Tag Archives: S&P500 Earnings

Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of January 18, 2019:

from page 23:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 EPS forecasts

from page 24:

S&P500 historical EPS

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2632.90 as this post is written

S&P500 EPS Forecasts For Years Of 2018 2019 2020

As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag)

The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of January 22, 2019, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts.  For reference, the Year 2014 value is $118.78/share, the Year 2015 value is $117.46, the Year 2016 value is $118.10/share, and the Year 2017 value is $132.00/share:

Year 2018 estimate:

$161.55/share

Year 2019 estimate:

$171.29/share

Year 2020 estimate:

$190.27/share

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2627.61 as this post is written

Standard & Poor’s S&P500 EPS Estimates 2018 2019 – January 17, 2019

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag)

For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of January 17, 2019:

Year 2018 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $156.89/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A

-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $139.50/share

Year 2019 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $169.61/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A

-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $153.33/share

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2670.71 as this post is written

Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of December 14, 2018:

from page 24:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 EPS forecasts

from page 25:

S&P500 annual EPS

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2545.94 as this post is written

S&P500 EPS Forecasts For Years Through 2018-2020

As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag)

The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of December 17, 2018, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts.  For reference, the Year 2014 value is $118.78/share, the Year 2015 value is $117.46, the Year 2016 value is $118.10/share, and the Year 2017 value is $132.00/share:

Year 2018 estimate:

$162.65/share

Year 2019 estimate:

$175.51/share

Year 2020 estimate:

$194.17/share

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Notesummarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2545.94 as this post is written

Standard & Poor’s S&P500 EPS Estimates 2018 2019 – December 13, 2018

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag)

For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of December 13, 2018:

Year 2018 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $157.29/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A

-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $140.32/share

Year 2019 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $173.49/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A

-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $157.47/share

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2599.95 as this post is written

2019 Estimates For S&P500 Earnings & Price Levels

In the December 17, 2018 edition of Barron’s, the cover story is titled “2019 Outlook:  More Sun, Fewer Clouds.”  The subtitle is “U.S. stocks could rally more than 10% in 2019 as the economy grows, earnings rise, and interest rates stay low.”

Included in the story, 10 investment strategists give various forecasts for 2019 including S&P500 profits, S&P500 year-end price targets, GDP growth, and 10-Year Treasury Note Yields.

An excerpt:

Yet as U.S. stocks stumble toward what could be their first yearly loss since 2015, next year is looking rather sunny. So say the 10 market strategists Barron’s consulted this month, all of whom have 2019 targets for the S&P 500 index that are higher than the benchmark’s recent price level of 2600. Based on the group’s mean prediction, the S&P 500 will end next year at 2975, indicating a gain of more than 14%.

The strategists, who mostly hail from investment banks and asset-management firms, offered up individual S&P targets ranging from 2750 to 3100. The stock market is down almost 3% this year, as measured by the S&P 500—a disappointing showing in any year, but especially so after last year’s nearly 20% gain.

To some degree, 2017’s rally discounted this year’s robust profit growth, likely to total over 20%. Could 2018’s downdraft signal next year’s earnings moderation? Our prognosticators expect S&P 500 profits to rise just 5% to 6% in 2019, to $172 per share,partly because companies will be losing the boost from this year’s reduction in federal taxes.

Industry analysts, who typically have loftier forecasts than “top-down” strategists, anticipate per share profit growth of 9% next year.

As seen in the article, the investment strategists expect an average 2019 GDP growth of 2.50%.

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2599.95 as this post is written

Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of November 16, 2018:

from page 21:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 earnings estimates 2018 & 2019

from page 22:

S&P500 annual earnings 2008-2019

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2690.73 as this post is written

S&P500 EPS Forecasts For Years Through 2018, 2019, And 2020

As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag)

The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of November 19, 2018, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts.  For reference, the Year 2014 value is $118.78/share, the Year 2015 value is $117.46, the Year 2016 value is $118.10/share, and the Year 2017 value is $132.00/share:

Year 2018 estimate:

$162.79/share

Year 2019 estimate:

$176.88/share

Year 2020 estimate:

$195.26/share

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2716.85 as this post is written

Standard & Poor’s S&P500 EPS Estimates 2018 2019 – November 15, 2018

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag)

For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of November 15, 2018:

Year 2018 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $157.84/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A

-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $141.56/share

Year 2019 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $175.06/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A

-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $160.17/share

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2736.27 as this post is written