America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective. Both charts are from the St. …
As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment. However, even if one chooses to look at the …
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …
“Stock market capitalization to GDP” is a notable and important metric regarding stock market valuation. In February of 2009 I wrote of it in “Does Warren Buffett’s Market Metric Still Apply?” Doug Short has recently published a post depicting this “stock market capitalization to GDP” metric. As seen in his October 6, 2016 post titled …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the September 29, 2016 update (reflecting data through September 23) is -1.045. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently published the October 2016 “World Economic Outlook.” (pdf) The subtitle is “Subdued Demand.” One area of the report is Figure 1.20 on page 30. While I do not agree with the current readings of the two measures presented – Probability of Recession and the Probability of Deflation – I …
On October 4, 2016 Gallup released the poll results titled “U.S. Economic Confidence Changed Little in September.” Notable excerpts include: The modest improvement in Americans’ economic confidence first evident after the Democratic National Convention continued for a second consecutive month. Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index averaged -10 for the month of September, in line with …
For reference purposes, below are two charts of the VIX from year 2000 through Monday’s (October 3, 2016) close, which had a closing value of 13.57. Here is the VIX Weekly chart, depicted on a LOG scale, with the 13- and 34-week moving averages, seen in the cyan and red lines, respectively: (click on chart …
In the March 9, 2012 post (“Charts of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980“) I highlighted two charts for reference purposes. Below are those two charts, updated through the latest daily closing price. The first is a daily chart of the S&P500 (shown in green), as well as five prominent (AAPL, IBM, …