The June Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published June 13, 2011. The headline is “Sluggish Hiring Seen as a Threat to Recovery.”
I found various aspects of the survey to be interesting. One was “On average, the economists put the chances of a double-dip recession in the next year at just 16%, but the recovery continues to face risks.”
Also, I found a few questions in the detail (spreadsheet) regarding the impact of QE2 to be notable. One question was (with the percentage of respondents indicated):
The Fed’s $600 billion in Treasury purchases were:
Successful (the benefits exceeded the costs) 59%
Unsuccessful (the costs exceeded the benefits) 41%
Another question was:
The primary impact of the Fed’s $600 billion bond-buying program was to:
Push up asset prices and stimulate financial conditions and economic growth 46%
Push up commodities prices and cause unhelpful inflation worries 25%
It didn’t have much impact on anything 19%
Prevent a dangerous bout of deflation 10%
As well, there were a couple of more questions pertaining as to whether the Federal Reserve will institute another round of QE prior to year-end.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
GDP:
full-year 2011 : 2.7%
full-year 2012: 3.0%
Unemployment Rate:
December 2011: 8.6%
December 2012: 7.9%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2011: 3.63%
December 2012: 4.33%
CPI:
December 2011: 3.0%
December 2012: 2.4%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 6/30/2011: $100.20
for 12/31/2011: $96.44
(note: I comment upon this survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1271.83 as this post is written