Tag Archives: Stock Market

Building Financial Danger – December 10, 2018 Update

My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts in this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.”  These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematic conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment that endangers the overall financial system.

Also of ongoing immense importance is the existence of various immensely large asset bubbles, a subject of which I have extensively written.  While all of these asset bubbles are wildly pernicious and will have profound adverse future implications, hazards presented by the bond market bubble are especially notable.

Predicting the specific timing and extent of a stock market crash is always difficult, and the immense complexity of today’s economic situation makes such a prediction even more challenging. With that being said, my analyses continue to indicate that a near-term exceedingly large (from an ultra-long term perspective) stock market crash – that would also involve (as seen in 2008) various other markets as well – will occur.

(note: the “next crash” and its aftermath has great significance and implications, as discussed in the post of January 6, 2012 titled “The Next Crash And Its Significance“ and various subsequent posts in the “Economic Depression” category)

As reference, below is a daily chart since 2008 of the S&P500 (through December 7, 2018 with a last price of 2633.08), depicted on a LOG scale, indicating both the 50dma and 200dma as well as price labels:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

S&P500 chart since 2008

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2631.23 as this post is written

Charts Of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980 – December 4, 2018 Update

In the March 9, 2012 post (“Charts of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980“) I highlighted two charts for reference purposes.

Below are those two charts, updated through the latest daily closing price.

The first is a daily chart of the S&P500 (shown in green), as well as five prominent (AAPL, IBM, AMZN, SBUX, CAT) individual stocks, since 2005.  There is a blue vertical line that is very close to the March 6, 2009 low.  As one can see, both the S&P500 performance, as well as many stocks including the five shown, have performed strongly since the March 6, 2009 low:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

S&P500 and prominent stocks

–

This next chart shows, on a monthly LOG basis, the S&P500 since 1980.  I find this chart notable as it provides an interesting long-term perspective on the S&P500′s performance.  The 20, 50, and 200-month moving averages are shown in blue, red, and green lines, respectively:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

S&P500 chart since 1980

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2790.37 as this post is written

Long-Term Price Charts Of Four U.S. Stock Market Indexes

StockCharts.com maintains long-term historical charts of various major stock market indices, interest rates, currencies, commodities, and economic indicators.

As a long-term reference, below are charts depicting various stock market indices for the dates shown.  All charts are depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale.

(click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, from 1900 – November 30, 2018:

DJIA since 1900

–

The Dow Jones Transportation Average, from 1900 – November 30, 2018:

DJTA since 1900

–

The S&P500, from 1925 – November 30, 2018:

S&P500 since 1925

–

The Nasdaq Composite, from 1978 – November 30, 2018:

Nasdaq Composite since 1978

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2760.16 as this post is written

Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of November 16, 2018:

from page 21:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 earnings estimates 2018 & 2019

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from page 22:

S&P500 annual earnings 2008-2019

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2690.73 as this post is written

S&P500 EPS Forecasts For Years Through 2018, 2019, And 2020

As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag)

The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of November 19, 2018, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts.  For reference, the Year 2014 value is $118.78/share, the Year 2015 value is $117.46, the Year 2016 value is $118.10/share, and the Year 2017 value is $132.00/share:

Year 2018 estimate:

$162.79/share

Year 2019 estimate:

$176.88/share

Year 2020 estimate:

$195.26/share

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2716.85 as this post is written

Standard & Poor’s S&P500 EPS Estimates 2018 2019 – November 15, 2018

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag)

For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as November 15, 2018:

Year 2018 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $157.84/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A

-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $141.56/share

Year 2019 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $175.06/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A

-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $160.17/share

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2736.27 as this post is written

Building Financial Danger – November 8, 2018 Update

My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts in this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.”  These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematic conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment that endangers the overall financial system.

Also of ongoing immense importance is the existence of various immensely large asset bubbles, a subject of which I have extensively written.  While all of these asset bubbles are wildly pernicious and will have profound adverse future implications, hazards presented by the bond market bubble are especially notable.

Predicting the specific timing and extent of a stock market crash is always difficult, and the immense complexity of today’s economic situation makes such a prediction even more challenging. With that being said, my analyses continue to indicate that a near-term exceedingly large (from an ultra-long term perspective) stock market crash – that would also involve (as seen in 2008) various other markets as well – will occur.

(note: the “next crash” and its aftermath has great significance and implications, as discussed in the post of January 6, 2012 titled “The Next Crash And Its Significance“ and various subsequent posts in the “Economic Depression” category)

As reference, below is a daily chart since 2008 of the S&P500 (through November 7, 2018 with a last price of 2813.89), depicted on a LOG scale, indicating both the 50dma and 200dma as well as price labels:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

S&P500 price chart since 2008

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2813.89 as this post is written

Stock Market Capitalization To GDP – Through Q3 2018

“Stock market capitalization to GDP” is a notable and important metric regarding stock market valuation.  In February of 2009 I wrote of it in “Does Warren Buffett’s Market Metric Still Apply?”

On the Doug Short site there is an update depicting this “stock market capitalization to GDP” metric.

As seen in the November 2, 2018 post titled “Market Cap to GDP:  An Updated Look at the Buffett Valuation Indicator” two different versions are displayed, varying by the definition of stock market capitalization. (note:  additional explanation is provided in the post.)

For reference purposes, here is the first chart, with the stock market capitalization as defined by the Federal Reserve:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

U.S. Stock Market Capitalization To GDP

–

Here is the second chart, with the stock market capitalization as defined by the Wilshire 5000:

Stock Market Capitalization To GDP

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As one can see in both measures depicted above, “stock market capitalization to GDP” is at notably high levels from a long-term historical perspective.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2731.51 as this post is written

Charts Of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980 – November 1, 2018 Update

In the March 9, 2012 post (“Charts of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980“) I highlighted two charts for reference purposes.

Below are those two charts, updated through the latest daily closing price.

The first is a daily chart of the S&P500 (shown in green), as well as five prominent (AAPL, IBM, AMZN, SBUX, CAT) individual stocks, since 2005.  There is a blue vertical line that is very close to the March 6, 2009 low.  As one can see, both the S&P500 performance, as well as many stocks including the five shown, have performed strongly since the March 6, 2009 low:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

S&P500 and prominent stocks

–

This next chart shows, on a monthly LOG basis, the S&P500 since 1980.  I find this chart notable as it provides an interesting long-term perspective on the S&P500′s performance.  The 20, 50, and 200-month moving averages are shown in blue, red, and green lines, respectively:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

S&P500 monthly chart since 1980

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2734.47 as this post is written

Long-Term Price Charts Of Various U.S. Stock Indexes

StockCharts.com maintains long-term historical charts of various major stock market indices, interest rates, currencies, commodities, and economic indicators.

As a long-term reference, below are charts depicting various stock market indices for the dates shown.  All charts are depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale.

(click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, from 1900 – October 31, 2018:

DJIA chart since 1900

–

The Dow Jones Transportation Average, from 1900 – October 31, 2018:

DJTA chart since 1900

–

The S&P500, from 1925 – October 31, 2018:

S&P500 chart since 1925

–

The Nasdaq Composite, from 1978 – October 31, 2018:

Nasdaq Composite since 1978

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2711.74 as this post is written