The October 2016 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 13, 2016. The headline is “Economists Believe a Recession Is Likely Within Next Four Years.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
The current expansion began in June 2009, and has now continued for 88 months, making it the fourth-longest period of growth in records stretching to 1854.
The survey of 59 academic, business and financial economists was conducted from Oct. 7 to Oct. 11.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 20.24%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 55%. For reference, the average response in September’s survey was 20.25%.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2016: 1.8%
full-year 2017: 2.2%
full-year 2018: 2.0%
December 2016: 4.8%
December 2017: 4.7%
December 2018: 4.7%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2016: 1.81%
December 2017: 2.30%
December 2018: 2.69%
December 2016: 1.7%
December 2017: 2.2%
December 2018: 2.2%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2016: $49.74
for 12/31/2017: $54.03
for 12/31/2018: $56.24
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2132.55 as post is written