America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI Growth is …
The October Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published today, October 13, 2011. The headline is “U.S. Incomes Seen Stagnant Through 2021 .” I found various aspects of the survey to be interesting, including the following excerpts: Americans’ incomes have dropped since 2000 and they aren’t expected to make up the lost ground before 2021, …
This post is an update to the post of October 6 (“A Chart Of Recent S&P500 Price Volatility“) While I track many different measures of volatility, I find the following chart to be both simple and clear in depicting the recent outsized volatility in the stock market. This chart depicts the S&P500 in 10 minute …
Yesterday the New York Times had an article titled “Recession Officially Over, U.S. Incomes Kept Falling.” It discusses trends in real median family income over the last few years. While the entire article is worthwhile, here are a few excerpts I found most notable: In a grim sign of the enduring nature of the economic …
In my post of September 29 (“Near-Term Direction Of The Stock Market – Update“) I had reiterated my view that the S&P500 would fall below the August 9 low of 1101.54. It did fall below that 1101.54 level, reaching a bottom of 1074.77 on October 4. The question now becomes whether that 1074.77 was a …
Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective. Both charts are from the St. …
As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment. However, even if one chooses to look at the …
As seen in the September 15 post (“September 13 Gallup Poll On Upper-Income Americans’ Economic Confidence“) lately there appears to be a significant lessening of economic confidence among “upper-income” Americans; and, as seen in the poll, “This is the first month since the financial crisis of late 2008 and early 2009 that upper-income Americans are …
On September 29 the Business Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Survey was released for the 3rd quarter. The September Duke/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey (pdf) was released on September 13. Both contain a variety of statistics regarding how executives view business and economic conditions. In the CEO survey, of particular interest is the CEO Economic Outlook Index, which decreased …
The following chart depicts the S&P500 in 10 minute intervals from July 20 through yesterday’s close. As such, it encompasses the progression of the stock market since its July 25 daily high of 1344.32: (click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com) The blue line is a 50-period moving average. What I find notable …