America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
One doesn’t hear much about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) with regard to measuring stress in the financial system. Here is a document (pdf) that explains the construction of this index. My thoughts on this index are varied and complex. For now, I am simply posting it as a reference, as I …
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. (Past updates of these indicators, as well as previous posts discussing the individual indicators, can be found under “Economic Indicators“) : The March Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of March 21, 2011: – The Consumer Metrics …
The March Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published March 14, 2011. The headline is “Jobless Rate at 2012 Presidential Vote Forecast at 7.7%, Highest Since Carter-Ford, but the Trend May Matter Most.” I find the most notable aspects of this survey to be in the survey detail (spreadsheet), in which the economists “grade” …
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. (Past updates of these indicators, as well as previous posts discussing the individual indicators, can be found under “Economic Indicators“) : The February Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of February 24, 2011: – The Consumer Metrics …
One of the critical issues that has arisen from the Financial Crisis and its aftermath was why didn’t economists foresee the Crisis? While I believe there are many reasons for this, some complex, it is interesting to read of reasons issued by one of today’s foremost economists, Raghuram Rajan, in his February 5 2011 blog …
The following is from the Minutes of The Federal Open Market Committee of January 25-26, 2011, the Summary of Economic Projections. As stated: “In conjunction with the January 25–26, 2011, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the members of the Board of Governors and the presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks, all of whom participate …
The February Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published February 14, 2011. The headline is “Consumer and Business Spending to Spur Expanding U.S. Economy.” I found this excerpt from the article to be notable: “Since late last summer, the economy appears to have strengthened considerably. The economists put the risk of a return to …
For a variety of reasons, I believe the economic forecasts previous to and during the “Financial Crisis” of late ’08 – early ’09 deserve scrutiny. I have assembled a variety of the more notable forecasts and opinions of the period in a document titled “Predictions.” Additionally, I would like to highlight the August 2008 Wall …
On December 27, I wrote a post about the latest Business Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Survey and the Duke/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey. Subsequent to that post, the Conference Board released its 4th Quarter CEO Confidence Survey. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 62, up from 50 in the third quarter. An …
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The January Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of January 27, 2011: – The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch: – The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: …