Tag Archives: Stock Market

Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of April 13, 2018:

from page 24:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 earnings estimates trends

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from page 25:

S&P500 earnings

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2693.13 as this post is written

S&P500 “Bottom Up” EPS Forecasts Years 2018, 2019, And 2020

As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag)

The following estimates are from Exhibit 23 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of April 19, 2018, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts.  For reference, the Year 2014 value is $118.78/share, the Year 2015 value is $117.46, the Year 2016 value is $118.10/share, and the Year 2017 value is $132.00/share:

Year 2018 estimate:

$158.18/share

Year 2019 estimate:

$174.04/share

Year 2020 estimate:

$190.66/share

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2693.13 as this post is written

Standard & Poor’s S&P500 EPS Estimates 2018 2019 – April 11, 2018

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag)

For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as April 11, 2018:

Year 2018 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $155.88/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A

-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $153.90/share

Year 2019 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $172.06/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A

-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $168.64

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2708.64 as this post is written

Four Charts Of Recent S&P500 Price Volatility – April 9, 2018

This post is an update to past posts regarding stock market volatility.

While I track many different measures of volatility, I find the following charts to be both simple and clear in depicting the recent volatility in the stock market.

Overall, my analyses indicates that there are many reasons for this volatility, and the volatility is highly significant.

First, a one-year daily depiction of the S&P500 through Friday’s (April 6, 2018) close, with a 50-day moving average (MA50) depicted by the blue line:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com)

S&P500 1-year Daily

Second, a three-month daily depiction of the S&P500 through Friday’s (April 6, 2018) close, with a 50-day moving average (MA50) depicted by the blue line:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com)

S&P500 3 month daily

Third, a three-month depiction of the S&P500 in 60-minute intervals through Friday’s (April 6, 2018) close, with a 50-hour moving average (MA50) depicted by the blue line:

S&P500 60-minute chart

Fourth, a one-month depiction of the S&P500 in 10-minute intervals through Friday’s (April 6, 2018) close, with a 50-period moving average (MA50) depicted by the blue line:

S&P500 1 month 10 minute intervals

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2604.47 as this post is written

Building Financial Danger – April 9, 2018 Update

My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts in this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.”  These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematic conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment that endangers the overall financial system.

Also of ongoing immense importance is the existence of various immensely large asset bubbles, a subject of which I have extensively written.  While all of these asset bubbles are wildly pernicious and will have profound adverse future implications, hazards presented by the bond market bubble are especially notable.

Predicting the specific timing and extent of a stock market crash is always difficult, and the immense complexity of today’s economic situation makes such a prediction even more challenging. With that being said, my analyses continue to indicate that a near-term exceedingly large (from an ultra-long term perspective) stock market crash – that would also involve (as seen in 2008) various other markets as well – will occur.

(note: the “next crash” and its aftermath has great significance and implications, as discussed in the post of January 6, 2012 titled “The Next Crash And Its Significance“ and various subsequent posts in the “Economic Depression” category)

As reference, below is a daily chart since 2008 of the S&P500 (through April 6, 2018 with a last price of 2604.47), depicted on a LOG scale, indicating both the 50dma and 200dma as well as price labels:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

S&P500 since 2008

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2604.47 as this post is written

Charts Of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980 – April 3, 2018 Update

In the March 9, 2012 post (“Charts of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980“) I highlighted two charts for reference purposes.

Below are those two charts, updated through the latest daily closing price.

The first is a daily chart of the S&P500 (shown in green), as well as five prominent (AAPL, IBM, AMZN, SBUX, CAT) individual stocks, since 2005.  There is a blue vertical line that is very close to the March 6, 2009 low.  As one can see, both the S&P500 performance, as well as many stocks including the five shown, have performed strongly since the March 6, 2009 low:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

S&P500 and prominent stocks

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This next chart shows, on a monthly LOG basis, the S&P500 since 1980.  I find this chart notable as it provides an interesting long-term perspective on the S&P500′s performance.  The 20, 50, and 200-month moving averages are shown in blue, red, and green lines, respectively:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

S&P500 since 1980

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2581.88 as this post is written

DJIA, DJTA, S&P500, And Nasdaq Long-Term Charts

StockCharts.com maintains long-term historical charts of various major stock market indices, interest rates, currencies, commodities, and economic indicators.

As a long-term reference, below are charts depicting various stock market indices for the dates shown.  All charts are depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale.

(click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, from 1900 – March 29, 2018:

DJIA since 1900

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The Dow Jones Transportation Average, from 1900 – March 29, 2018:

DJTA since 1900

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The S&P500, from 1925 – March 29, 2018:

S&P500 since 1925

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The Nasdaq Composite, from 1978 – March 29, 2018:

Nasdaq Composite since 1978

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2640.87 as this post is written

Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of March 16, 2018:

from page 22:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 EPS estimates trends

–

from page 23:

S&P500 Annual EPS

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2712.92 as this post is written

S&P500 “Bottom Up” EPS Forecasts Years 2017, 2018, 2019

As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag)

The following estimates are from Exhibit 23 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of March 19, 2018, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts.  For reference, the Year 2014 value is $118.78/share, the Year 2015 value is $117.46, and the Year 2016 value is $118.10/share:

Year 2017 estimate:

$132.38/share

Year 2018 estimate:

$158.18/share

Year 2019 estimate:

$173.98/share

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2712.92 as this post is written

Standard & Poor’s S&P500 EPS Estimates 2018 2019 – March 15, 2018

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag)

For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of March 15, 2018:

Year 2018 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $156.45/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A

-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $144.58/share

Year 2019 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $172.72/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A

-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $156.06/share

_____

I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2709.68 as this post is written