The Philadelphia Fed Fourth Quarter 2010 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on November 15. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures.
The survey shows, among many measures, the following expectations, which are close to other economic survey results featured on this blog:
full-year 2010 : 2.7%
full-year 2011 : 2.5%
full-year 2012 : 2.9%
full-year 2013 : 3.0%
Unemployment Rate: (annual average level)
for 2010: 9.7%
for 2011: 9.3%
for 2012: 8.7%
for 2013: 7.9%
As for “the chance of a contraction in real GDP in any of the next four quarters,” estimates range from 11-13.8% for each of the quarters through Q4 2011.
As well, there are also a variety of time frames shown with the expected inflation of each. Inflation is measured in Headline and Core CPI and Headline and Core PCE. Over all time frames expectations are shown to be in (or very close to) the 1-2% range.
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here
SPX at 1178.34 as this post is written