America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through November, updated on December 23, 2014. This value is 242,275 ($ Millions) : (click on charts to enlarge …
Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood. While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The December 2014 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of December 22, 2014: – The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index): As of December 19, 2014 (incorporating data through …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s …
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. Doug Short, in his blog post of December 19, 2014, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Business Conditions …
On Wednesday, December 17, 2014 Janet Yellen gave her scheduled December press conference. (video and related materials) Below are Janet Yellen’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript. These comments are excerpted from the “Transcript of Chairman Yellen’s Press Conference“(preliminary)(pdf) …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of …
As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 12 of “The Director’s Report” (pdf) of December 18, 2014, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts: Year 2014 estimate: $117.22/share …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of December 11, 2014: Year 2014 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $116.94/share …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the December 11, 2014 update (reflecting data through December 5) is -1.075. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …