America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Here is a story from yesterday on comments by Joseph Stiglitz about his views on 2010 economic performance: http://www.cnbc.com/id/34507080 From the article: “Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz warned there’s a “significant” chance the U.S. economy will contract in the second half of next year…” I find Stiglitz’s view significant because it is in marked contrast to that of the …
Tommorrow’s Barron’s cover story has forecasts provided by 12 strategists and investment managers. I would like to highlight their S&P500 earnings forecasts for 2010. As seen on page 28, the average of the 12 stated forecasts is $75.75. From what I have seen, this $75 level is very common among forecasters, and as such seems like the predominant forecast for …
I would like to briefly comment on Ben Bernanke’s December 7 speech, that can be found at this link: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20091207a.htm Here is one excerpt that I found notable: “Economic forecasts are subject to great uncertainty, but my best guess at this point is that we will continue to see modest economic growth next year–sufficient to …
Here is a link to the latest (November) WSJ Economic Forecast Survey: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125797275784744057.html There doesn’t appear to be any major changes in expectations among the surveyed economists. As the survey states, “The economists expect gross domestic product to expand around 3% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate through 2010, slightly slower than the 3.5% recorded in the …
The below link discusses a new economic forecast index called the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index: http://knowledgetoday.wharton.upenn.edu/2009/10/the-economy-right-now.html Here is a chart of the index that can be found on the Philadelphia Fed website at this link: http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/business-conditions-index/ From the above Philadelphia Fed link: “The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti business conditions index is designed to track real business conditions at high …
Here is testimony by Christina Romer before the Joint Economic Committee on October 22, 2009: http://jec.senate.gov/index.cfm?FuseAction=Hearings.HearingsCalendar&ContentRecord_id=6dd4483c-5056-8059-7664-1856ea0ee4e6 Readers of this blog will know that I don’t agree with many of the statements and forecasts found in this testimony. However, I am calling attention to it because it has several notable passages, as well as forecasts. Although we have heard …
Here are a couple of links to a recent Warren Buffett interview. I have not been able to pinpoint a date, but apparently the interview was from a month or so ago: The video link: http://pymnts.com/warren-buffett-on-what-s-next-in-the-payments-industry-2 The transcript link: http://pymnts.com/transcript-warren-buffett-on-what-s-next-in-the-payments-industry/ The first part of the interview deals with his views on the economy. Although I …
Here is another economic forecast survey, this time from NABE: http://www.cnbc.com/id/33278490/ From the article: “The survey of 44 professional forecasters released by the National Association of Business Economists (NABE) found that 80 percent of the respondents believed the economy was growing again after four straight quarters of declines.” The survey’s results for 2010 GDP and …
I would like to highlight a couple of facets of the latest Wall Street Journal Forecasting Survey: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125494927938671631.html?mod=djemalertNEWS As stated, “The Wall Street Journal surveys a group of 52 economists throughout the year. Broad surveys on more than 10 major economic indicators are conducted every month. Once a year, economists are ranked on how well …
I would like to do a quick update of some indicators that are supposed to predict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index) was at 127.1 in the week to September 25. Here is Press Release: http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/1582/ Fortune’s Big Picture Index is at 14.25 as of October …