America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The June 14-June 21 2010 Bloomberg BusinessWeek had a cover story titled “Time to Slip Into Something Less Comfortable?” The subtitle reads: “The bearish forecasters who rose to fame in the market crash of 2008 have, for the most part, not surrendered their pessimism. Their moment could be coming back around.” While I don’t necessarily …
I found Ben Bernanke’s comments on the economic outlook, given last Wednesday (June 9), to be interesting. Here are some excerpts, as published in this Wall Street Journal article of June 10: “Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke offered guarded reassurances about the economy in testimony to the House Budget Committee Wednesday, saying a new recession …
I found The June Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was interesting on a couple of fronts. First, as stated in the article, “The economists in the survey put the odds of a double-dip recession at 19%.” Second, as seen in the detail of this survey, the survey now includes more forecast information for December …
On June 1 The Wall Street Journal had an article titled “Analysts Cheer For Recovery.” From the article: “Current estimates put the S&P 500 on track for earnings per share of $85.26 this year, according to Thomson Reuters, a return to 2007 levels. Analysts’ $96.61 forecast for 2011 earnings would mark a record that surpasses …
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The May Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) (pdf) updated as of May 24, 2010: The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch: The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: An …
The May Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey focuses on the economic problems in Europe and the odds of The Federal Reserve increasing interest rates. As seen in the detail of this survey, the current average forecasts for December 31, 2010 among economists polled include the following: Ten-Year Treasury Yield: 4.16% CPI: 1.8% Unemployment: 9.3% …
Here are various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The April Chicago Fed National Activity Index (pdf) (last updated 4/29/10) The Consumer Metrics Institute’s Contraction Watch: The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: an excerpt dated 4/29/10: “The April update of …
On April 12 Robert J. Gordon, a member of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, wrote of the reasons why he believes that “It is obvious that the recession is over.” There are many noteworthy items in his article, and I could extensively comment on his arguments. Needless to say I disagree, fully or partially, …
The April Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey contained a couple items of interest. First, an interesting quote in the survey: “”The Fed dropped the funds rate to near zero due to a fast and sharp decline in economy. Having avoided a 1930s-type scenario, is a 0% policy rate still justified?” said Joseph Carson of …
Pursuant to the last post, here are some charts from The Consumer Metrics Institute that I find noteworthy: As I indicated in the last post, I plan on including updated information from The Consumer Metrics Institute in my frequent updates of economic indicators… back to <home> SPX at 1170.51 as this post is written