The May 2011 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The May Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published May 16, 2011.  The headline is “Economists in Survey Discount Inflation.”

Most of the article discusses inflation expectations, although raising the debt ceiling and other topics are touched upon as well.

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:


full-year 2011 : 2.9%

full-year 2012:  3.2%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2011: 8.4%

December 2012: 7.7%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2011: 3.87%

December 2012: 4.47%


December 2011:  3.0%

December 2012:  2.3%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 6/30/2011: $101.39

for 12/31/2011: $97.78

(note: I comment upon this survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)


I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.


The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1329.47 as this post is written