On May 19 The Wall Street Journal had an article about a new housing survey called the MacroMarkets Home Price Expectations Survey.
From the MacroMarkets.com website:
“MacroMarkets has assembled a distinguished panel of over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts who are surveyed every month regarding their 5-year expectations for future home prices in the United States.”
The Wall Street Journal article summarized the May 2010 survey results as follows:
“The analysts surveyed by MacroMarkets on average expect home prices, as measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller national index, to rise about 12% in the five years ending Dec. 31, 2014. As of Dec. 31, that index was down about 28% from its peak level in mid-2006.”
However, if one looks at the detail (pdf), one sees a significant differing of opinions, with the highest cumulative gain (through 2014) expected to be 36.74% and the lowest a loss of 17.99%.
This survey should be interesting to watch as it provides a relatively broad view of housing price expectations on a recurring basis.
As for the survey results – I find them interesting. The overall consensus view on housing seems to mirror this survey’s average forecasted results – that of mild but steady home price appreciation over the next few years.
I’ve written extensively about housing, as it is of the utmost importance to our economic situation. Our national real estate problems are vastly complex and highly problematical. Perhaps my overall view on the situation and the path of housing prices is best summarized by my January 8, 2010 post.
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SPX at 1087.69 as this post is written