The following is from the Minutes of The Federal Open Market Committee of April 26-27, 2011, the Summary of Economic Projections. As stated:
“In conjunction with the April 26-27, 2011, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the members of the Board of Governors and the presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks, all of whom participate in the deliberations of the FOMC, submitted projections for growth of real output, the unemployment rate, and inflation for the years 2011 to 2013 and over the longer run. The projections were based on information available through the end of the meeting and on each participant’s assumptions about factors likely to affect economic outcomes, including his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy.”
Among the commentary and detail is this summary table:
Table 1. Economic projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, April 2011
Percent
| Variable | Central tendency1 | Range2 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | Longer run | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | Longer run | |
| Change in real GDP | 3.1 to 3.3 | 3.5 to 4.2 | 3.5 to 4.3 | 2.5 to 2.8 | 2.9 to 3.7 | 2.9 to 4.4 | 3.0 to 5.0 | 2.4 to 3.0 |
| January projection | 3.4 to 3.9 | 3.5 to 4.4 | 3.7 to 4.6 | 2.5 to 2.8 | 3.2 to 4.2 | 3.4 to 4.5 | 3.0 to 5.0 | 2.4 to 3.0 |
| Unemployment rate | 8.4 to 8.7 | 7.6 to 7.9 | 6.8 to 7.2 | 5.2 to 5.6 | 8.1 to 8.9 | 7.1 to 8.4 | 6.0 to 8.4 | 5.0 to 6.0 |
| January projection | 8.8 to 9.0 | 7.6 to 8.1 | 6.8 to 7.2 | 5.0 to 6.0 | 8.4 to 9.0 | 7.2 to 8.4 | 6.0 to 7.9 | 5.0 to 6.2 |
| PCE inflation | 2.1 to 2.8 | 1.2 to 2.0 | 1.4 to 2.0 | 1.7 to 2.0 | 2.0 to 3.6 | 1.0 to 2.8 | 1.2 to 2.5 | 1.5 to 2.0 |
| January projection | 1.3 to 1.7 | 1.0 to 1.9 | 1.2 to 2.0 | 1.6 to 2.0 | 1.0 to 2.0 | 0.7 to 2.2 | 0.6 to 2.0 | 1.5 to 2.0 |
| Core PCE inflation3 | 1.3 to 1.6 | 1.3 to 1.8 | 1.4 to 2.0 | 1.1 to 2.0 | 1.1 to 2.0 | 1.2 to 2.0 | ||
| January projection | 1.0 to 1.3 | 1.0 to 1.5 | 1.2 to 2.0 | 0.7 to 1.8 | 0.6 to 2.0 | 0.6 to 2.0 | ||
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1340.68 as this post is written