CEO Confidence Surveys 3Q 2012 – Notable Excerpts

On October 4, The Conference Board released its 3rd Quarter CEO Confidence Survey.   The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 42, down from 47 in the second quarter.

Notable excerpts from this October 4 Press Release include:

Says Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board: “This latest report reflects ongoing concern about the strength of the economy. CEOs’ assessment of current conditions remains weak and they have grown increasingly pessimistic about the short-term outlook. Sluggish growth and a persistent cloud of uncertainty have played a role in CEOs curtailing spending plans this year.”


CEOs’ optimism about the short-term outlook has also declined. Currently, less than 12 percent of business leaders expect economic conditions to improve over the next six months, down from 20 percent last quarter. Expectations for their own industries are also more pessimistic, with just 15 percent of CEOs anticipating an improvement in conditions in the months ahead, down from 25 percent in the second quarter.

The Business Roundtable also recently released its CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 3rd Quarter of 2012.   Notable excerpts from the September 26 release, titled “America’s CEOs Sharply Reduce Expectations for U.S. Economy” include the following:

The results of Business Roundtable’s (BRT) third quarter CEO Economic Outlook Survey for 2012 show a further downturn in CEOs’ expectations for sales, capital spending and hiring for the next six months. The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Survey Index decreased to 66.0 in the third quarter of 2012 from 89.1 in the second quarter of 2012, the lowest reading since the third quarter of 2009 and the third largest single quarter drop in the survey’s history.


In terms of the overall U.S. economy, Business Roundtable members estimate real GDP will grow by 1.9 percent in 2012, down from last quarter’s estimate of 2.1 percent.


I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.


The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1456.04 as this post is written