The June 2011 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The June Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published June 13, 2011.  The headline is “Sluggish Hiring Seen as a Threat to Recovery.”

I found various aspects of the survey to be interesting.  One was “On average, the economists put the chances of a double-dip recession in the next year at just 16%, but the recovery continues to face risks.”

Also, I found a few questions in the detail (spreadsheet) regarding the impact of QE2 to be notable. One question was (with the percentage of respondents indicated):

The Fed’s $600 billion in Treasury purchases were:

Successful (the benefits exceeded the costs)    59%

Unsuccessful (the costs exceeded the benefits)  41%

Another question was:

The primary impact of the Fed’s $600 billion bond-buying program was to:

Push up asset prices and stimulate financial conditions and economic growth  46%

Push up commodities prices and cause unhelpful inflation worries  25%

It didn’t have much impact on anything  19%

Prevent a dangerous bout of deflation      10%

As well, there were a couple of more questions pertaining as to whether the Federal Reserve will institute another round of QE prior to year-end.

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:


full-year 2011 : 2.7%

full-year 2012:  3.0%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2011: 8.6%

December 2012: 7.9%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2011: 3.63%

December 2012: 4.33%


December 2011:  3.0%

December 2012:  2.4%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 6/30/2011: $100.20

for 12/31/2011: $96.44

(note: I comment upon this survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)


I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.


The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1271.83 as this post is written