Tag Archives: Real Estate

Zillow Q4 2018 Home Price Expectations Survey – Summary & Comments

On December 4, 2018, the Zillow Q4 2018 Home Price Expectations Survey results were released.  This survey is done on a quarterly basis.

Two excerpts from the press release:

The quarterly survey, sponsored by Zillow and conducted by Pulsenomics LLC, asked more than 100 real estate economists and investment experts for their predictions about the U.S. housing market, including which three markets they believe are most likely to outperform the U.S., and which three are most likely to underperform in 2019.

also:

The average expected home price appreciation rate for next year is 3.8 percent, down from 4.2 percent in the previous quarter. Also, the panel’s expected annual growth rate over the next five years ticked down to 3.4 percent.

Various Q4 2018 Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey charts are available, including that seen below:

Zillow Q4 2018 Home Price Expectations chart

As one can see from the above chart, the average expectation is that the residential real estate market, as depicted by the U.S. Zillow Home Value Index, will continually climb.

The detail of the Q4 2018 Home Price Expectations Survey (pdf) is interesting.  Of the 100+ survey respondents, only four (of the displayed responses) forecasts a cumulative price decrease through 2023, and none of those forecasts is for a double-digit percentage decline.   The largest decline is seen as a 6.51% cumulative price decrease through 2023.

The Median Cumulative Home Price Appreciation for years 2018-2023 is seen as 5.80%, 10.05%, 13.15%, 16.27%, and 19.70%, and 23.20%, respectively.

For a variety of reasons, I continue to believe that even the most “bearish” of these forecasts (as seen in the above-referenced forecast) will prove far too optimistic in hindsight.  From a longer-term historical perspective, such a decline is very mild in light of the wild excesses that occurred over the “bubble” years.

I have written extensively about the residential real estate situation.  For a variety of reasons, it is exceedingly complex.  While many people continue to have an optimistic view regarding future residential real estate prices, in my opinion such a view is unsupported on an “all things considered” basis.  Furthermore, from these price levels there exists outsized potential for a price decline of severe magnitude, unfortunately.  I discussed this downside, based upon historical price activity, in the October 24, 2010 post titled “What’s Ahead For The Housing Market – A Look At The Charts.”

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2700.06 as this post is written

House Prices Reference Chart

As a reference for long-term house price index trends, below is a chart, updated with the most current data (through September) from the CalculatedRisk blog post of November 27, 2018 titled “Case-Shiller:  National House Price Index increased 5.5% year-over-year in September”:

Case-Shiller indexes

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2675.07 as this post is written

Zillow Q3 2018 Home Price Expectations Survey – Summary & Comments

On August 28, 2018, the Zillow Q3 2018 Home Price Expectations Survey results were released.  This survey is done on a quarterly basis.

An excerpt from the press release:

Annual home-value appreciation has been faster in 2018 than it was in 2017, and inventory has fallen on a year-over-year basis for 42 consecutive months. These conditions have put sellers in the driver’s seat for the past few years.

Recently, though, data suggest the balance may be starting to tilt back toward buyers. Home-value growth is slowing in more than half of the nation’s 35 largest metros, and price cuts are becoming more common. But even in those markets where appreciation has slowed, it remains above its historic average rate and sellers continue to have the upper hand, particularly at the most affordable price points. Three out of four economists surveyedii said the national housing market would not shift to a buyers market until 2020 or later.

Various Q3 2018 Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey charts are available, including that seen below:

U.S. Home Price Expectations chart

As one can see from the above chart, the average expectation is that the residential real estate market, as depicted by the U.S. Zillow Home Value Index, will continually climb.

The detail of the Q3 2018 Home Price Expectations Survey (pdf) is interesting.  Of the 115 survey respondents, only three (of the displayed responses) forecasts a cumulative price decrease through 2022, and none of those forecasts is for a double-digit percentage decline.   The largest decline is seen as a 3.4% cumulative price decrease through 2022.

The Median Cumulative Home Price Appreciation for years 2018-2022 is seen as 6.00%, 10.45%, 13.82%, 16.64%, and 19.80%, respectively.

For a variety of reasons, I continue to believe that even the most “bearish” of these forecasts (as seen in the above-referenced forecast) will prove far too optimistic in hindsight.  From a longer-term historical perspective, such a decline is very mild in light of the wild excesses that occurred over the “bubble” years.

I have written extensively about the residential real estate situation.  For a variety of reasons, it is exceedingly complex.  While many people continue to have an optimistic view regarding future residential real estate prices, in my opinion such a view is unsupported on an “all things considered” basis.  Furthermore, from these price levels there exists outsized potential for a price decline of severe magnitude, unfortunately.  I discussed this downside, based upon historical price activity, in the October 24, 2010 post titled “What’s Ahead For The Housing Market – A Look At The Charts.”

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2897.87 as this post is written

House Prices Reference Chart

As a reference for long-term house price index trends, below is a chart, updated with the most current data (through June) from the CalculatedRisk blog post of August 28, 2018 titled “Case-Shiller:  National House Price Index increased 6.2% year-over-year in June”:

U.S. house price indexes

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2897.51 as this post is written

House Prices Reference Chart

As a reference for long-term house price index trends, below is a chart, updated with the most current data (through March) from the CalculatedRisk blog post of May 29, 2018 titled “Case-Shiller:  National House Price Index increased 6.5% year-over-year in March”:

U.S. home price indices

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2686.27 as this post is written

Zillow Q2 2018 Home Price Expectations Survey – Summary & Comments

On May 22, 2018, the Zillow Q2 2018 Home Price Expectations Survey results were released.  This survey is done on a quarterly basis.

An excerpt from the press release:

In the meantime, experts think the housing market will continue to experience strong appreciation. They predict U.S. home values will rise 5.5 percent in 2018 to a median of $220,800. At this time last year, predictions were for home values to rise 3.7 percent in 2018.

“Constrained home supply, persistent demand, very low unemployment, and steady economic growth have given a jolt to the near-term outlook for U.S. home prices,” said Pulsenomics founder, Terry Loebs. “These conditions are overshadowing concerns that mortgage rate increases expected this year might quash the appetite of prospective home buyers.”

Various Q2 2018 Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey charts are available, including that seen below:

Zillow U.S. Home Price Expectations

As one can see from the above chart, the average expectation is that the residential real estate market, as depicted by the U.S. Zillow Home Value Index, will continually climb.

The detail of the Q2 2018 Home Price Expectations Survey (pdf) is interesting.  Of the 100+ survey respondents, only five (of the displayed responses) forecasts a cumulative price decrease through 2022, and none of those forecasts is for a double-digit percentage decline.   The largest decline is seen as a 7.86% cumulative price decrease through 2022.

The Median Cumulative Home Price Appreciation for years 2018-2022 is seen as 5.75%, 10.24%, 13.53%, 16.75%, and 20.46%, respectively.

For a variety of reasons, I continue to believe that even the most “bearish” of these forecasts (as seen in the above-referenced forecast) will prove far too optimistic in hindsight.  From a longer-term historical perspective, such a decline is very mild in light of the wild excesses that occurred over the “bubble” years.

I have written extensively about the residential real estate situation.  For a variety of reasons, it is exceedingly complex.  While many people continue to have an optimistic view regarding future residential real estate prices, in my opinion such a view is unsupported on an “all things considered” basis.  Furthermore, from these price levels there exists outsized potential for a price decline of severe magnitude, unfortunately.  I discussed this downside, based upon historical price activity, in the October 24, 2010 post titled “What’s Ahead For The Housing Market – A Look At The Charts.”

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2724.44 as this post is written

House Prices Reference Chart

As a reference for long-term house price index trends, below is a chart, updated with the most current data (through December) from the CalculatedRisk blog post of February 27, 2018 titled “Case-Shiller:  National House Price Index increased 6.3% year-over-year in December”:

(click on chart to enlarge image)

Case-Shiller indexes

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2757.47 as this post is written

Zillow Q1 2018 Home Price Expectations Survey – Summary & Comments

On February 20, 2018, the Zillow Q1 2018 Home Price Expectations Survey results were released.  This survey is done on a quarterly basis.

An excerpt from the press release:

The quarterly survey, sponsored by Zillow and conducted by Pulsenomics LLC, asked more than 100 housing experts and economists about their expectations for home price growth, and whether tax reform affected these predictions.

When asked how the new tax law impacted their five-year forecast for home values in the U.S., 41 percent of respondents said their overall housing outlook is now more pessimistic, while 31 percent of the panelists had a more optimistic view as a result of the tax reform. The remaining 28 percent of respondents said that tax reform did not change their outlook.

Various Q1 2018 Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey charts are available, including that seen below:

Zillow U.S. Home Price Expectations

As one can see from the above chart, the average expectation is that the residential real estate market, as depicted by the U.S. Zillow Home Value Index, will continually climb.

The detail of the Q1 2018 Home Price Expectations Survey (pdf) is interesting.  Of the 105 survey respondents, only three (of the displayed responses) forecasts a cumulative price decrease through 2022, and none of those forecasts is for a double-digit percentage decline.   The largest decline is seen as a 4.5% cumulative price decrease through 2022.

The Median Cumulative Home Price Appreciation for years 2018-2022 is seen as 5.00%, 9.10%, 12.49%, 15.85%, and 19.33%, respectively.

For a variety of reasons, I continue to believe that even the most “bearish” of these forecasts (as seen in the above-referenced forecast) will prove far too optimistic in hindsight.  From a longer-term historical perspective, such a decline is very mild in light of the wild excesses that occurred over the “bubble” years.

I have written extensively about the residential real estate situation.  For a variety of reasons, it is exceedingly complex.  While many people continue to have an optimistic view regarding future residential real estate prices, in my opinion such a view is unsupported on an “all things considered” basis.  Furthermore, from these price levels there exists outsized potential for a price decline of severe magnitude, unfortunately.  I discussed this downside, based upon historical price activity, in the October 24, 2010 post titled “What’s Ahead For The Housing Market – A Look At The Charts.”

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2701.33 as this post is written

Zillow Q4 2017 Home Price Expectations Survey – Summary & Comments

On December 5, 2017, the Zillow Q4 2017 Home Price Expectations Survey results were released.  This survey is done on a quarterly basis.

An excerpt from the press release:

Panelists views on the pace of home value growth have consistently grown over the past several quarters, likely because of low mortgage rates spurring demand and low inventory constricting supply – a recipe for rapid home value growth that has been in place for the past several years. On average, panelists said they expect home values to end this year up 5.6 percent from the end of 2016 (as of October 2017, median U.S. home values were up 6.5 percent year-over-year. Panelists said they expected home values to end 2018 up 4.13 percent from the end of this year, on average. At the end of 2016, the same panelists said they expected home values to end 2017 up 3.61 percent and 2018 up just 2.97 percent year-over-year, on average.

Various Q4 2017 Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey charts are available, including that seen below:

U.S. Home Price Expectations

As one can see from the above chart, the average expectation is that the residential real estate market, as depicted by the U.S. Zillow Home Value Index, will continually climb.

The detail of the Q4 2017 Home Price Expectations Survey (pdf) is interesting.  Of the 100+ survey respondents, only two (of the displayed responses) forecasts a cumulative price decrease through 2022, and only one of those forecasts is for a double-digit percentage decline.  That forecast is from Mark Hanson, who foresees a 20.52% cumulative price decrease through 2021.

The Median Cumulative Home Price Appreciation for years 2017-2022 is seen as 5.60%, 10.25%, 13.65%, 17.13%, 20.55%, and 24.34%, respectively.

For a variety of reasons, I continue to believe that even the most “bearish” of these forecasts (as seen in Mark Hanson’s above-referenced forecast) will prove too optimistic in hindsight.  From a longer-term historical perspective, such a decline is very mild in light of the wild excesses that occurred over the “bubble” years.

I have written extensively about the residential real estate situation.  For a variety of reasons, it is exceedingly complex.  While many people continue to have an optimistic view regarding future residential real estate prices, in my opinion such a view is unsupported on an “all things considered” basis.  Furthermore, from these price levels there exists outsized potential for a price decline of severe magnitude, unfortunately.  I discussed this downside, based upon historical price activity, in the October 24, 2010 post titled “What’s Ahead For The Housing Market – A Look At The Charts.”

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2629.20 as this post is written

House Prices Reference Chart

As a reference for long-term house price index trends, below is a chart, updated with the most current data (through September) from the CalculatedRisk blog post of November 28, 2017 titled “Case-Shiller:  National House Price Index increased 6.2% year-over-year in September”:

(click on chart to enlarge image)

Case-Shiller Nominal

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2627.04 as this post is written