The March 2011 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The March Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published March 14, 2011.  The headline is “Jobless Rate at 2012 Presidential Vote Forecast at 7.7%, Highest Since Carter-Ford, but the Trend May Matter Most.” I find the most notable aspects of this survey to be in the survey detail (spreadsheet), in which the economists “grade” …

Read more

Updates On Economic Indicators February 2011

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  (Past updates of these indicators, as well as previous posts discussing the individual indicators, can be found under “Economic Indicators“) : The February Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of February 24, 2011: – The Consumer Metrics …

Read more

Why Did Economists Not Foresee The Financial Crisis?

One of the critical issues that has arisen from the Financial Crisis and its aftermath was why didn’t economists foresee the Crisis? While I believe there are many reasons for this, some complex, it is interesting to read of reasons issued by one of today’s foremost economists, Raghuram Rajan, in his February 5 2011 blog …

Read more

Federal Reserve Economic Projections To 2013 And Beyond – As Of January 2011

The following is from the Minutes of The Federal Open Market Committee of January 25-26, 2011, the Summary of Economic Projections.  As stated: “In conjunction with the January 25–26, 2011, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the members of the Board of Governors and the presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks, all of whom participate …

Read more

The February 2011 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The February Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published February 14, 2011.  The headline is “Consumer and Business Spending to Spur Expanding U.S. Economy.” I found this excerpt from the article to be notable: “Since late last summer, the economy appears to have strengthened considerably. The economists put the risk of a return to …

Read more

A Look Back – 2008 Economic Forecasts

For a variety of reasons, I believe the economic forecasts previous to and during the “Financial Crisis” of late ’08 – early ’09 deserve scrutiny.  I have assembled a variety of the more notable forecasts and opinions of the period in a document titled “Predictions.” Additionally, I would like to highlight the August 2008 Wall …

Read more

Conference Board CEO Confidence 4Q 2010

On December 27, I wrote a post about the latest Business Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Survey and the Duke/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey. Subsequent to that post, the Conference Board released its 4th Quarter CEO Confidence Survey.   The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 62, up from 50 in the third quarter. An …

Read more

Updates On Economic Indicators January 2011

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The January Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of January 27, 2011: – The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch: – The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: …

Read more

The January 2011 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The January Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published January 14, 2011.  The headline is “Economists Optimistic On Growth.” I found a variety of topics seen in the Q&A (spreadsheet tab) to be interesting, including questions on “Grading Central Bankers” and “QE2”. The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following: GDP: full-year …

Read more

CEO & CFO Surveys 4Q 2010

On December 14 the Business Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Survey was released for the 4th quarter.  The December Duke/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey was also released on December 14.  Both contain a variety of statistics regarding how executives view business and economic conditions. In the CEO survey, of particular interest is the CEO Economic …

Read more