Tag Archives: disturbing charts

Disturbing Charts (Update 30)

I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 106 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable.

These charts raise a lot of questions. As well, they highlight the “atypical” nature of our economic situation from a long-term historical perspective.

All of these charts are from the Federal Reserve, and represent the most recently updated data.

(click on charts to enlarge images)

Housing starts (last updated March 16, 2018):

US. Bureau of the Census, Housing Starts: Total: New Privately Owned Housing Units Started [HOUST], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/HOUST/, April 13, 2018.

–

The Federal Deficit (last updated March 27, 2018):

US. Office of Management and Budget, Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] [FYFSD], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FYFSD/, April 13, 2018.

–

Federal Net Outlays (last updated March 27, 2018):

US. Office of Management and Budget, Federal Net Outlays [FYONET], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FYONET/, April 13, 2018.

–

State & Local Personal Income Tax Receipts (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated March 28, 2018):

US. Bureau of Economic Analysis, State and local government current tax receipts: Personal current taxes: Income taxes [ASLPITAX], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ASLPITAX/, April 13, 2018.

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Total Loans and Leases of Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated April 6, 2018):

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Loans and Leases in Bank Credit, All Commercial Banks [TOTLL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TOTLL/, April 13, 2018.

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Bank Credit – All Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated April 6, 2018):

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Bank Credit of All Commercial Banks [TOTBKCR], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TOTBKCR/, April 13, 2018.

–

M1 Money Multiplier (last updated April 5, 2018):

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, M1 Money Multiplier [MULT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MULT/, April 13, 2018.

–

Median Duration of Unemployment (last updated April 6, 2018):

US. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Median Duration of Unemployment [UEMPMED], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMPMED/, April 13, 2018.

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Labor Force Participation Rate (last updated April 6, 2018):

US. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate [CIVPART], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CIVPART/, April 13, 2018.

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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) 3-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3)(last updated March 26, 2018):

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CFNAIMA3/, April 13, 2018.

–

I will continue to update these charts on an intermittent basis as they deserve close monitoring…

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2656.30 as this post is written

Disturbing Charts (Update 29)

I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 103 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable.

These charts raise a lot of questions. As well, they highlight the “atypical” nature of our economic situation from a long-term historical perspective.

All of these charts are from the Federal Reserve, and represent the most recently updated data.

(click on charts to enlarge images)

Housing starts (last updated December 19, 2017):

–

The Federal Deficit (last updated October 20, 2017):

–

Federal Net Outlays (last updated October 20, 2017):

US. Office of Management and Budget, Federal Net Outlays [FYONET], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FYONET/, January 16, 2018.

–

State & Local Personal Income Tax Receipts (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated October 27, 2017):

–

Total Loans and Leases of Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated January 5, 2018):

–

Bank Credit – All Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated January 5, 2018):

–

M1 Money Multiplier (last updated January 11, 2018):

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, M1 Money Multiplier [MULT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MULT/, January 16, 2018.

–

Median Duration of Unemployment (last updated January 5, 2018):

–

Labor Force Participation Rate (last updated January 5, 2018):

–

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) 3-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3)(last updated December 21, 2017):

–

I will continue to update these charts on an intermittent basis as they deserve close monitoring…

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2776.42 as this post is written

Disturbing Charts (Update 28)

I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 100 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable.

These charts raise a lot of questions. As well, they highlight the “atypical” nature of our economic situation from a long-term historical perspective.

All of these charts are from the Federal Reserve, and represent the most recently updated data.

(click on charts to enlarge images)

Housing starts (last updated 9-19-17):

–

The Federal Deficit (last updated 8-8-17):

–

Federal Net Outlays (last updated 8-8-17):

US. Office of Management and Budget, Federal Net Outlays [FYONET], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FYONET/, October 14, 2017.

–

State & Local Personal Income Tax Receipts (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 7-28-17):

–

Total Loans and Leases of Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 10-13-17):

–

Bank Credit – All Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 10-13-17):

–

M1 Money Multiplier (last updated 10-5-17):

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, M1 Money Multiplier [MULT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MULT/, October 14, 2017.

–

Median Duration of Unemployment (last updated 10-6-17):

–

Labor Force Participation Rate (last updated 10-6-17):

–

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) 3-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3)(last updated 9-25-17):

–

I will continue to update these charts on an intermittent basis as they deserve close monitoring…

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2553.17 as this post is written

Disturbing Charts (Update 27)

I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 97 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable.

These charts raise a lot of questions. As well, they highlight the “atypical” nature of our economic situation from a long-term historical perspective.

All of these charts are from the Federal Reserve, and represent the most recently updated data.

(click on charts to enlarge images)

Housing starts (last updated 6-19-17):

–

The Federal Deficit (last updated 1-9-17):

US. Office of Management and Budget, Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] [FYFSD], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FYFSD/, July 12, 2017.

–

Federal Net Outlays (last updated 1-9-17):

US. Office of Management and Budget, Federal Net Outlays [FYONET], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FYONET/, July 12, 2017.

–

State & Local Personal Income Tax Receipts (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 3-30-17):

–

Total Loans and Leases of Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 7-7-17):

–

Bank Credit – All Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 7-7-17):

–

M1 Money Multiplier (last updated 6-29-17):

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, M1 Money Multiplier [MULT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MULT/, July 12, 2017.

–

Median Duration of Unemployment (last updated 7-7-17):

US. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Median Duration of Unemployment [UEMPMED], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMPMED/, July 12, 2017.

–

Labor Force Participation Rate (last updated 7-7-17):

–

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) 3-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3)(last updated 6-26-17):

–

I will continue to update these charts on an intermittent basis as they deserve close monitoring…

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2443.25 as this post is written

Disturbing Charts (Update 26)

I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 94 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable.

These charts raise a lot of questions. As well, they highlight the “atypical” nature of our economic situation from a long-term historical perspective.

All of these charts are from the Federal Reserve, and represent the most recently updated data.

(click on charts to enlarge images)

Housing starts (last updated 3-16-17):

–

The Federal Deficit (last updated 1-9-17):

–

Federal Net Outlays (last updated 1-9-17):

US. Office of Management and Budget, Federal Net Outlays [FYONET], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FYONET/, April 17, 2017.

–

State & Local Personal Income Tax Receipts (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 3-30-17):

–

Total Loans and Leases of Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 4-14-17):

–

Bank Credit – All Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 4-14-17):

–

M1 Money Multiplier (last updated 4-6-17):

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, M1 Money Multiplier [MULT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MULT/, April 17, 2017.

–

Median Duration of Unemployment (last updated 4-7-17):

–

Labor Force Participation Rate (last updated 4-7-17):

–

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) 3-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3)(last updated 3-20-17):

–

I will continue to update these charts on an intermittent basis as they deserve close monitoring…

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2349.01 as this post is written

Disturbing Charts (Update 25)

I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 91 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable.

These charts raise a lot of questions. As well, they highlight the “atypical” nature of our economic situation from a long-term historical perspective.

All of these charts are from the Federal Reserve, and represent the most recently updated data.

(click on charts to enlarge images)

Housing starts (last updated 12-16-16):

–

The Federal Deficit (last updated 1-9-17):

–

Federal Net Outlays (last updated 1-9-17):

US. Office of Management and Budget, Federal Net Outlays [FYONET], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FYONET/, January 16, 2017.

–

State & Local Personal Income Tax Receipts (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 7-29-16):

–

Total Loans and Leases of Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 1-13-17):

–

Bank Credit – All Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 1-13-17):

–

M1 Money Multiplier (last updated 1-12-17):

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, M1 Money Multiplier [MULT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MULT/, January 16, 2017.

–

Median Duration of Unemployment (last updated 1-6-17):

–

Labor Force Participation Rate (last updated 1-6-17):

–

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) 3-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3)(last updated 12-22-16):

–

I will continue to update these charts on an intermittent basis as they deserve close monitoring…

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2274.64 as this post is written

Disturbing Charts (Update 24)

I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 88 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable.

These charts raise a lot of questions. As well, they highlight the “atypical” nature of our economic situation from a long-term historical perspective.

All of these charts are from the Federal Reserve, and represent the most recently updated data.

(click on charts to enlarge images)

Housing starts (last updated 9-20-16):

–

The Federal Deficit (last updated 3-14-16):

–

Federal Net Outlays (last updated 3-14-16):

US. Office of Management and Budget, Federal Net Outlays [FYONET], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FYONET/, October 12, 2016.

–

State & Local Personal Income Tax Receipts (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 7-29-16):

–

Total Loans and Leases of Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 10-7-16):

–

Bank Credit – All Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 10-7-16):

–

M1 Money Multiplier (last updated 10-6-16):

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, M1 Money Multiplier [MULT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MULT/, October 12, 2016.

–

Median Duration of Unemployment (last updated 10-7-16):

–

Labor Force Participation Rate (last updated 10-7-16):

–

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) 3-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3)(last updated 9-22-16):

–

I will continue to update these charts on an intermittent basis as they deserve close monitoring…

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2139.17 as this post is written

Disturbing Charts (Update 23)

I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 85 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable.

These charts raise a lot of questions. As well, they highlight the “atypical” nature of our economic situation from a long-term historical perspective.

All of these charts are from the Federal Reserve, and represent the most recently updated data.

(click on charts to enlarge images)

Housing starts (last updated 6-17-16):

–

The Federal Deficit (last updated 3-14-16):

US. Office of Management and Budget, Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] [FYFSD], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FYFSD/, July 12, 2016.

–

Federal Net Outlays (last updated 3-14-16):

US. Office of Management and Budget, Federal Net Outlays [FYONET], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FYONET/, July 12, 2016.

–

State & Local Personal Income Tax Receipts (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 3-25-16):

–

Total Loans and Leases of Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 7-8-16):

–

Bank Credit – All Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 7-8-16):

–

M1 Money Multiplier (last updated 6-30-16):

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, M1 Money Multiplier [MULT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MULT/, July 12, 2016.

–

Median Duration of Unemployment (last updated 7-8-16):

US. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Median Duration of Unemployment [UEMPMED], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMPMED/, July 12, 2016.

–

Labor Force Participation Rate (last updated 7-8-16):

–

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) 3-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3)(last updated 6-23-16):

–

I will continue to update these charts on an intermittent basis as they deserve close monitoring…

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2152.14 as this post is written

Disturbing Charts (Update 22)

I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 82 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable.

These charts raise a lot of questions. As well, they highlight the “atypical” nature of our economic situation from a long-term historical perspective.

All of these charts are from the Federal Reserve, and represent the most recently updated data.

(click on charts to enlarge images)

Housing starts (last updated 3-16-16):

US. Bureau of the Census, Housing Starts: Total: New Privately Owned Housing Units Started[HOUST], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/HOUST/, April 13, 2016.

–

The Federal Deficit (last updated 3-14-16):

–

Federal Net Outlays (last updated 3-14-16):

US. Office of Management and Budget, Federal Net Outlays [FYONET], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FYONET/, April 13, 2016.

–

State & Local Personal Income Tax Receipts (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 3-25-16):

–

Total Loans and Leases of Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 4-8-16):

–

Bank Credit – All Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 4-8-16):

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Bank Credit of All Commercial Banks[TOTBKCR], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TOTBKCR/, April 13, 2016.

–

M1 Money Multiplier (last updated 4-7-16):

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, M1 Money Multiplier [MULT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MULT/, April 13, 2016.

–

Median Duration of Unemployment (last updated 4-1-16):

–

Labor Force Participation Rate (last updated 4-1-16):

–

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) 3-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3)(last updated 3-21-16):

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average[CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CFNAIMA3/, April 13, 2016.

–

I will continue to update these charts on an intermittent basis as they deserve close monitoring…

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2082.42 as this post is written

Disturbing Charts (Update 21)

I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 79 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable.

These charts raise a lot of questions. As well, they highlight the “atypical” nature of our economic situation from a long-term historical perspective.

All of these charts are from the Federal Reserve, and represent the most recently updated data.

(click on charts to enlarge images)

Housing starts (last updated 12-16-15):

US. Bureau of the Census, Housing Starts: Total: New Privately Owned Housing Units Started[HOUST], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/HOUST/, January 13, 2016.

–

The Federal Deficit (last updated 10-19-15):

–

Federal Net Outlays (last updated 10-19-15):

US. Office of Management and Budget, Federal Net Outlays [FYONET], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FYONET/, January 13, 2016.

–

State & Local Personal Income Tax Receipts (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 7-30-15):

–

Total Loans and Leases of Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 1-11-16):

–

Bank Credit – All Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 1-11-16):

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Bank Credit of All Commercial Banks[TOTBKCR], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TOTBKCR/, January 13, 2016.

–

M1 Money Multiplier (last updated 12-31-15):

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, M1 Money Multiplier [MULT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MULT/, January 13, 2016.

–

Median Duration of Unemployment (last updated 1-8-16):

–

Labor Force Participation Rate (last updated 1-8-16):

–

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) 3-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3)(last updated 12-21-15):

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average[CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CFNAIMA3/, January 13, 2016.

–

I will continue to update these charts on an intermittent basis as they deserve close monitoring…

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1890.28 as this post is written

EconomicGreenfield

America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas

Tag Archives: disturbing charts

Disturbing Charts (Update 30)

Disturbing Charts (Update 29)

Disturbing Charts (Update 28)

Disturbing Charts (Update 27)

Disturbing Charts (Update 26)

Disturbing Charts (Update 25)

Disturbing Charts (Update 24)

Disturbing Charts (Update 23)

Disturbing Charts (Update 22)

Disturbing Charts (Update 21)