America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Ben Bernanke wrote an op-ed in The Washington Post yesterday titled, “What the Fed did and why: supporting the recovery and sustaining price stability.” I could write very extensively about this piece as it is highly notable on several fronts. For now, I will limit my comments. My analysis indicates that the risks of QE …
Barron’s came out with its “Fall 2010 Big Money Poll” on November 1. There are a variety of statistics and poll results in it that I found interesting. Of special note is the S&P500 2011 profit consensus of respondents, at $91.11. There seems to be a growing overall consensus that S&P500 Operating Earnings will be …
The results of yesterday’s elections further solidify the trend of increasing political volatility. Survey results indicate that much of this volatility has been driven by widespread dissatisfaction concerning the economic situation. While this volatility has been recognized, many of its implications have lacked recognition. On January 25, 2010 I wrote a post titled “Political Volatility.” …
There has been an immense amount of material written about additional Quantitative Easing (QE2). Here are some of the works that I have found among the most interesting (although I don’t necessarily agree with what is being said): “Guidelines for Global Economic Policymaking,” (pdf) Gregory Hess, Shadow Open Market Committee, October 12, 2010 Investment Outlook, …
On April 21 I wrote a post titled “Recession Measures – Two Charts.” That post referenced an April 12 CalculatedRisk blog post titled “Recession Measures.” In it, Bill discussed key measures that the NBER uses to determine recoveries, and posted four charts. Here are those charts, updated in his October 29 post. The charts are …
The following commentary and chart is excerpted from the October 14, 2010 ContraryInvestor.com commentary. I find it interesting in a variety of different ways, and it raises a lot of questions with regard to the stock market, consumer confidence, QE1, and QE2… _____ “We have not touched on consumer confidence for a good while, but …
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The October Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of October 25, 2010: – The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch: – The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: …
(this is the fifth in a series of five posts concerning the markets) Lastly, a couple of charts showing the S&P500… First, one that shows the S&P500 on a weekly basis, LOG scale, since 2007. I continue to find this chart interesting for a variety of reasons. It shows that resistance has become support, as …
(this is the fourth in a series of five posts concerning the markets) Starting with my June 2 post I wrote of my expectation for a near-term stock market advance despite what I viewed as highly problematical future conditions. I continue to maintain this view, albeit with the dangers discussed in the post of October …
(this is the third in a series of five posts concerning the markets) The bond market is believed by many to be an asset bubble. I agree with this assessment, and have written a few posts on the subject. I discussed when it may “burst” and other considerations in an October 4 post. The chart …