of the Four-Week Moving Average

This last chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the WLI, Gr.:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

_________

I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2775.60 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators January 2019

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The January 2019 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of January 28, 2019:

The CFNAI, with current reading of .27:

CFNAI

source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, January 28, 2019; 
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI

The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of .16:

CFNAIMA3

source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, January 28, 2019; 
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of January 25, 2019 (incorporating data through January 18, 2019) the WLI was at 145.8 and the WLI, Gr. was at -5.3%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from the Doug Short’s site ECRI update post of January 25, 2019:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through January 19, 2019:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the January 24, 2019 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Declined” (pdf) the LEI was at 111.7, the CEI was at 105.1, and the LAG was 106.7 in December.

An excerpt from the release:

“The US LEI declined slightly in December and the recent moderation in the LEI suggests that the US economic growth rate may slow down this year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “While the effects of the government shutdown are not yet reflected here, the LEI suggests that the economy could decelerate towards 2 percent growth by the end of 2019.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from the Doug Short’s site Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of January 24, 2019:

Conference Board LEI

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2636.93 as this post is written

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – January 18, 2019 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“):

For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are.

However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.

Below are three long-term charts, from the Doug Short site’s ECRI update post of January 18, 2019 titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update:  YoY at 6+ Year Low.”  These charts are on a weekly basis through the January 18, 2019 release, indicating data through January 11, 2019.

Here is the ECRI WLI (defined at ECRI’s glossary):

ECRI WLI

This next chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the Year-over-Year change in the 4-week moving average of the WLI:

This last chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the WLI, Gr.:

ECRI WLI, Gr.

_________

I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2669.71 as this post is written

Updates Of Economic Indicators December 2018

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The December 2018 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of December 24, 2018:

The CFNAI, with current reading of .22:

CFNAI

source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, December 24, 2018;
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI

The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of .12:

CFNAIMA3

source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, December 24, 2018;
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAIMA3

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of December 21, 2018 (incorporating data through December 14, 2018) the WLI was at 144.7 and the WLI, Gr. was at -3.9%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from the Doug Short’s site ECRI update post of December 21, 2018:

ECRL WLI,Gr.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through December 15, 2018:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):

As per the December 20, 2018 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased Slightly in November” (pdf) the LEI was at 111.8, the CEI was at 104.9, and the LAG was 106.0 in November.

An excerpt from the release:

“The LEI increased slightly in November, but its overall pace of improvement has slowed in the last two months,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Despite the recent volatility in stock prices, the strengths among the leading indicators have been widespread. Solid GDP growth at about 2.8 percent should continue in early 2019, but the LEI suggests the economy is likely to moderate further in the second half of 2019.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from the Doug Short’s site Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of December 20, 2018:

Conference Board LEI


_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2351.10 as this post is written

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – December 14, 2018 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“):

For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are.

However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.

Below are three long-term charts, from the Doug Short site’s ECRI update post of December 14, 2018 titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update:  ‘Inflation Cycles Down as Fed Stays Starstruck’.”  These charts are on a weekly basis through the December 14, 2018 release, indicating data through December 7, 2018.

Here is the ECRI WLI (defined at ECRI’s glossary):

ECRI, WLI

This next chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the Year-over-Year change in the 4-week moving average of the WLI:

ECRI WLI YoY of the Four-Week Moving Average

This last chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the WLI, Gr.:

ECRI WLI,Gr.

_________

I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2599.95 as this post is written