On October 3, 2017 Gallup released the poll results titled “Confidence in U.S. Economy Dips to +4 in September.”
Notable excerpts include:
Americans’ confidence in the economy declined slightly in September, with Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index slipping to +4 from August’s reading of +6.
Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index is the average of two components: how Americans rate current economic conditions and whether they believe the economy is improving or getting worse. The index has a theoretical maximum of +100 if all Americans were to say the economy is doing well and improving and a theoretical minimum of -100 if all were to say the economy is doing poorly and getting worse.
The current conditions component measured +13 in September, the result of 34% describing the economy as “excellent” or “good” minus the 21% describing the economy as “poor.” September’s current conditions score essentially ties the +14 observed in August — the highest monthly reading in the 2008-2017 Gallup Daily tracking trend.
However, economic expectations dimmed slightly in September. Over the course of the month, half of Americans said economic conditions were “getting worse,” while 44% said conditions were “getting better,” resulting in an economic outlook score of -6. This is down four points from August’s -2 outlook score — but, as was the case with the overall metric, was no different from how this component performed in the final half of August. In the first half of August, by contrast, the economic outlook component was neutral, meaning it averaged a score of 0.
Here is an accompanying chart of the two components of the Gallup Economic Confidence Index, discussed above:
Here is an accompanying chart of the Gallup Economic Confidence Index:
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2531.87 as this post is written