Markets During Periods Of Federal Reserve Intervention – October 13, 2015 Update

In the August 9, 2011 post (“QE3 – Various Thoughts“) I posted a chart that depicted the movements of the S&P500, 10-Year Treasury Yield and the Fed Funds rate spanning the periods of various Federal Reserve interventions since 2007. For reference purposes, here is an updated chart (through October 8, 2015) from Doug Short’s blog …

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NFIB Small Business Optimism – September 2015

The September NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, October 13, 2015. The headline of the Small Business Economic Trends report is “Small Business Optimism Continues To Be Low.” The Index of Small Business Optimism increased .2 points in September to 96.1. Here are some excerpts from that I find particularly notable (but don’t …

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October 2015 IMF Report – Probabilities Of Recession And Deflation

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently published the October 2015 “World Economic Outlook.” (pdf)  The subtitle is “World Economic Outlook:  Adjusting to Lower Commodity Prices.” One area of the report is Figure 1.15 on page 22.  While I do not agree with the current readings of the two measures presented – Probability of Recession and …

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Deflation Probabilities – October 8, 2015 Update

While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …

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The October 2015 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The October Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 8, 2015.  The headline is “WSJ Survey:  Economists See U.S. on Cusp of ‘Full’ Employment,” WSJ Survey Says.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” …

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Trends Of U.S. Treasury Yields – October 8, 2015 Update

For references purposes, below are two charts that show the trend in interest rates for various Treasuries, including the 3-Month, 2-Year, 5-Year, 7-Year, and 10-Year. A chart showing the interest rate trends of the last 20 years, on a monthly basis: (click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by …

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Building Financial Danger – October 8, 2015 Update

On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.”  This post is a brief 53nd update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written …

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the October 1, 2015 update (reflecting data through September 25) is -.685. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …

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