S&P500 Earnings Estimates For 2010 & 2011

As many are aware, Standard & Poors publishes earnings estimates on a quarterly basis. Currently, their estimates for 2010 add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $81.72/share -From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of $71.32/share -From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $64.84/share Currently, their estimates for … Read moreS&P500 Earnings Estimates For 2010 & 2011

“From Bubble To Bubble To Bubble”

I ran across the following weekly S&P500 chart and comment from Maurice Walker, of thechartpatterntrader.com at StockCharts.com.  Although I do not necessarily agree with all of the chart’s annotations and the accompanying commentary, I definitely think that both are worthy of contemplation: chart courtesy of StockCharts.com (one can click on the chart to enlarge the … Read more“From Bubble To Bubble To Bubble”

Updates On Economic Indicators

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The May Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) (pdf) updated as of May 24, 2010: The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch: The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: An … Read moreUpdates On Economic Indicators

MacroMarkets Home Price Expectations Survey

On May 19 The Wall Street Journal had an article about a new housing survey called the MacroMarkets Home Price Expectations Survey. From the MacroMarkets.com website: “MacroMarkets has assembled a distinguished panel of over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts who are surveyed every month regarding their 5-year expectations for future home prices … Read moreMacroMarkets Home Price Expectations Survey

Four Erroneous Phrases

Over the last few months, four phrases have been used frequently in describing our economic condition.  I find these phrases to be inaccurate and misleading. Here are the four phrases (in italics) and some brief commentary: “the Great Recession” Many people have labeled the economic weakness (ended by the subsequent purported economic recovery) as “the … Read moreFour Erroneous Phrases

The “Paycheck To Paycheck” Condition

Yesterday The Wall Street Journal had a story about Wal-Mart’s results. I found two aspects of the story notable.  First, the sales results seemed particularly low in relation to the recent widespread media coverage of strong retail sales.  Wal-Mart “said that U.S. sales at stores open at least a year fell 1.1%, and store visits … Read moreThe “Paycheck To Paycheck” Condition

The May 2010 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The May Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey focuses on the economic problems in Europe and the odds of The Federal Reserve increasing interest rates. As seen in the detail of this survey, the current average forecasts for December 31, 2010 among economists polled include the following: Ten-Year Treasury Yield: 4.16% CPI: 1.8% Unemployment: 9.3% … Read moreThe May 2010 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

Milton Friedman On Monetary And Fiscal Policy

I found this passage from Milton Friedman in 1958, as seen on John B. Taylor’s blog, to be notable, especially given the immense monetary and fiscal policy actions taken to “improve” our economic situation: “The available evidence…casts grave doubt on the possibility of producing any fine adjustments in economic activity by fine adjustments in monetary … Read moreMilton Friedman On Monetary And Fiscal Policy