On October 9, 2015, The Conference Board and PwC released the 3rd Quarter Measure Of CEO Confidence. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 48, down from 58 in the second quarter. [note: a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses]
Notable excerpts from this October 9 Press Release include:
CEOs’ assessment of current economic conditions was considerably less positive than in the second quarter. Now, just 19 percent say conditions are better compared to six months ago, down from 46 percent last quarter. Likewise, business leaders’ assessment of conditions in their own industries was less positive, with just 18 percent claiming conditions in their own industries have improved, compared with 49 percent in the previous quarter.
CEOs are also less optimistic regarding the short-term outlook than earlier this year. Slightly over 22 percent of business leaders expect economic conditions will improve over the next six months, down from 38 percent last quarter. Expectations for their own industries were also more pessimistic, with less than 17 percent of CEOs anticipating an improvement versus 40 percent in the second quarter.
The Business Roundtable last month also released its CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 3rd Quarter of 2015. Notable excerpts from the September 15 release, titled “CEO Economic Outlook Signals Caution for Remainder of 2015”:
CEOs are cautious about the U.S. economy’s near-term prospects and are trimming business plans for capital investment over the next six months, according to the Business Roundtable third quarter 2015 CEO Economic Outlook Survey, released today.
The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index – a composite of CEO projections for sales and plans for capital spending and hiring over the next six months – declined 7.2 points, from 81.3 in the second quarter of 2015 to 74.1 in the third quarter.
CEOs now expect GDP growth of 2.4 percent in 2015, a 0.1 percentage point decline from last quarter’s projection. CEO expectations for sales and hiring for the next six months decreased by 11.1 and 7.9 points, respectively. Expectations for capital spending slipped by a more modest 2.4 points, its second consecutive decline.
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2002.81 as this post is written