America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The Philadelphia Fed Third Quarter 2011 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on August 12. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following expectations: GDP: full-year 2011 : 1.7% full-year 2012 : 2.6% full-year 2013 : 2.9% full-year …
The August Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published August 12, 2011. The headline is “Feeble Numbers Stir Recession Fears.” I found various aspects of the survey to be interesting, including the following excerpts: The 46 economists in the survey—not all of whom answer every question—put the odds that the U.S. is already in another …
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The July Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of July 25, 2011: – The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch: – The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: An excerpt …
The July Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published July 18, 2011. The headline is “Dearth of Demand Seen Behind Weak Hiring.” I found various aspects of the survey to be interesting, including the following excerpts: In the survey, conducted July 8-13 and released Monday, 53 economists—not all of whom answer every question—were asked the …
On June 20, I wrote a post about the latest Business Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Survey and the Duke/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey titled “CEO & CFO Surveys 2Q 2011.” Subsequent to that post, on July 8, the Conference Board released its 2nd Quarter CEO Confidence Survey. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at …
On March 28 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Here is the most recent chart. This chart was last updated on June 30, incorporating data from 12-31-93 to 6-24-11 on a weekly basis. The present level …
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The June Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of June 23, 2011: – The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch: – The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: An …
Recently McKinsey released their “Economic Conditions Snapshot, June 2011” As stated in the survey: Over the past three months, executives around the world have grown more pessimistic about their nations’ economies: compared with three months ago, a smaller share say their economies improved over the past six months, and slightly more expect worsening conditions over the …
On June 14 the Business Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Survey was released for the 2nd quarter. The June Duke/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey was released on June 8. Both contain a variety of statistics regarding how executives view business and economic conditions. In the CEO survey, of particular interest is the CEO Economic Outlook Index, which …
The June Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published June 13, 2011. The headline is “Sluggish Hiring Seen as a Threat to Recovery.” I found various aspects of the survey to be interesting. One was “On average, the economists put the chances of a double-dip recession in the next year at just 16%, but …