Recession Measures – Updated

On April 21 I wrote a post titled “Recession Measures – Two Charts.”

That post referenced an April 12  CalculatedRisk blog post titled “Recession Measures.” In it, Bill discussed key measures that the NBER uses to determine recoveries, and posted four charts.

Here are those charts, updated in his October 29 post.  The charts are constructed in a fashion different than most – in a “percent of peak” fashion.  As defined, “The following graphs are all constructed as a percent of the peak in each indicator. This shows when the indicator has bottomed – and when the indicator has returned to the level of the previous peak. If the indicator is at a new peak, the value is 100%.”  Periods of recession, as defined by the NBER, are shown as blue bars.

Here are the four charts: (click on images to enlarge)

Real Gross Domestic Product, still 0.8% below the pre-recession peak:

Real Personal Income Less Transfer Payments, still 5.5% below the pre-recession peak:

Industrial Production, still 7.5% below the pre-recession peak:

Payroll Employment, still 5.6% below the pre-recession peak:


A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here

SPX at 1183.26 as this post is written