Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The October 2015 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of October 22, 2015:
As of October 16, 2015 (incorporating data through October 9, 2015) the WLI was at 128.7 and the WLI, Gr. was at -2.2%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s post of October 16, 2015, titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index: ‘Recession Kills Inflation’“:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through October 17, 2015:
The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):
As per the October 22, 2015 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Declined Slightly,” (pdf) the LEI was at 123.3, the CEI was at 112.8, and the LAG was 119.0 in September.
An excerpt from the October 22 release:
“Despite September’s decline, the U.S. LEI still suggests economic expansion will continue, although at a moderate pace,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “The recent weakness in stock markets, the manufacturing sector and housing permits was offset by gains in financial indicators, and to a lesser extent improvements in consumer expectations and initial claims for unemployment insurance. The U.S. economy is on track for moderate growth of about 2.5 percent in the coming quarters, despite the mixed global economic landscape.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of October 22 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index Declined in September“:
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2045.94 as this post is written