America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 13, 2016 update (reflecting data through October 7) is -1.177. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
Throughout this site there are many charts of economic indicators. At this time, the readings of these various indicators are especially notable. While many are still indicating economic growth, others depict (or imply) various degrees of economic weakness. Below are a small sampling of charts that depict greater degrees of weakness and/or other worrisome trends, …
For reference purposes, below is a 1-year chart of the VIX through Friday’s (October 14, 2016) close, which had a closing value of 16.12. Price labels as well as the 50- and 200-day moving averages are also shown: (click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author) – …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 13, 2016 update (reflecting data through October 7) is -1.177. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
The October 2016 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 13, 2016. The headline is “Economists Believe a Recession Is Likely Within Next Four Years.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. Two …
I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 88 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable. These …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
On October 4, 2016, The Conference Board released the 3rd Quarter Measure Of CEO Confidence. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 50, down from 52 in the second quarter. [note: a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses] Notable excerpts from this October 4 Press Release include: CEOs’ appraisal …
My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts in this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.” These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematic conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment …