On July 6, 2017, The Conference Board released the 2nd Quarter Measure Of CEO Confidence. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 61, down from 68 in the first quarter. [note: a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses]
Notable excerpts from this July 6 Press Release include:
CEOs’ appraisal of current economic conditions waned, with 60 percent saying conditions were better compared to six months ago, down from 71 percent in the first quarter. Business leaders were also less positive in their appraisal of current conditions in their own industries. Now, just 47 percent say conditions in their own industries have improved, down from 60 percent last quarter.
Looking ahead, CEOs’ optimism regarding the short-term outlook for the economy moderated due to a greater percentage expressing a “more of the same” sentiment as opposed to foreseeing conditions worsening. Currently, 41 percent expect economic conditions to improve over the next six months, compared to approximately 65 percent last quarter. The outlook for their own industries was also less favorable, with 48 percent of CEOs anticipating an improvement over the next six months, down from 67 percent in the first quarter of this year.
The Business Roundtable last month also released its CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 2nd Quarter of 2017. Notable excerpts from the June 6, 2017 release, titled “Survey: America’s Business Leaders Maintaining Confidence in U.S. Economy“:
The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index — a composite of CEO
plans for capital spending and hiring and projections for sales over the next six months —
reached its highest level in three years, since the second quarter of 2014 (95.4). The Index
stood at 93.9 in the second quarter of 2017, up from 93.3 in the first quarter. For the
second quarter in a row, the Index stands well above its historical average of 80.0.
CEO plans for capital investment rose by 4.6 points from the last quarter, while
expectations for sales stayed steady, increasing by 0.5 point. Plans for hiring for the next
six months dropped a modest 3.3 points.
CEOs project 2.0 percent GDP growth in 2017, down two-tenths from their projection for
2017 made in March.
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2427.43 as this post is written