Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The July Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of July 23, 2012:
The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:
An excerpt from the July 19 update titled “Index forecasts weaker growth” :
The July update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, slowing to 1.6% in July and then increasing to 2% by year end. While employment, housing (mostly the multifamily sector) and consumer spending are slowly recovering, concerns about the Eurozone and world growth continue.
The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
As of 7/20/12 (incorporating data through 7/13/12) the WLI was at 121.9 and the WLI, Gr. was at -2.3%.
A chart of the WLI, Gr. since 2000, from Doug Short’s blog of July 20 titled “ECRI Recession Call: Weekly Leading Index Declines” :
The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:
Here is the latest chart, depicting 7-14-10 to 7-14-12:
The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:
As per the July 19 release, the LEI was at 95.6 and the CEI was at 104.5 in June.
An excerpt from the July 19 release:
Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “The U.S. economy is growing very slowly. The CEI basically reflects this steady but soft pace of overall economic activity. The LEI is pointing to no strengthening over the next few months, as the economy continues to sail through strong headwinds domestically and internationally.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of July 19, titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index: ‘Sustained Weak Growth Through The Fall’” :
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1339.98 as this post is written