America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
“Stock market capitalization to GDP” is a notable and important metric regarding stock market valuation. In February of 2009 I wrote of it in “Does Warren Buffett’s Market Metric Still Apply?” Doug Short has recently published a post depicting this “stock market capitalization to GDP” metric. As seen in his December 11, 2014 post titled …
The December 2014 Livingston Survey (pdf) published on December 12, 2014 contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast. It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: Dec. 31, 2014 2065 June 30, 2015 2125 Dec. 31, 2015 2160.60 June 30, 2016 2300 These figures represent the median value across the …
In the December 15, 2014 edition of Barron’s, the cover story is titled “Outlook 2015: Stick With the Bull.” Included in the story, 10 investment strategists give various forecasts for 2015 including S&P500 profits, S&P500 year-end price targets, GDP growth, and 10-Year Treasury Note Yields. A couple of excerpts: The strategists’ 2015 targets for the …
The December Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on December 11, 2014. The headline is “Economists See Stronger Growth in 2015.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. Two excerpts: According to the panel …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s …
In the last post (“Total Household Net Worth As A Percent Of GDP 3Q 2014“) I displayed a long-term chart depicting Total Household Net Worth as a percentage of GDP. For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1949:Q4 to 2014:Q3). The last value (as of December 11, 2014) …
The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk blog post of December 11, 2014 titled “Fed’s Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth ‘dipped slightly’ in Q3.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP. The underlying data is from the Federal Reserve’s Z.1 report, “Financial Accounts of the United States“: (click on chart to enlarge image) As …
Doug Short had a notable post on December 8, 2014 titled “Light Vehicle Sales Per Capita – A Better Look at the Long-Term Trend.” Below is a chart depicting the long-term trend of light vehicle sales per capita: It is interesting to compare the chart above to that below, which is aggregate light vehicle sales …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the December 4, 2014 update (reflecting data through November 28) is -1.137. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
The December NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, December 9, 2014. The headline of the Small Business Economic Trends report is “NFIB: Small Business Optimism Perks Up In December. ” The Index of Small Business Optimism increased 2.0 points in November to 98.1. Here are some excerpts from that I find particularly notable …