On October 4, 2016, The Conference Board released the 3rd Quarter Measure Of CEO Confidence. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 50, down from 52 in the second quarter. [note: a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses]
Notable excerpts from this October 4 Press Release include:
CEOs’ appraisal of current economic conditions was less optimistic, with 17 percent saying conditions are better compared to six months ago, down from 21 percent last quarter. Business leaders’ assessment of current conditions in their own industries also moderated, with 21 percent stating conditions in their own industries have improved versus 30 percent in the second quarter.
CEOs’ short-term outlook for the U.S. economy held steady, with 25 percent expecting better economic conditions over the next six months, about the same as last quarter. The outlook for their own industries, however, was less favorable, with about 23 percent of CEOs anticipating an improvement over the next six months, down from almost 33 percent in the second quarter.
The Business Roundtable last month also released its CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 3rd Quarter of 2016. Notable excerpts from the September 12, 2016 release, titled “CEO Economic Outlook Suggests Continued Concerns Over Flat Economy“ (pdf):
The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index — a composite of CEO projections for sales and plans for capital spending and hiring over the next six months — declined by 3.9 points, from 73.5 in the second quarter to 69.6 in the third quarter. The Index remains below its historical average of 79.6. It remains well above 50, indicating continued economic expansion — although well below the full potential of U.S. economic growth.
According to the Business Roundtable third quarter 2016 CEO Economic Outlook Survey, CEO expectations for sales over the next six months declined by 9.3 points, while expectations for hiring declined by 3.4 points from last quarter. CEO plans for capital expenditures ticked up slightly by 0.8 point relative to last quarter.
In their fourth estimate of real GDP growth for 2016, CEOs expect 2.2 percent growth, a slight tick upward from their 2.1 percent estimate in the second quarter of 2016 and roughly in line with other well-regarded estimates.
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2153.74 as this post is written