America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The October 2015 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of October 22, 2015: – The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index): As of October 16, 2015 (incorporating data through October …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 15, 2015 update (reflecting data through October 9) is -.706. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of …
As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 12 of “The Director’s Report” (pdf) of October 19, 2015, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the Year …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of October 14, 2015: Year 2015 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $110.81/share …
This post is an update to past posts regarding stock market volatility. While I track many different measures of volatility, I find the following charts to be both simple and clear in depicting the recent increased volatility in the stock market. Overall, my analyses indicates that there are many reasons for this volatility, and the volatility …
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. Doug Short, in his blog post of October 15, 2015, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index Business …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 15, 2015 update (reflecting data through October 9) is -.706. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
On October 9, 2015, The Conference Board and PwC released the 3rd Quarter Measure Of CEO Confidence. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 48, down from 58 in the second quarter. [note: a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses] Notable excerpts from this October 9 Press Release include: …
I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 76 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable. These …